Popular in Social Sciences

Political Science

V-Dem’s Conceptions of Democracy and Their Consequences

University of Notre Dame Michael Coppedge

Central Monetary Authorities

Macroeconomic modelling of CBDC: a critical review

European Central Bank Ulrich Bindseil

Social Identities and Divisions

A new explanation of antisemitism: Jew hatred as a civilisational phenomenon

Boston University Liah Greenfeld

Central Monetary Authorities

Financing Private Credit

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nina Boyarchenko

Economics

Failing Banks

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Emil Verner

Culture and Society

The City as a Growth Machine: Toward a Political Economy of Place

New York University Harvey Moltoch

American Politics

Floods, droughts, and environmental circumscription in early state development

View more insights in Social Sciences - Economics - Microeconomics

View more figures from University of Gothenburg

View the page of Ola Olsson

Read the Study

Next in Economics

How rich are the rich?

Gil Manzon | Boston College

Corruption and supply-side economics

Wilbur John Coleman | Duke University

What explains the origins and survival of the first states around 5000 years ago? Ola Olsson discusses the role of weather-related productivity shocks for early state development in ancient Egypt.

Image courtesy of interviewee. November 7, 2024

Log-in or Sign-up to Faculti
Currently viewing this subject insight as a guest. You have insight(s) remaining for this month. Login to view 8000+ figures on the platform.

Generating Workspace...

Export as PDF

This video discusses the relationship between early state formation, agriculture, and climate change, focusing especially on ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia as prime examples of early civilizations. The speaker emphasizes how agricultural productivity, influenced by the flooding of the Nile and other climate factors, was crucial for the development of these societies. The predictability of Nile floods contributed to a stable agricultural environment but also made the population less mobile, thus enabling rulers to impose taxes and control governance more effectively.

This video explores the consequences of climate variability, particularly droughts, which can lead to political instability and societal upheaval, as evidenced by historical periods of disintegration in Egypt. It mentions the importance of reliable climate data from various sources, including stalagmites and stalactites, to study these patterns. The speaker also draws parallels between ancient civilizations and contemporary issues, such as migration driven by climate change in modern Africa, suggesting that lessons from the past can inform our understanding of current climate challenges.

Language:

Export as PDF

Export as PDF
Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Interest in Early States and Agriculture**: The author has a long-standing interest in early state formation and how agricultural production influenced the development of these societies, particularly in the convideo of climate change.

2. **Role of the Nile in Ancient Egypt**: The flooding of the Nile, dependent on monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands, was crucial for agriculture and the rise of advanced civilizations like ancient Egypt, leading to high population density and stability in resource flow.

3. **Environmental Circumscription**: The fertile land along the Nile created a scenario where people had limited options to leave, resulting in a society that was easier to control and tax, contrasting with regions where populations could escape state control more easily.

4. **Impact of Climate Variability on Political Stability**: The study examines the effects of Nile flood variability on political stability in Egypt, noting that both too much and too little flooding can be disruptive, with severe droughts leading to political turmoil and state collapse.

5. **Methodology and Data Used for Analysis**: The author discusses using paleoclimatic data, such as isotopic compositions from stalagmites, to analyze historical rainfall patterns and their correlations with political events, contributing to a broader understanding of the dynamics of early civilizations.

Export as PDF
Here are some key quotes and concepts from the video you :

1. **Interest in Early States and Agriculture**:
- "I've had a longstanding interest in particularly these early states, and also the link to their productive methods, agriculture and how agriculture production actually impacted on the formation and development of early states."

2. **Climate Change as a Historical Driver**:
- "There’s a particular interesting variation in terms of climate change, which has just been, of course, a driving factor historically throughout all periods."

3. **Significance of Mesopotamia and Egypt**:
- "I'm also particularly interested in Mesopotamia, in Egypt, which, I think are the prime examples of early civilization emerging."

4. **Importance of Nile Floods**:
- "Everyone knows that the Nile floods were essential for the agriculture way of life in Egypt."

5. **Environmental Circumscription**:
- "Egypt, it's the archetypical society for what we call environmental circumscription, incredibly fertile Nile shores, but then a hinterland, often that was very dry and unproductive."

6. **Population Control through Taxation**:
- "If a ruler can control such a population, they simply have nowhere to go, and it's easier than to tax them, and they will accept taxes because the exit option is simply not there."

7. **Impact of Drought on Political Stability**:
- "The worst situation is actually drought periods... in periods of extreme droughts, then, the state is in turmoil."

8. **Indicators of Political Instability**:
- "The main indicator is political instability in the shape of a Pharaoh or ruler changes. So the more changes there are during a period, that's our indicator of instability."

9. **Correlation of Climate and Construction Activities**:
- "We note that it also seems to be more common during moderate Nile flood years."

10. **Migration and Climate Change**:
- "Part of that migration flows are actually driven by climate change, and they want to get to the core, which is not the Nile shores, but Europe."

These quotes highlight the relationship between environmental factors, agricultural productivity, state formation, and political stability, emphasizing the significant impact of climate variability on early civilizations.

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP=LOCAL:00:00:00.000,MPEGTS:90000

1
00:00:00.075 --> 00:00:02.925
I've had a longstanding interest in particularly these

2
00:00:02.925 --> 00:00:04.005
early states,

3
00:00:04.185 --> 00:00:08.685
and also the link to, their productive methods,

4
00:00:09.155 --> 00:00:10.845
agriculture and

5
00:00:11.025 --> 00:00:14.325
how agriculture production actually impacted on the

6
00:00:14.325 --> 00:00:16.285
formation and development of early states.

7
00:00:16.465 --> 00:00:17.685
So that's the key.

8
00:00:18.065 --> 00:00:20.565
And then of course, within that context,

9
00:00:20.955 --> 00:00:24.365
there's a particular interesting variation in terms

10
00:00:24.385 --> 00:00:27.205
of climate change, which has just been, of course,

11
00:00:27.325 --> 00:00:30.245
a driving factor historically throughout all periods,

12
00:00:30.265 --> 00:00:33.405
but which is also, of course, incredibly relevant today.

13
00:00:33.825 --> 00:00:35.205
Uh, when we think about

14
00:00:35.785 --> 00:00:37.605
how climate change affects societies.

15
00:00:38.705 --> 00:00:42.085
Uh, apart from that, I'm also particularly interested in,

16
00:00:42.265 --> 00:00:44.645
in Mesopotamia, in Egypt, which,

17
00:00:44.885 --> 00:00:48.285
I think are the prime examples of early what we,

18
00:00:49.075 --> 00:00:51.645
what we call typically call civilization emerging.

19
00:00:52.505 --> 00:00:54.325
Uh, it's the earliest cases of that.

20
00:00:54.505 --> 00:00:56.645
And there are many things that we can learn,

21
00:00:56.715 --> 00:00:58.085
from those two cases.

22
00:00:58.545 --> 00:01:01.285
In this case, it's just ancient Egypt, of course,

23
00:01:01.285 --> 00:01:02.925
but in other words, I've also looked at.

24
00:01:02.985 --> 00:01:04.125
But the context is certainly

25
00:01:04.125 --> 00:01:07.525
that these are first vast societies to emerge from,

26
00:01:07.755 --> 00:01:08.885
from, agriculture.

27
00:01:08.885 --> 00:01:10.485
Earlier agricultural societies,

28
00:01:10.865 --> 00:01:13.125
floods were absolutely essential

29
00:01:13.315 --> 00:01:15.565
because it's, it's Nile, of course,

30
00:01:15.565 --> 00:01:17.805
we're talking about the, the, the flow of water

31
00:01:17.805 --> 00:01:19.685
through the Nile, which, is,

32
00:01:19.785 --> 00:01:23.405
and the Nile is in turn fed by the blue and the white Nile.

33
00:01:23.475 --> 00:01:26.205
What we're mainly looking at here is the Blue Nile,

34
00:01:26.205 --> 00:01:29.565
which is the, then runs from the Ethiopian Highlands.

35
00:01:30.425 --> 00:01:34.445
So the, the water that flows, in the Nile

36
00:01:34.445 --> 00:01:36.565
that come from say June,

37
00:01:36.745 --> 00:01:40.085
and then runs up to September, are results

38
00:01:40.085 --> 00:01:44.365
of the monsoon rains that rain over the Ethiopian Highlands,

39
00:01:44.785 --> 00:01:46.085
and then, spread.

40
00:01:46.425 --> 00:01:48.565
So, so the main floods

41
00:01:48.565 --> 00:01:51.925
of the Nile are completely dependent on the rains

42
00:01:51.925 --> 00:01:53.365
that fall on the Ethiopian Highlands.

43
00:01:53.505 --> 00:01:55.085
And then these were, of course, the,

44
00:01:56.145 --> 00:01:59.605
the reason why there could be such an advanced civilization,

45
00:01:59.675 --> 00:02:03.565
such a high population density, because these floods

46
00:02:03.805 --> 00:02:07.365
provided a very stable flow of, resources,

47
00:02:07.365 --> 00:02:10.645
which were totally essential for the production of wheat

48
00:02:10.945 --> 00:02:14.205
and barley along the shores of the Nile.

49
00:02:14.345 --> 00:02:17.165
And, in, and also these floods came in a

50
00:02:17.165 --> 00:02:18.245
very regular fashion.

51
00:02:18.995 --> 00:02:21.365
Sometimes they were too high, sometimes they were too low

52
00:02:21.465 --> 00:02:23.965
as, we'll come back to, I think.

53
00:02:24.065 --> 00:02:28.285
But, these were essential for the way of life along,

54
00:02:28.375 --> 00:02:30.885
along the Nile and in ancient Egypt.

55
00:02:31.305 --> 00:02:32.725
The basic thing that we want to say

56
00:02:32.725 --> 00:02:34.925
with our framework is really that,

57
00:02:35.345 --> 00:02:37.765
all early societies is also

58
00:02:37.765 --> 00:02:39.245
among hunter gatherers and so on.

59
00:02:39.675 --> 00:02:44.445
There's a natural, inclination for people to want

60
00:02:44.445 --> 00:02:49.125
to exit and get out when, when a ruler becomes too strong

61
00:02:49.345 --> 00:02:52.365
or tells you too much what you should do.

62
00:02:53.185 --> 00:02:55.925
Uh, so it's a very natural inclination, we believe,

63
00:02:56.025 --> 00:02:57.965
for people to want to leave.

64
00:02:58.145 --> 00:03:01.885
And we see that all the time in, Mong hand togethers,

65
00:03:01.885 --> 00:03:05.045
for instance, that they splinter when they get too annoyed

66
00:03:05.045 --> 00:03:06.685
with, with a leader and so on.

67
00:03:07.185 --> 00:03:10.165
But that's when, only when they can do it.

68
00:03:10.265 --> 00:03:14.965
So in some environments, you get very,

69
00:03:15.515 --> 00:03:17.605
kind of, attached to the land,

70
00:03:17.705 --> 00:03:19.805
and it's also extremely productive.

71
00:03:19.825 --> 00:03:23.685
And also the hitter land is completely unproductive.

72
00:03:23.745 --> 00:03:25.045
So it means that you're more

73
00:03:25.045 --> 00:03:28.685
or less closed in, in this very productive,

74
00:03:29.405 --> 00:03:31.085
agricultural heaven, you might say.

75
00:03:31.865 --> 00:03:34.925
Uh, but it also means that populations will grow

76
00:03:34.925 --> 00:03:37.205
and that you're stuck there to a great extent.

77
00:03:37.705 --> 00:03:40.565
Uh, so in that sense, you're circumscribed in your,

78
00:03:40.825 --> 00:03:42.565
in your possibilities.

79
00:03:43.225 --> 00:03:46.565
And that means that if a ruler can control such a

80
00:03:46.565 --> 00:03:50.405
population, they simply have nowhere to go,

81
00:03:51.065 --> 00:03:53.885
and it's easier than to tax them,

82
00:03:54.065 --> 00:03:55.365
and they will accept taxes

83
00:03:55.365 --> 00:03:57.725
because the exit option is simply not there.

84
00:03:58.665 --> 00:04:03.085
Uh, in, in other places, if you try to form states

85
00:04:03.145 --> 00:04:05.965
and the, and the ruler tries to start taxing a population,

86
00:04:05.965 --> 00:04:09.365
they can simply take off, and the ruler knows this, and

87
00:04:09.365 --> 00:04:14.285
therefore he or she will not, actually have taxes

88
00:04:14.285 --> 00:04:15.845
because they know it's pointless.

89
00:04:16.715 --> 00:04:18.735
So it le leads to another equilibrium.

90
00:04:18.735 --> 00:04:23.295
But in Egypt, it's the archetypical society,

91
00:04:23.795 --> 00:04:26.975
for what we call environmental circumscription, incredibly

92
00:04:27.695 --> 00:04:28.935
fertile Nile shores,

93
00:04:28.995 --> 00:04:32.535
but then a hinterland, often that was very dry

94
00:04:32.635 --> 00:04:35.815
and unproductive, and you could impede in certain periods.

95
00:04:35.815 --> 00:04:37.375
You could live in the hinterland and,

96
00:04:38.035 --> 00:04:42.815
and live there, without, not being taxed,

97
00:04:42.875 --> 00:04:44.375
not being under the control of the state.

98
00:04:45.315 --> 00:04:48.455
Uh, but it was very often a very harsh experience.

99
00:04:48.455 --> 00:04:51.535
So most people, still had no choice

100
00:04:51.555 --> 00:04:53.415
but to stay in the state and be taxed.

101
00:04:53.615 --> 00:04:55.055
I mean, we, everyone knows

102
00:04:55.055 --> 00:04:58.495
that the Nile floods were essential for,

103
00:04:58.515 --> 00:05:00.455
the agriculture way of life in Egypt.

104
00:05:01.635 --> 00:05:04.855
The really difficult thing is to have an accurate assessment

105
00:05:04.995 --> 00:05:06.415
of the Nile floods and also

106
00:05:06.415 --> 00:05:08.295
of the rains then in the hinterland.

107
00:05:08.955 --> 00:05:13.095
So, so there, there are

108
00:05:13.885 --> 00:05:15.495
TERs data,

109
00:05:15.925 --> 00:05:19.095
meaning measurements in the Nile itself of the levels.

110
00:05:20.235 --> 00:05:24.495
Uh, but they have pretty, I mean, the, the, the,

111
00:05:24.495 --> 00:05:26.615
the data there is not available for all years,

112
00:05:26.675 --> 00:05:28.775
and it's very just a few select years.

113
00:05:28.835 --> 00:05:33.575
So what we are looking for is a more, reliable,

114
00:05:34.125 --> 00:05:35.575
indicator of rainfall.

115
00:05:35.995 --> 00:05:39.255
One of the most, often used, kind

116
00:05:39.255 --> 00:05:42.215
of data these days on, climate,

117
00:05:42.355 --> 00:05:47.135
and rainfall historically, is what's called, it's basically

118
00:05:48.075 --> 00:05:50.615
carbon archives in and,

119
00:05:50.755 --> 00:05:54.695
or, in tapes in the form of sal mites and stalactites.

120
00:05:55.435 --> 00:05:58.005
Uh, and so if you, you look, if you drill

121
00:05:58.005 --> 00:06:00.365
through aal mite in different layers,

122
00:06:00.505 --> 00:06:04.605
you each layer has a different chemical composition,

123
00:06:04.665 --> 00:06:07.685
of oxygen 18, which is, what we are looking at.

124
00:06:07.745 --> 00:06:10.165
And that in turn is a proxy for how much rain

125
00:06:10.715 --> 00:06:11.965
fell during different periods.

126
00:06:11.965 --> 00:06:14.565
And we're using for Nile floods

127
00:06:14.665 --> 00:06:17.765
and for the proxying rainfall in Ethiopia, we're using

128
00:06:18.395 --> 00:06:22.925
data from a cave in Oman, which should pick up the kind

129
00:06:22.925 --> 00:06:24.685
of rainfall pattern over Ethiopia.

130
00:06:25.625 --> 00:06:29.365
And for understanding the hinterland rainfall, we are,

131
00:06:29.365 --> 00:06:32.085
we are looking at, we're using data from a cave in

132
00:06:32.345 --> 00:06:36.485
Israel, sore cave, which should be a good proxy

133
00:06:36.625 --> 00:06:40.845
for them rainfall in the, in the area surrounding the valve.

134
00:06:40.905 --> 00:06:44.885
So it's this interaction between these two climate variables

135
00:06:44.885 --> 00:06:46.445
that we're exploiting in the paper.

136
00:06:46.635 --> 00:06:50.045
What we're basically looking at is whether,

137
00:06:51.505 --> 00:06:55.005
is, whether Nile floods you, you could imagine of course,

138
00:06:55.075 --> 00:06:59.045
that either, the too much floods is bad,

139
00:06:59.145 --> 00:07:01.285
or the too little floods is bad,

140
00:07:01.585 --> 00:07:03.445
either could be very disruptive.

141
00:07:04.265 --> 00:07:08.125
Um, so what we're actually trying to capture is,

142
00:07:08.225 --> 00:07:10.485
an intermediate level, which as,

143
00:07:10.615 --> 00:07:12.845
which actually also turns out to be the one

144
00:07:12.845 --> 00:07:16.325
that's most beneficial when floods are fairly predictable in

145
00:07:16.325 --> 00:07:21.085
an intermediate range, the worst, pattern in terms

146
00:07:21.105 --> 00:07:22.685
of political instability,

147
00:07:22.815 --> 00:07:24.845
which is the main variable we're looking at.

148
00:07:25.865 --> 00:07:29.485
Uh, so the worst situation is, is actually drought periods.

149
00:07:30.065 --> 00:07:32.925
So, so the main indicator,

150
00:07:33.345 --> 00:07:37.365
is political instability in the, in the, in the shape

151
00:07:37.365 --> 00:07:40.685
of a Pharaoh or ruler changes.

152
00:07:41.665 --> 00:07:44.325
So the more changes there are during a period,

153
00:07:44.325 --> 00:07:46.085
that's our indicator of instability.

154
00:07:46.465 --> 00:07:49.205
And now we correlate that with these weather,

155
00:07:49.665 --> 00:07:51.365
proxies that we have.

156
00:07:51.725 --> 00:07:54.445
I mean, if, if there are extreme droughts, for instance,

157
00:07:54.585 --> 00:07:58.405
and we know that that happened, it's even depicted on,

158
00:07:58.945 --> 00:08:01.925
in, Egyptian art and so on.

159
00:08:01.945 --> 00:08:05.045
And so it seems that in periods of extreme droughts, then,

160
00:08:05.865 --> 00:08:10.805
the state, is, is in turmoil.

161
00:08:10.985 --> 00:08:15.085
We have ruler that are replaced, quickly.

162
00:08:15.465 --> 00:08:18.605
And, and it might even be the case that the state

163
00:08:19.645 --> 00:08:22.125
collapses more or less like they did in, two periods.

164
00:08:22.145 --> 00:08:26.285
The first thing intermediate period around 2,100 bc

165
00:08:26.905 --> 00:08:31.325
and then in the second period around 1650 bc

166
00:08:32.115 --> 00:08:35.685
when more or less there was no centralized Egyptian states.

167
00:08:36.065 --> 00:08:39.805
So especially drought seems to be,

168
00:08:40.635 --> 00:08:42.845
very problematic and could be to state

169
00:08:43.465 --> 00:08:44.685
disintegration simply.

170
00:08:45.155 --> 00:08:47.525
Okay, but we're actually also looking at some other

171
00:08:47.525 --> 00:08:51.325
indicators like pyramid construction intensity.

172
00:08:52.505 --> 00:08:54.565
Uh, so we have a measure of,

173
00:08:55.585 --> 00:08:57.165
Uh, the size

174
00:08:57.385 --> 00:08:59.925
and number of pyramids built, which is of course,

175
00:09:00.085 --> 00:09:03.925
a huge project, which, with massive labor requirements

176
00:09:03.985 --> 00:09:05.565
and massive resource requirements.

177
00:09:06.185 --> 00:09:08.085
And we are correlating that with,

178
00:09:08.085 --> 00:09:09.165
these climate variations.

179
00:09:09.265 --> 00:09:11.965
And we note that, it also seems to be more common

180
00:09:12.025 --> 00:09:16.085
during, moderate, nine flood years,

181
00:09:16.705 --> 00:09:18.765
as one might, have expected.

182
00:09:19.565 --> 00:09:22.165
I think this, I mean, it's been studied

183
00:09:22.345 --> 00:09:24.085
by scientists in many ways,

184
00:09:24.145 --> 00:09:26.285
and they've increasingly used this kind of data,

185
00:09:26.655 --> 00:09:28.685
paleo climatic archives,

186
00:09:28.915 --> 00:09:31.245
what economists can contribute to.

187
00:09:31.385 --> 00:09:33.685
We, I mean, we don't, we don't go

188
00:09:33.685 --> 00:09:35.765
and measure the chemical composition

189
00:09:35.765 --> 00:09:37.245
of the static mites clearly.

190
00:09:37.985 --> 00:09:39.885
Uh, so we, we just take that data,

191
00:09:40.505 --> 00:09:43.485
but then bring it into a more maybe advanced,

192
00:09:43.675 --> 00:09:47.805
statistical framework and, relate it to political theory

193
00:09:47.805 --> 00:09:51.885
and economic theory, which we're maybe more familiar with,

194
00:09:51.905 --> 00:09:53.165
some other disciplines.

195
00:09:53.165 --> 00:09:54.685
So I think this is what we can bring.

196
00:09:54.745 --> 00:09:57.525
And, and this has not been done so much actually,

197
00:09:57.825 --> 00:10:00.645
but there are many other analysis, for instance,

198
00:10:00.645 --> 00:10:03.285
on the Maya civilization and,

199
00:10:03.465 --> 00:10:05.205
and on the Mesopotamian civilization

200
00:10:05.295 --> 00:10:07.285
using somewhat similar methods.

201
00:10:07.385 --> 00:10:10.485
So I think this, our study

202
00:10:11.785 --> 00:10:14.725
is one in, in a growing field,

203
00:10:14.885 --> 00:10:17.525
I would say quickly growing right now,

204
00:10:18.275 --> 00:10:21.205
that helps us understand the rice and bowl

205
00:10:21.225 --> 00:10:24.085
and rice again, of civilizations,

206
00:10:24.085 --> 00:10:25.445
the early civilizations, which were

207
00:10:25.555 --> 00:10:27.285
very volatile, I must say.

208
00:10:27.485 --> 00:10:29.685
I mean, these, these are clearly very different times,

209
00:10:30.065 --> 00:10:34.605
but, I think, even today where we have,

210
00:10:34.865 --> 00:10:37.565
trends that are similar, we have,

211
00:10:37.865 --> 00:10:41.525
to some extent any increasing, heat in,

212
00:10:41.785 --> 00:10:43.485
in many African countries, for instance,

213
00:10:43.485 --> 00:10:45.565
which makes them difficult to live in.

214
00:10:45.945 --> 00:10:50.765
So, so in the Sahel Bells for instance, there's a tendency

215
00:10:50.825 --> 00:10:54.405
to, try the population there to migrate to Europe.

216
00:10:54.785 --> 00:10:58.005
So I think part of that migration flows are actually driven

217
00:10:58.185 --> 00:11:00.485
by, climate change.

218
00:11:00.905 --> 00:11:03.445
Uh, and they want to get to the core, which,

219
00:11:03.585 --> 00:11:06.525
is not the Nile shores, but Europe.

220
00:11:07.505 --> 00:11:09.325
So in that sense, there are, I think,

221
00:11:09.325 --> 00:11:13.285
pretty strong analogies from my account of ancient Egypt

222
00:11:13.305 --> 00:11:16.405
and climate change there to, what's going on now, the,

223
00:11:16.505 --> 00:11:20.245
the big pressure on, on Europe mainly,

224
00:11:20.305 --> 00:11:23.845
but also of course, United States from drier parts

225
00:11:23.845 --> 00:11:24.125
of the world.

Climate and Agriculture in Early Civilizations

00:00:00 - I've had a longstanding interest in particularly these early states, and also the link to, their productive methods, agriculture and how agriculture production actually impacted on the formation and development of early states. So that's the key. And then of course, within that context, there's a particular interesting variation in terms of climate change, which has just been, of course, a driving factor historically throughout all periods,

00:00:33 - when we think about how climate change affects societies. apart from that, I'm also particularly interested in, in Mesopotamia, in Egypt, which, I think are the prime examples of early what we, what we call typically call civilization emerging. it's the earliest cases of that. And there are many things that we can learn, from those two cases. In this case, it's just ancient Egypt, of course,

00:01:02 - But the context is certainly that these are first vast societies to emerge from, from, agriculture. Earlier agricultural societies, floods were absolutely essential because it's, it's Nile, of course, we're talking about the, the, the flow of water through the Nile, which, is, and the Nile is in turn fed by the blue and the white Nile. What we're mainly looking at here is the Blue Nile, which is the, then runs from the Ethiopian Highlands. So the, the water that flows, in the Nile

Dependence on Nile Floods: Climate's Role in Ancient Civilization

00:01:36 - and then runs up to September, are results of the monsoon rains that rain over the Ethiopian Highlands, and then, spread. So, so the main floods of the Nile are completely dependent on the rains that fall on the Ethiopian Highlands. And then these were, of course, the, the reason why there could be such an advanced civilization, such a high population density, because these floods provided a very stable flow of, resources,

00:02:10 - and barley along the shores of the Nile. And, in, and also these floods came in a very regular fashion. Sometimes they were too high, sometimes they were too low as, we'll come back to, I think. But, these were essential for the way of life along, along the Nile and in ancient Egypt. The basic thing that we want to say with our framework is really that, all early societies is also

00:02:39 - There's a natural, inclination for people to want to exit and get out when, when a ruler becomes too strong or tells you too much what you should do. so it's a very natural inclination, we believe, for people to want to leave. And we see that all the time in, Mong hand togethers, for instance, that they splinter when they get too annoyed with, with a leader and so on. But that's when, only when they can do it.

Environmental Circumscription and Population Control in Ancient Egypt

00:03:15 - kind of, attached to the land, and it's also extremely productive. And also the hitter land is completely unproductive. So it means that you're more or less closed in, in this very productive, agricultural heaven, you might say. but it also means that populations will grow and that you're stuck there to a great extent. so in that sense, you're circumscribed in your,

00:03:43 - And that means that if a ruler can control such a population, they simply have nowhere to go, and it's easier than to tax them, and they will accept taxes because the exit option is simply not there. in, in other places, if you try to form states and the, and the ruler tries to start taxing a population, they can simply take off, and the ruler knows this, and therefore he or she will not, actually have taxes

00:04:16 - So it le leads to another equilibrium. But in Egypt, it's the archetypical society, for what we call environmental circumscription, incredibly fertile Nile shores, but then a hinterland, often that was very dry and unproductive, and you could impede in certain periods. You could live in the hinterland and, and live there, without, not being taxed, not being under the control of the state.

Assessing Nile Floods and Climate Data

00:04:48 - So most people, still had no choice but to stay in the state and be taxed. I mean, we, everyone knows that the Nile floods were essential for, the agriculture way of life in Egypt. The really difficult thing is to have an accurate assessment of the Nile floods and also of the rains then in the hinterland. So, so there, there are TERs data,

00:05:20 - but they have pretty, I mean, the, the, the, the data there is not available for all years, and it's very just a few select years. So what we are looking for is a more, reliable, indicator of rainfall. One of the most, often used, kind of data these days on, climate, and rainfall historically, is what's called, it's basically

00:05:50 - or, in tapes in the form of sal mites and stalactites. and so if you, you look, if you drill through aal mite in different layers, you each layer has a different chemical composition, of oxygen 18, which is, what we are looking at. And that in turn is a proxy for how much rain fell during different periods. And we're using for Nile floods and for the proxying rainfall in Ethiopia, we're using

Climate Impact on Political Stability in Ancient Egypt

00:06:22 - of rainfall pattern over Ethiopia. And for understanding the hinterland rainfall, we are, we are looking at, we're using data from a cave in Israel, sore cave, which should be a good proxy for them rainfall in the, in the area surrounding the valve. So it's this interaction between these two climate variables that we're exploiting in the paper. What we're basically looking at is whether,

00:06:55 - that either, the too much floods is bad, or the too little floods is bad, either could be very disruptive. so what we're actually trying to capture is, an intermediate level, which as, which actually also turns out to be the one that's most beneficial when floods are fairly predictable in an intermediate range, the worst, pattern in terms of political instability,

00:07:25 - so the worst situation is, is actually drought periods. So, so the main indicator, is political instability in the, in the, in the shape of a Pharaoh or ruler changes. So the more changes there are during a period, that's our indicator of instability. And now we correlate that with these weather, proxies that we have. I mean, if, if there are extreme droughts, for instance,

Impact of Drought on Ancient Egyptian State Stability

00:07:58 - in, Egyptian art and so on. And so it seems that in periods of extreme droughts, then, the state, is, is in turmoil. We have ruler that are replaced, quickly. And, and it might even be the case that the state collapses more or less like they did in, two periods. The first thing intermediate period around 2,100 bc

00:08:32 - when more or less there was no centralized Egyptian states. So especially drought seems to be, very problematic and could be to state disintegration simply. Okay, but we're actually also looking at some other indicators like pyramid construction intensity. so we have a measure of, the size

00:09:00 - a huge project, which, with massive labor requirements and massive resource requirements. And we are correlating that with, these climate variations. And we note that, it also seems to be more common during, moderate, nine flood years, as one might, have expected. I think this, I mean, it's been studied by scientists in many ways, and they've increasingly used this kind of data, paleo climatic archives,

Climate Change, Civilizations, and Migration

00:09:31 - We, I mean, we don't, we don't go and measure the chemical composition of the static mites clearly. so we, we just take that data, but then bring it into a more maybe advanced, statistical framework and, relate it to political theory and economic theory, which we're maybe more familiar with, some other disciplines. So I think this is what we can bring. And, and this has not been done so much actually, but there are many other analysis, for instance,

00:10:03 - and on the Mesopotamian civilization using somewhat similar methods. So I think this, our study is one in, in a growing field, I would say quickly growing right now, that helps us understand the rice and bowl and rice again, of civilizations, the early civilizations, which were very volatile, I must say. I mean, these, these are clearly very different times, but, I think, even today where we have,

00:10:37 - to some extent any increasing, heat in, in many African countries, for instance, which makes them difficult to live in. So, so in the Sahel Bells for instance, there's a tendency to, try the population there to migrate to Europe. So I think part of that migration flows are actually driven by, climate change. and they want to get to the core, which, is not the Nile shores, but Europe.

Ancient Egypt and Modern Climate Pressures

00:11:23 - pretty strong analogies from my account of ancient Egypt and climate change there to, what's going on now, the, the big pressure on, on Europe mainly, but also of course, United States from drier parts of the world.

Faculti AI can make mistakes

Research

Policy

Analysis