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What Moves Public Support for Aid to Ukraine? Issue Attention, Partisanship, and Normative Appeals

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Since 2022, the U.S. has prioritized aid to Ukraine, but this policy is increasingly divisive. How strong is public support for this aid, and what factors shape it? Timothy Frye discusses results of a survey experiment varying partisan cues and appeals for aid.

Image courtesy of interviewee. November 1, 2024

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This video discusses the dynamics of public support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, noting that Ukraine has recently surpassed Israel as the largest recipient of foreign aid from the U.S. The author analyzes a study conducted with 2,800 respondents to understand how different informational cues influence opinions on this issue. The study found that framing aid to Ukraine in terms of morality and justice significantly increased support among Democrats, while presenting support from Republican figures, such as Donald Trump, decreased support among Republicans.

The research highlights that people's support is more influenced by normative and partisan cues than by economic or national security arguments. Notably, those closely following the issue showed little impact from these cues, suggesting stability in support for Ukraine exists despite polarized views.

This video also touches on bipartisanship, revealing that while both Democratic and Republican leaders support aid to Ukraine, the appeal does not significantly affect Republican support due to internal divisions within the party. Overall, the findings illustrate a complex landscape of public opinion, revealing a notable disparity in support levels between Democrats (85% support) and Republicans (52% support).

Lastly, the author observes that international events, such as the Gaza War, have sidelined attention on Ukraine, potentially affecting support levels, and highlights ongoing research into public opinion regarding the war in Ukraine from Russian respondents, noting a general support for the war but low enthusiasm among the populace.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Increase in Foreign Aid to Ukraine**: Ukraine has become the largest recipient of foreign aid from the U.S., surpassing Israel, which has historically been the largest recipient. This shift in foreign aid dynamics is significant for understanding U.S. foreign policy.

2. **Public Perception Influenced by Framing**: The study explored how different framing of aid to Ukraine (morality, economic, and national security issues) affected public support, revealing that norms emphasizing morality and justice increased support among Democrats, while partisan cues notably decreased support among Republicans.

3. **Partisanship and Bipartisan Appeals**: The research indicated that while bipartisan support was effective in boosting Democrat support for aid, it did not impact Republicans significantly due to divisions within the Republican Party regarding aid to Ukraine.

4. **Foreign Aid Popularity and Misconceptions**: Despite foreign aid being generally unpopular among Americans, support for aid to Ukraine remained relatively high across Democrats and Republicans, likely due to misconceptions about the scale of foreign aid and its perceived importance.

5. **Impact of Current Events**: The ongoing Gaza War has shifted public attention away from the issue of aid to Ukraine, potentially harming support for Ukraine as the media coverage of other conflicts diverts attention and reduces the focus on Ukraine-related issues.

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Here are some key quotes and themes from the video you regarding U.S. foreign aid to Ukraine, public opinion, and the influence of partisan cues:

1. **Importance of Foreign Aid to Ukraine**:
- "This is a really important issue for the US. Ukraine has become the largest recipient of foreign aid."

2. **Public Perception and Framing**:
- "It does really allow us to study how the public views foreign policy issues, because you can frame aid to Ukraine as a moral issue, as an economic issue, as a national security issue."

3. **Impact of Informational Cues**:
- "The cues were rooted in normative concerns about morality and justice... telling respondents whether or not a Democrat like Joe Biden supported the policy or a Republican like Donald Trump supported the policy results are... interesting."

4. **Partisan Differences in Support**:
- "Among Democrats not following the issue very closely, giving them a normative frame that emphasizes morality and justice increased support for aid to Ukraine."
- "Among Republicans not following the issue very closely, telling them that Donald Trump supported aid to Ukraine reduced their support by about 20 percentage points."

5. **Responses to National Security Concerns**:
- "Aid that goes to Ukraine is aid that's not spent on national defense in the United States or solving healthcare problems, didn't seem to have much of an effect."

6. **Relativity of Political Cues**:
- "It is interesting to me that aid... didn't seem to have much impact... it seems that respondents... were more influenced by partisan concerns than by economic or national security concerns."

7. **Bipartisan Appeals**:
- "There's a long history of arguments that bipartisan appeals are more likely... Ukraine is one issue where one can kind of get at this issue."

8. **Polarization and Support for Aid**:
- "Support for economic and military aid to Ukraine is actually pretty high... the floor on other issues is much lower than on this issue."

9. **Public Misconceptions about Foreign Aid**:
- "Foreign aid is generally a very unpopular policy in the United States... Americans vastly overestimate the size of the foreign aid budget."

10. **Impact of Current Events**:
- "The Gaza War has been a real gift to President Vladimir Putin, because it has really pushed Russia's actions in the United States and in Europe to the back pages."

11. **Look into Russian Support for War**:
- "Majorities support the war in Ukraine, but levels of enthusiasm are very low."

These quotes reflect various dimensions of the discussion surrounding U.S. foreign aid to Ukraine, touching on public opinion, partisanship, and the broader geopolitical landscape.

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This is a really important issue for, the us.

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Uh, Ukraine has become the largest recipient of foreign aid.

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Uh, Israel had long, long been the largest recipient,

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but in recent years, Ukraine, has taken that mental,

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so it's a very, important issue, publicly.

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I was also interested in it

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because it does really allow us to study

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how the public views foreign policy issues,

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because you can frame aid to Ukraine as a moral issue,

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as an economic issue, as a national security issue.

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And one of the things I was interested in is

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how these different informational cues that we give

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to respondents might move their support for A

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to Ukraine surveyed 2,800 respondents in the United States,

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and a control group didn't receive any informational cues,

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and we're gonna compare responses to groups

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who got these informational cues to the control group.

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And the, the cues were rooted in normative concerns about

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morality and justice.

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There was another, cue that was rooted in economics,

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another cue that was rooted in national security concerns.

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And then several concern,

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cues rooted in partisan concerns.

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So telling respondents whether

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or not a Democrat like Joe Biden supported, the policy

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or a Republican like Donald Trump supported the policy

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results are, are, are pretty interesting.

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I think that

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among Democrats not following the issue very closely,

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giving them a normative frame that emphasizes morality

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and justice, increased support for aid to Ukraine

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by about 10 percentage points.

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And that's pretty impressive

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because aid for Ukraine

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among Democrats was already very high.

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So there wasn't a lot of room to boost it even further,

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among Republicans not following the issue very closely,

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telling them that Donald Trump supported aid

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to Ukraine reduced their support

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by about 20 percentage points.

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So that was a very big jump,

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and that was the most powerful cue.

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Um, in the survey, it is interesting to me

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that an economic cue that reminded respondents

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that aid that goes to Ukraine is aid that's not spent on

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national defense in the United States

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or solving healthcare problems, didn't seem

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to have much of an effect.

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Uh, similarly telling them that critics of aid to Ukraine

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argue that it could risk escalation

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and potentially involve NATO allies,

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that this also didn't seem to have much impact.

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So it seems that respondents in my study,

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were more driven by normative

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and partisan concerns than by economic

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or national security concerns.

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One interesting thing is that these results only occurred

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among respondents who were not following the issue closely.

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Uh, so for those who are following the issue closely,

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None of these prompts, had any impact.

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So I think this is one of the reasons why support

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for economic age to Ukraine has been so, been

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so stable over time.

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The normative appeal mentioned

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that Ukraine was a young democracy unjustly attacked

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by Russia, and that was experiencing war crimes, a according

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to a, a UN report.

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Now, I can't tell you which of those individual elements,

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moved public opinion,

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but taken together, they did seem to have a big impact

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among Democrats.

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I also was interested in bipartisanship, right?

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There's a long history of arguments

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that bipartisan appeals are more likely

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to boost support for policies.

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Now in polarized contemporary United States, it's difficult

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to find issues where democratic

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and Republican elites are on the same side of the issue.

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And if you want these cues to be credible, they need

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to be rooted in, you know, facts on the ground.

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So, Ukraine is one issue where one can kind

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of get at this issue.

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So what I did is I reminded respondents

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that both Democratic President Joe Biden

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and Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell,

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supported aid to Ukraine,

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and wanted to see whether this bipartisan

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appealed heady impact.

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It boosted support among Democrats,

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but had no effect on Republicans.

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But that might be because Republicans saw this queue is not

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credible, given

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that the issue really divides the Republican party.

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The more pro-Trump wing is strongly opposed

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to economic aid to Ukraine.

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Uh, and the more traditional,

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Republicans are more supportive.

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So they just might not have believed the queue.

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There was no evidence of a backlash effect.

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So I expected that if I told Democrats that,

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president Trump supported

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or opposed aid to Ukraine,

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that they would increase their levels of support

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and vice versa for Republicans telling them

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that Joe Biden supported it would reduce their support.

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But I didn't find, any evidence of that.

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So that's, some evidence

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that polarization on this issue might be

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less than on other issues.

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And there's also additional evidence for that.

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For example, 85% of Democrats support economic

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and military aid to Ukraine.

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And 52% of Republicans in my, survey supported economic

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and military aid to Ukraine.

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So that's a big gap, right?

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So that's evidence of polarization.

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At the same time that polarization is happening,

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because democratic support is so high, not

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because Republican opposition is so great, you know,

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and other issues in immigration

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or abortion, you know,

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party's opposition is much, much lower.

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You know, Democrats for example, believe only 18%

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of Democrats believe

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that immigration should be decreased, right?

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So the floor on other issues is much

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lower than on this issue.

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Support for economic

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and military aid to Ukraine is actually pretty high.

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Uh, now you need to remember that,

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foreign aid is generally a very unpopular policy in the

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United States, like it is in many countries,

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and that Americans vastly overestimate the size

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of the foreign aid budget.

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Uh, it's about 1% of the federal budget,

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but if you ask Americans how much aid is given,

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to foreign countries, they suggest it's around 25%, in part

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because they conflate military spending, a abroad so

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that, you know, majorities of independents,

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the vast majority of Democrats

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and a large share of Republicans support this policy,

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suggest that, you know, at a minimum,

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politicians will not be punished at the, at the ballot box,

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for supporting aid to Ukraine.

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And since those respondents

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who are following the issue most closely

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and probably are more likely to vote on this issue,

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it might be the case that politicians

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who support this issue might find

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that it's a winning issue at the ballot box.

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The data come from September, 2023,

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although the stability of aid

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to Ukraine in the United States has been remarkable.

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You know, now other studies have shown similar kinds

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of patterns over a long period of time.

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But what the Gaza War has done is really pushed this issue

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to the back pages.

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Uh, and since, respondents

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who are not following in the issue closely are less likely

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to support it, I think it's had a negative effect on support

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for aid to Ukraine.

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I think the, the Gaza War has been a real gift

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to President Vladimir Putin,

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because it has really pushed, Russia's actions,

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away from center stage,

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in the United States and in Europe.

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I'm, doing research on support for public opinion,

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support for the war, in Ukraine, in Russia.

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So I'm doing, surveys of Russian respondents,

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to figure out their degree of support

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for the war in Ukraine.

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Uh, and the results are pretty interesting.

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There is, majorities support the war in Ukraine,

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but levels of enthusiasm are very low, for exa

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and even among respondents who support President Putin,

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it's only slight majorities that support continuing the war.

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So, one of my Russian friends said,

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that the average Russians,

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position on the war is it's an existential war that we have

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to win at all costs,

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but just don't ask me to do anything about it,

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which I think kind of captures their ambivalence quite well.

Public Perception of Aid to Ukraine

00:00:00 - This is a really important issue for, the us. Ukraine has become the largest recipient of foreign aid. Israel had long, long been the largest recipient, but in recent years, Ukraine, has taken that mental, so it's a very, important issue, publicly. I was also interested in it because it does really allow us to study how the public views foreign policy issues, because you can frame aid to Ukraine as a moral issue, as an economic issue, as a national security issue.

00:00:35 - how these different informational cues that we give to respondents might move their support for A to Ukraine surveyed 2,800 respondents in the United States, and a control group didn't receive any informational cues, and we're gonna compare responses to groups who got these informational cues to the control group. And the, the cues were rooted in normative concerns about morality and justice. There was another, cue that was rooted in economics,

00:01:09 - And then several concern, cues rooted in partisan concerns. So telling respondents whether or not a Democrat like Joe Biden supported, the policy or a Republican like Donald Trump supported the policy results are, are, are pretty interesting. I think that among Democrats not following the issue very closely, giving them a normative frame that emphasizes morality and justice, increased support for aid to Ukraine

Impact of Partisan Cues on Support for Ukraine Aid

00:01:40 - And that's pretty impressive because aid for Ukraine among Democrats was already very high. So there wasn't a lot of room to boost it even further, among Republicans not following the issue very closely, telling them that Donald Trump supported aid to Ukraine reduced their support by about 20 percentage points. So that was a very big jump, and that was the most powerful cue. in the survey, it is interesting to me

00:02:13 - that aid that goes to Ukraine is aid that's not spent on national defense in the United States or solving healthcare problems, didn't seem to have much of an effect. similarly telling them that critics of aid to Ukraine argue that it could risk escalation and potentially involve NATO allies, that this also didn't seem to have much impact. So it seems that respondents in my study,

00:02:44 - and partisan concerns than by economic or national security concerns. One interesting thing is that these results only occurred among respondents who were not following the issue closely. so for those who are following the issue closely, None of these prompts, had any impact. So I think this is one of the reasons why support for economic age to Ukraine has been so, been so stable over time. The normative appeal mentioned

Impact of Bipartisan Support on Public Opinion regarding Ukraine Aid

00:03:16 - by Russia, and that was experiencing war crimes, a according to a, a UN report. Now, I can't tell you which of those individual elements, moved public opinion, but taken together, they did seem to have a big impact among Democrats. I also was interested in bipartisanship, right? There's a long history of arguments that bipartisan appeals are more likely

00:03:44 - Now in polarized contemporary United States, it's difficult to find issues where democratic and Republican elites are on the same side of the issue. And if you want these cues to be credible, they need to be rooted in, you know, facts on the ground. So, Ukraine is one issue where one can kind of get at this issue. So what I did is I reminded respondents that both Democratic President Joe Biden

00:04:17 - supported aid to Ukraine, and wanted to see whether this bipartisan appealed heady impact. It boosted support among Democrats, but had no effect on Republicans. But that might be because Republicans saw this queue is not credible, given that the issue really divides the Republican party. The more pro-Trump wing is strongly opposed to economic aid to Ukraine. and the more traditional, Republicans are more supportive.

Polarization and Support for Aid to Ukraine

00:04:46 - There was no evidence of a backlash effect. So I expected that if I told Democrats that, president Trump supported or opposed aid to Ukraine, that they would increase their levels of support and vice versa for Republicans telling them that Joe Biden supported it would reduce their support. But I didn't find, any evidence of that. So that's, some evidence that polarization on this issue might be less than on other issues. And there's also additional evidence for that.

00:05:20 - and military aid to Ukraine. And 52% of Republicans in my, survey supported economic and military aid to Ukraine. So that's a big gap, right? So that's evidence of polarization. At the same time that polarization is happening, because democratic support is so high, not because Republican opposition is so great, you know, and other issues in immigration or abortion, you know, party's opposition is much, much lower.

00:05:53 - of Democrats believe that immigration should be decreased, right? So the floor on other issues is much lower than on this issue. Support for economic and military aid to Ukraine is actually pretty high. now you need to remember that, foreign aid is generally a very unpopular policy in the United States, like it is in many countries, and that Americans vastly overestimate the size of the foreign aid budget.

Perceptions of Foreign Aid and Political Implications

00:06:22 - but if you ask Americans how much aid is given, to foreign countries, they suggest it's around 25%, in part because they conflate military spending, a abroad so that, you know, majorities of independents, the vast majority of Democrats and a large share of Republicans support this policy, suggest that, you know, at a minimum, politicians will not be punished at the, at the ballot box,

00:06:55 - And since those respondents who are following the issue most closely and probably are more likely to vote on this issue, it might be the case that politicians who support this issue might find that it's a winning issue at the ballot box. The data come from September, 2023, although the stability of aid to Ukraine in the United States has been remarkable. You know, now other studies have shown similar kinds

00:07:26 - But what the Gaza War has done is really pushed this issue to the back pages. and since, respondents who are not following in the issue closely are less likely to support it, I think it's had a negative effect on support for aid to Ukraine. I think the, the Gaza War has been a real gift to President Vladimir Putin, because it has really pushed, Russia's actions,

Ambivalence in Russian Support for the Ukraine War

00:07:59 - in the United States and in Europe. I'm, doing research on support for public opinion, support for the war, in Ukraine, in Russia. So I'm doing, surveys of Russian respondents, to figure out their degree of support for the war in Ukraine. and the results are pretty interesting. There is, majorities support the war in Ukraine, but levels of enthusiasm are very low, for exa

00:08:52 - it's only slight majorities that support continuing the war. So, one of my Russian friends said, that the average Russians, position on the war is it's an existential war that we have to win at all costs, but just don't ask me to do anything about it, which I think kind of captures their ambivalence quite well.

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