Popular in Political Science

Political Science

V-Dem’s Conceptions of Democracy and Their Consequences

University of Notre Dame Michael Coppedge

American Politics

Keeping the Republic

Boston College Marc Landy

British Politics

Entrepreneurial thinking: the politics and practice of policy impact

University of Sheffield Matthew Flinders

Canadian Politics

Parties and Elections: An End to Canadian Exceptionalism?

St. Francis Xavier University James Bickerton

Asian Politics

The Politics of Knowledge in Development

University of Delhi Madhulika Banerjee

American Politics

Fifty years of declining confidence and increasing polarization in trust

University of California Berkeley Henry Brady

American Politics

Authoritarian Propaganda Campaigns on Foreign Affairs

View more insights in Social Sciences - Political Science - Asian Politics

View more figures from Lancaster University

View the page of Andrew Chubb

View the page of Frances Yaping Wang

Read the Study

Next in Asian Politics

Exploring Impacts and Implications of US-China Relations on US Public Opinion toward Chinese and Asian Americans

Pei-Te Lien | University of California Santa Barbara

When Women Ruled the Pacific: Power and Politics in Nineteenth-Century Tahiti and Hawai‘i

Joy Schulz | University of Colorado-Colorado Springs

Why do authoritarian states sometimes play up dangerous international crises and embarrassing diplomatic incidents in domestic propaganda? Andrew Chubb and Frances Wang suggest it may be due to the competing explanations of mobilization, signaling, diversion, and pacification.

Image courtesy of interviewee. May 28, 2024

Log-in or Sign-up to Faculti
Currently viewing this subject insight as a guest. You have insight(s) remaining for this month. Login to view 8000+ figures on the platform.

Generating Workspace...

Export as PDF

This video video discusses a debate in comparative politics regarding the purposes of authoritarian regimes' propaganda strategies. Traditionally, such propaganda was viewed as primarily aimed at persuasion. However, there is a contrasting view suggesting that its main purpose is to intimidate the public and demonstrate state power, discouraging challenges to authority.

The authors assert that authoritarian regimes, exemplified by China, often have broader ambitions for their propaganda. They utilize it not just to maintain power, but to mobilize allies, communicate with international audiences, and assert moral superiority in global disputes. A case study highlighted is the South China Sea arbitration between the Philippines and China, where the Philippine government aimed to challenge China's maritime claims through international legal frameworks. Despite declaring that it would not recognize the arbitration, China's extensive propaganda campaign perplexingly increased as the arbitration progressed, leading to numerous articles in state-run media.

The authors propose that multiple motivations can coexist during propaganda campaigns, including domestic mobilization, signaling to international audiences, and diversion from internal issues. They observed that Chinese propaganda aimed to reinforce nationalist sentiment and distract from domestic economic challenges during a period of economic instability in China. The study emphasizes the complexity of authoritarian propaganda and suggests future research could explore the life cycles and motivations behind such campaigns, not just within China but also in other regimes and contexts.

Language:

Export as PDF

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP:LOCAL=00:00:00.000,MPEGTS=900000

00:00.055 --> 00:02.645
First of all, we were looking at a debate in comparative

00:02.725 --> 00:04.845
politics about the purposes

00:04.845 --> 00:07.685
of authoritarian regimes, propaganda.

00:07.865 --> 00:08.885
In a general sense,

00:09.445 --> 00:12.365
a very interesting debate has been going on for a few years,

00:12.665 --> 00:14.725
about the extent to which, you know,

00:14.725 --> 00:16.565
intuitively it would be about persuasion.

00:16.945 --> 00:20.005
Uh, but then another side of that debate really argues

00:20.005 --> 00:22.565
that it's more about intimidating the public

00:22.865 --> 00:26.125
by deluging them with sort of outrageous propaganda

00:26.145 --> 00:30.765
and ultimately de demonstrating the state's power to sort

00:30.765 --> 00:33.005
of shove propaganda down their throats

00:33.265 --> 00:35.405
and thereby transmit a message

00:35.405 --> 00:37.405
that you shouldn't challenge our power.

00:38.085 --> 00:39.245
'cause the state is really very powerful.

00:39.245 --> 00:40.845
So it's ultimately not about persuasion.

00:41.385 --> 00:44.205
Um, and we thought that debate is, is very interesting.

00:44.265 --> 00:47.485
But, but our view is that, you know, based on the case

00:47.485 --> 00:50.005
of China, authoritarian regimes are probably

00:50.005 --> 00:51.045
more ambitious than that.

00:51.075 --> 00:54.525
It's not just about sort of staying in power,

00:54.665 --> 00:56.885
and that authoritarian regimes can use propaganda

00:56.905 --> 01:00.405
for other purposes, mobilizing their allies, communicating

01:00.405 --> 01:03.125
to international audiences, maybe trying

01:03.125 --> 01:05.805
to take the moral high ground in an international dispute.

01:06.505 --> 01:08.085
Um, so that was one debate.

01:08.085 --> 01:09.125
And the other was really

01:09.125 --> 01:11.645
between international relations scholars like us

01:11.785 --> 01:14.485
who look specifically at the propaganda behavior on

01:14.485 --> 01:15.685
foreign policy issues.

01:16.225 --> 01:18.685
Is it proactively sort of state led

01:18.685 --> 01:21.845
for the state's purposes, like signaling or diversion,

01:22.305 --> 01:24.685
or is it kind of more reactive to public opinion

01:24.705 --> 01:26.045
and basically oriented towards

01:26.455 --> 01:28.325
containing nationalist sentiment?

01:28.425 --> 01:32.125
The case that we looked at was the Philippines versus China

01:32.755 --> 01:34.685
arbitration in the South China Sea,

01:34.685 --> 01:37.885
which China launched a massive propaganda campaign about,

01:38.345 --> 01:40.125
the background was, I,

01:40.205 --> 01:42.125
I think your listeners will probably be quite familiar

01:42.195 --> 01:44.445
with the South China Sea issue in general.

01:44.985 --> 01:47.005
Uh, but in 2013,

01:47.065 --> 01:51.005
the Philippines launched this arbitration case under the,

01:51.225 --> 01:54.165
UN convention on the Law of the Sea,

01:54.255 --> 01:59.165
after China seized control of Scarborough Shoal, one

01:59.165 --> 02:01.885
of these, mid-ocean features that,

02:01.885 --> 02:03.725
the Philippines previously considered itself

02:03.785 --> 02:05.085
to, control.

02:05.265 --> 02:06.965
So the Philippines purpose was really to try

02:06.965 --> 02:09.565
to delegitimize the nine dash line claim

02:09.675 --> 02:14.325
that China had been sort of using, ambiguously to,

02:14.475 --> 02:15.605
demarcate the area

02:15.955 --> 02:19.565
that it was claiming sovereign maritime rights over,

02:19.625 --> 02:23.325
to basically get a ruling from international legal jurists

02:23.395 --> 02:27.605
that this was contrary to the 1982 UN convention on the Law

02:27.605 --> 02:29.245
of the Sea, which China was a signatory to.

02:29.505 --> 02:30.685
And so it was the Philippines.

02:31.305 --> 02:35.485
Um, now China, actually didn't think this was really a,

02:35.645 --> 02:37.285
a plausible strategy for the Philippines.

02:37.585 --> 02:39.645
Um, they thought that basically this type

02:39.645 --> 02:43.165
of litigation had been ruled out by its own,

02:43.515 --> 02:46.925
declaration in 2006 that it, it didn't accept any of the,

02:47.185 --> 02:49.325
dispute resolution,

02:49.555 --> 02:51.885
annexes in the UN convention on the Law of the Sea.

02:52.465 --> 02:55.045
The Philippines found, legal arguments to be able

02:55.045 --> 02:57.005
to bring it within the scope of the law of the sea.

02:57.005 --> 03:00.645
So China was shocked, and it really took a long time to,

03:00.785 --> 03:02.445
to respond two or three months really

03:02.505 --> 03:04.445
before it, figured out

03:04.445 --> 03:05.765
what its response was gonna be,

03:05.985 --> 03:09.645
and that that response was basically not to participate,

03:09.905 --> 03:11.925
to, to say that we're not recognizing it

03:11.925 --> 03:13.845
and we're not gonna implement it now.

03:14.145 --> 03:18.725
Uh, it would've made sense at that point to really just say

03:18.725 --> 03:21.045
as little about it as possible if you're really gonna ignore

03:21.045 --> 03:25.365
it, then launching a campaign of propaganda about it,

03:25.505 --> 03:28.525
is, is a strange way to go about ignoring a, a,

03:28.685 --> 03:30.845
a judicial proceeding that you don't recognize.

03:31.425 --> 03:33.445
Um, and it was increasingly clear

03:33.905 --> 03:37.885
as the case went on over three years, between 2013

03:38.345 --> 03:40.365
and 2016, it was increasingly clear

03:40.365 --> 03:42.125
that the result wasn't gonna be pretty for China.

03:42.785 --> 03:45.685
Um, so we found it puzzling from a political, you know,

03:45.685 --> 03:47.325
political scientists always love a puzzle.

03:47.705 --> 03:49.725
So we found it puzzling that,

03:49.755 --> 03:52.325
that China would launch a propaganda campaign on this case

03:52.325 --> 03:53.485
that it was sort of certain to lose

03:53.485 --> 03:55.205
and that it said it was gonna ignore.

03:55.865 --> 03:57.725
Um, and as we got closer

03:57.785 --> 04:00.725
and closer to the, the final arbitration decision,

04:01.065 --> 04:03.885
and China really ramped up the propaganda, to,

04:04.065 --> 04:06.245
to really 11 on the dial,

04:06.985 --> 04:11.125
at one point 206 articles in the flagship propaganda

04:11.135 --> 04:14.325
mouthpiece, the People's Daily in the space of two months,

04:14.705 --> 04:15.805
that's like three a day.

04:16.025 --> 04:17.125
Uh, so, you know,

04:17.125 --> 04:19.605
China wasn't doing a very good job from a propaganda point

04:19.605 --> 04:21.765
of view of ignoring the proceedings.

04:22.025 --> 04:23.565
So that was the puzzle that, that sort

04:23.565 --> 04:24.845
of set us up for this study.

04:24.955 --> 04:28.205
Francis has laid out four broad explanations,

04:28.275 --> 04:31.365
that are out there in the international relations literature

04:31.585 --> 04:33.125
to explain, you know,

04:33.255 --> 04:35.685
large scale propaganda campaigns like this.

04:36.065 --> 04:38.725
And the point that we were making theoretically was actually

04:38.835 --> 04:40.045
it's a bit of a mere culpa

04:40.205 --> 04:41.925
'cause in our own work we've kind of set these up

04:41.925 --> 04:44.205
as competing alternative explanations in the past.

04:44.585 --> 04:45.645
But when you look at it closely,

04:45.705 --> 04:48.725
and particularly through the lens of this case, it turns out

04:48.725 --> 04:52.885
that, you know, multiple explanations along these lines can

04:52.885 --> 04:54.525
all be present at the same time.

04:54.825 --> 04:56.965
At least that's what this case seemed to be telling us.

04:57.425 --> 05:01.485
So on the mobilization side, we saw lots of rhetoric

05:01.505 --> 05:03.525
of moral denunciation, sort

05:03.525 --> 05:06.645
of conspiracy theorizing from the PRC propaganda organs,

05:06.645 --> 05:09.965
like blaming the, the, the, the judge,

05:10.385 --> 05:13.125
the judge's background, Japanese heritage.

05:13.465 --> 05:15.605
Uh, it was an American plot,

05:15.875 --> 05:18.405
basically a making it a huge international

05:18.935 --> 05:21.805
anti-China scandal, so as to try to ensure

05:21.805 --> 05:25.405
that the Chinese people didn't believe in the proceedings.

05:25.785 --> 05:29.205
Um, so that's, that's, a kind of motivation,

05:29.405 --> 05:31.485
a mobilizational type of motivation.

05:31.685 --> 05:33.245
'cause it's about trying to,

05:33.355 --> 05:37.725
keep the public's belief in the, in the state's claim,

05:37.725 --> 05:39.325
higher than it, they fear that it

05:39.325 --> 05:41.205
otherwise would've been if they'd have been, you know,

05:41.205 --> 05:45.925
allowed to, to have sort of, un unfiltered, kind

05:46.005 --> 05:47.805
of information about the case.

05:48.385 --> 05:50.405
Um, but it was also very emotive

05:50.505 --> 05:54.005
and sort of mobilizing rhetoric that China used,

05:54.535 --> 05:56.965
mobilizing those regime allies,

05:57.175 --> 06:00.225
both internally like this kind of keyboard warriors

06:00.225 --> 06:04.025
to shout down anybody who, might have, might have been,

06:04.025 --> 06:06.305
inclined to say in an internet setting

06:06.445 --> 06:09.065
or on social media that maybe the Philippines has a point

06:09.085 --> 06:12.185
or that the nine dash line maybe wasn't, wasn't

06:12.205 --> 06:15.185
so compatible with the UN convention on the Law of the Sea.

06:15.685 --> 06:19.705
Um, and also to, to kind of project an image

06:19.845 --> 06:21.585
to international audiences.

06:21.645 --> 06:23.665
And that's where the second type of explanation,

06:23.725 --> 06:25.825
the signaling explanation comes in,

06:25.825 --> 06:27.865
because it was basically about mobilizing.

06:27.965 --> 06:30.865
It was very clearly about mobilizing those,

06:31.255 --> 06:34.665
regimes supporters to speak out in defense

06:34.725 --> 06:37.425
of the Chinese government's position,

06:37.565 --> 06:39.025
to international audiences.

06:39.025 --> 06:41.705
This was really clear from one of the social media campaigns

06:41.705 --> 06:44.185
that the state media kind of got behind,

06:44.555 --> 06:47.225
which was literally about sort of denouncing,

06:47.545 --> 06:49.825
denouncing the arbitration in two languages.

06:49.845 --> 06:53.585
The main slogan was Nhe Jte, who cares?

06:54.175 --> 06:56.665
That means the South China Sea arbitration, who cares?

06:56.965 --> 06:58.225
Uh, you know, the use

06:58.225 --> 07:01.585
of those two languages in the one slogan kind of depicts

07:01.605 --> 07:04.785
how the multiple audiences were in play there.

07:05.365 --> 07:07.745
Uh, and we saw other pretty compelling evidence

07:07.745 --> 07:09.825
that not only domestic audiences,

07:09.825 --> 07:12.625
but also international audiences were part

07:12.625 --> 07:16.705
of the CCP propaganda organs thinking, thinking here

07:16.705 --> 07:20.185
of the number of articles that were translated into English,

07:20.455 --> 07:22.625
even though they didn't, they weren't that really, you know,

07:22.625 --> 07:23.865
compelling when once you,

07:23.865 --> 07:26.065
once you translate PRC propaganda into English,

07:26.085 --> 07:28.145
it becomes much less sort of persuasive.

07:28.365 --> 07:30.145
But nonetheless, they wanted that voice

07:30.325 --> 07:31.425
out there very clearly.

07:31.645 --> 07:33.145
Uh, otherwise they wouldn't have translated

07:33.145 --> 07:34.185
so many of the articles.

07:34.645 --> 07:37.865
Um, another one was, in terms of what,

07:37.865 --> 07:40.305
what they wanted international audiences thinking about it.

07:40.765 --> 07:45.025
Um, the PRC officials throughout the campaign were

07:45.025 --> 07:48.865
consistently referring to the strength of the feelings

07:48.865 --> 07:49.905
of the Chinese people.

07:50.295 --> 07:52.425
Basically referring to that, that logic

07:52.425 --> 07:53.545
that Francis mentioned

07:53.545 --> 07:57.585
before of hands tying of, saying

07:57.645 --> 08:00.185
to the international interlocutors, look,

08:00.195 --> 08:02.905
we've got domestic constraints here to,

08:03.005 --> 08:04.985
to take into account,

08:05.085 --> 08:08.625
and maybe even, you know, don't push things too far

08:08.775 --> 08:13.225
because the situation could get even more, dangerous if,

08:13.245 --> 08:15.065
for example, the United States tried

08:15.065 --> 08:18.185
to back the Philippines in actually implementing the, the,

08:18.185 --> 08:21.705
the findings of this, arbitration, ruling.

08:22.455 --> 08:24.865
There's a couple of other explanations from the domestic

08:25.065 --> 08:27.705
angle, which I'll kick over to Francis for.

08:28.305 --> 08:31.345
I can jump in to talk about how,

08:31.405 --> 08:32.825
the rationale diversion

08:32.845 --> 08:35.505
and ification has played out in this case.

08:36.245 --> 08:38.745
So about diversion, there were a number

08:38.765 --> 08:41.745
of economic problems such as the stock market turbulence

08:41.745 --> 08:43.305
that started in the summer

08:43.305 --> 08:48.185
of 2015 persisted throughout 2016, economic growth slowed

08:48.185 --> 08:50.505
to a 25 year, low.

08:51.205 --> 08:53.585
And at the time there were a significant number

08:53.585 --> 08:56.405
of laying off of workers that led to a surge

08:56.405 --> 08:57.565
of workers protests.

08:57.565 --> 09:00.485
In 2015 and 2016, we show a graph in our paper,

09:01.145 --> 09:04.965
and around the same time, very rarely we observed a couple

09:04.985 --> 09:07.525
of direct challenges were criticisms

09:07.985 --> 09:09.445
to Xi Jinping's policies

09:09.445 --> 09:12.725
and even demanding for his recognition,

09:12.985 --> 09:16.165
and the state media sensor coverage on all of these

09:16.805 --> 09:20.045
domestic problems, especially the stock market nose dive in

09:20.045 --> 09:21.125
the summer of 2015.

09:22.125 --> 09:25.445
Although there's no direct confirmatory evidence

09:25.545 --> 09:26.725
for a diversionary logic,

09:27.185 --> 09:29.445
but at least these evidence that I've just talked about

09:30.175 --> 09:31.965
makes a diversionary motive

09:32.185 --> 09:34.085
for the campaign highly plausible.

09:34.585 --> 09:38.565
And about ification nationalist sentiment had risen

09:38.565 --> 09:40.925
to a level on the verge of losing control.

09:41.465 --> 09:43.245
The state propaganda, on the one hand,

09:43.425 --> 09:45.125
echoed the strong public sentiment

09:45.395 --> 09:48.685
with a very abrasive rhetoric to shorten the psychological

09:49.245 --> 09:51.085
distance between the public and the state.

09:51.625 --> 09:53.765
And the state also uses the harsh rhetoric

09:54.225 --> 09:58.445
as a posturing device to deflect nationalistic criticism to,

09:58.705 --> 10:02.605
to say to the public, look at us, we are posturing for,

10:02.935 --> 10:06.965
sorry, we are taking up a, a, a highly,

10:07.255 --> 10:10.685
harsh heart line, foreign policy position.

10:11.185 --> 10:13.765
And at the same time, the propaganda also worked hard

10:14.145 --> 10:15.285
to instill reason

10:15.745 --> 10:17.285
and rational calculations

10:17.385 --> 10:19.005
to support a moderate foreign policy.

10:19.095 --> 10:20.645
Ironically, at the same time,

10:21.025 --> 10:24.445
and this is exemplified in the state media's calling for

10:25.365 --> 10:27.085
rational patriotism, saying

10:27.085 --> 10:29.525
that true patriotism should be good

10:29.625 --> 10:32.965
and useful for the country, and encouraging tolerance

10:33.465 --> 10:38.005
and calm in contrast to blind imposes extreme behaviors

10:38.435 --> 10:39.925
that endanger social

10:39.945 --> 10:41.885
and political stability, which translate in the Chinese

10:41.885 --> 10:44.165
context, of course, the survival of the CCP.

10:45.105 --> 10:48.925
And so to summarize that, we are seeing a convergence

10:48.985 --> 10:53.125
of all four explanations in this one single case.

10:53.715 --> 10:56.285
It's obviously very important to develop

10:56.385 --> 10:58.325
and improve an evidence-based

10:58.385 --> 11:00.085
and social scientific approach

11:00.465 --> 11:02.525
to analyze China's propaganda outputs.

11:02.695 --> 11:05.525
Given the strict importance of China's rise

11:05.945 --> 11:07.325
and US-China rivalry,

11:07.665 --> 11:11.485
and the increasing prevalence of authoritarian regimes

11:11.485 --> 11:14.565
and elevated popularism and nationalism across the world.

11:15.345 --> 11:17.485
One implication of our study is

11:17.485 --> 11:20.685
that authoritarian propaganda campaigns may have life cycles

11:21.505 --> 11:22.565
for future research.

11:22.665 --> 11:25.925
It could be useful to explore the possible sequencing

11:25.985 --> 11:27.725
of these motivations during the cycle

11:27.825 --> 11:29.845
of a foreign policy propaganda campaign.

11:30.265 --> 11:33.005
So one does, one motivation happens

11:33.815 --> 11:35.445
maybe at an earlier stage,

11:35.825 --> 11:38.925
and another motivation might happen at a later stage.

11:39.385 --> 11:41.205
And if some of these happens simultaneously,

11:41.545 --> 11:44.965
it would be helpful to study in detail how they reinforce

11:45.585 --> 11:47.005
or counteract each other.

11:47.825 --> 11:51.725
And although our analysis is limited to authoritarian,

11:52.075 --> 11:56.165
regimes with strong, highly sophisticated institutionalized,

11:56.545 --> 11:58.045
countries,

11:58.705 --> 12:01.325
but, it's, it's reasonable to believe

12:01.325 --> 12:05.205
that our rationals could travel to, democracies.

12:05.905 --> 12:08.085
Uh, but to what extent can these apply

12:08.145 --> 12:10.525
to democracy democratic countries?

12:11.145 --> 12:14.405
Um, it's, it's a possible future study topic.

12:15.065 --> 12:18.405
Uh, more importantly, I think more relevant is, is,

12:18.405 --> 12:22.165
these recent more recent media campaigns on the fat issue,

12:22.425 --> 12:23.845
between the US China

12:23.845 --> 12:27.445
and South Korea, the media campaigns on US China trade War

12:27.445 --> 12:31.365
in 2018, on the origin of the Coronavirus,

12:31.365 --> 12:34.165
during the pandemic, the debate between the United States

12:34.185 --> 12:35.965
and China, the War War,

12:36.225 --> 12:39.565
and, Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

12:39.745 --> 12:44.005
So it'll be interesting to see how our theory can travel

12:44.225 --> 12:47.325
to explain all of these more recent media campaigns.

12:47.595 --> 12:49.205
Just to add the, last,

12:49.305 --> 12:52.845
the campaign last year over the Fukushima,

12:53.175 --> 12:57.725
wastewater release, has been very interesting to watch

12:57.785 --> 13:00.165
and has opened up a lot of those same sort

13:00.165 --> 13:02.285
of puzzling questions of, you know,

13:02.355 --> 13:03.685
this does need an explanation.

13:03.945 --> 13:06.925
Why is China making such a big deal out

13:06.925 --> 13:09.965
of this at a time when, you know, tensions

13:09.965 --> 13:11.725
with the United States are so high?

13:12.265 --> 13:14.845
And you would think that actually, and by

13:14.845 --> 13:18.085
and large, over the last few years, China,

13:18.085 --> 13:19.885
under Xi Jinping has placed a,

13:20.125 --> 13:23.165
a certain emphasis on stability in relations with Japan.

13:23.665 --> 13:27.045
So why now at this time, as of, you know,

13:27.045 --> 13:29.285
the second half of last year, why, why choose

13:29.305 --> 13:30.925
to make such a big deal outta that?

13:31.105 --> 13:32.965
And I think the, we'll only really get the answer

13:33.705 --> 13:37.405
by doing the kind of, sort of backbreaking,

13:38.155 --> 13:42.005
laborious and granular study of the content of the campaign,

13:42.505 --> 13:44.845
that we've tried to do here in

13:45.085 --> 13:46.125
relation to the arbitration.

13:46.195 --> 13:47.645
It's kind of a long-winded process,

13:47.905 --> 13:51.005
but I, I, you know, the answer might be out there.

Debating Authoritarian Propaganda and Foreign Policy

00:00:00 - First of all, we were looking at a debate in comparative politics about the purposes of authoritarian regimes, propaganda. In a general sense, a very interesting debate has been going on for a few years, about the extent to which, you know, intuitively it would be about persuasion. but then another side of that debate really argues that it's more about intimidating the public by deluging them with sort of outrageous propaganda and ultimately de demonstrating the state's power to sort
00:00:33 - and thereby transmit a message that you shouldn't challenge our power. 'cause the state is really very powerful. So it's ultimately not about persuasion. and we thought that debate is, is very interesting. But, but our view is that, you know, based on the case of China, authoritarian regimes are probably more ambitious than that. It's not just about sort of staying in power, and that authoritarian regimes can use propaganda for other purposes, mobilizing their allies, communicating to international audiences, maybe trying
00:01:06 - so that was one debate. And the other was really between international relations scholars like us who look specifically at the propaganda behavior on foreign policy issues. Is it proactively sort of state led for the state's purposes, like signaling or diversion, or is it kind of more reactive to public opinion and basically oriented towards containing nationalist sentiment? The case that we looked at was the Philippines versus China arbitration in the South China Sea,
00:01:38 - the background was, I, I think your listeners will probably be quite familiar with the South China Sea issue in general. but in 2013, the Philippines launched this arbitration case under the, UN convention on the Law of the Sea, after China seized control of Scarborough Shoal, one of these, mid-ocean features that, the Philippines previously considered itself to, control.
00:02:06 - to delegitimize the nine dash line claim that China had been sort of using, ambiguously to, demarcate the area that it was claiming sovereign maritime rights over, to basically get a ruling from international legal jurists that this was contrary to the 1982 UN convention on the Law of the Sea, which China was a signatory to. And so it was the Philippines. now China, actually didn't think this was really a,
00:02:37 - they thought that basically this type of litigation had been ruled out by its own, declaration in 2006 that it, it didn't accept any of the, dispute resolution, annexes in the UN convention on the Law of the Sea. The Philippines found, legal arguments to be able to bring it within the scope of the law of the sea. So China was shocked, and it really took a long time to, to respond two or three months really before it, figured out what its response was gonna be,

China's Contradictory Propaganda Strategy Explored

00:03:09 - to, to say that we're not recognizing it and we're not gonna implement it now. it would've made sense at that point to really just say as little about it as possible if you're really gonna ignore it, then launching a campaign of propaganda about it, is, is a strange way to go about ignoring a, a, a judicial proceeding that you don't recognize. and it was increasingly clear as the case went on over three years, between 2013
00:03:40 - that the result wasn't gonna be pretty for China. so we found it puzzling from a political, you know, political scientists always love a puzzle. So we found it puzzling that, that China would launch a propaganda campaign on this case that it was sort of certain to lose and that it said it was gonna ignore. and as we got closer and closer to the, the final arbitration decision, and China really ramped up the propaganda, to, to really 11 on the dial, at one point 206 articles in the flagship propaganda
00:04:14 - that's like three a day. so, you know, China wasn't doing a very good job from a propaganda point of view of ignoring the proceedings. So that was the puzzle that, that sort of set us up for this study. Francis has laid out four broad explanations, that are out there in the international relations literature to explain, you know, large scale propaganda campaigns like this. And the point that we were making theoretically was actually it's a bit of a mere culpa 'cause in our own work we've kind of set these up
00:04:44 - But when you look at it closely, and particularly through the lens of this case, it turns out that, you know, multiple explanations along these lines can all be present at the same time. At least that's what this case seemed to be telling us. So on the mobilization side, we saw lots of rhetoric of moral denunciation, sort of conspiracy theorizing from the PRC propaganda organs, like blaming the, the, the, the judge, the judge's background, Japanese heritage.
00:05:15 - basically a making it a huge international anti-China scandal, so as to try to ensure that the Chinese people didn't believe in the proceedings. so that's, that's, a kind of motivation, a mobilizational type of motivation. 'cause it's about trying to, keep the public's belief in the, in the state's claim, higher than it, they fear that it otherwise would've been if they'd have been, you know, allowed to, to have sort of, un unfiltered, kind
00:05:48 - but it was also very emotive and sort of mobilizing rhetoric that China used, mobilizing those regime allies, both internally like this kind of keyboard warriors to shout down anybody who, might have, might have been, inclined to say in an internet setting or on social media that maybe the Philippines has a point or that the nine dash line maybe wasn't, wasn't so compatible with the UN convention on the Law of the Sea. and also to, to kind of project an image

Signaling and Mobilization in Chinese Propaganda

00:06:21 - And that's where the second type of explanation, the signaling explanation comes in, because it was basically about mobilizing. It was very clearly about mobilizing those, regimes supporters to speak out in defense of the Chinese government's position, to international audiences. This was really clear from one of the social media campaigns that the state media kind of got behind, which was literally about sort of denouncing, denouncing the arbitration in two languages.
00:06:54 - That means the South China Sea arbitration, who cares? you know, the use of those two languages in the one slogan kind of depicts how the multiple audiences were in play there. and we saw other pretty compelling evidence that not only domestic audiences, but also international audiences were part of the CCP propaganda organs thinking, thinking here of the number of articles that were translated into English,
00:07:22 - compelling when once you, once you translate PRC propaganda into English, it becomes much less sort of persuasive. But nonetheless, they wanted that voice out there very clearly. otherwise they wouldn't have translated so many of the articles. another one was, in terms of what, what they wanted international audiences thinking about it. the PRC officials throughout the campaign were consistently referring to the strength of the feelings of the Chinese people. Basically referring to that, that logic
00:07:53 - before of hands tying of, saying to the international interlocutors, look, we've got domestic constraints here to, to take into account, and maybe even, you know, don't push things too far because the situation could get even more, dangerous if, for example, the United States tried to back the Philippines in actually implementing the, the, the findings of this, arbitration, ruling.
00:08:25 - angle, which I'll kick over to Francis for. I can jump in to talk about how, the rationale diversion and ification has played out in this case. So about diversion, there were a number of economic problems such as the stock market turbulence that started in the summer of 2015 persisted throughout 2016, economic growth slowed to a 25 year, low. And at the time there were a significant number
00:08:56 - of workers protests. In 2015 and 2016, we show a graph in our paper, and around the same time, very rarely we observed a couple of direct challenges were criticisms to Xi Jinping's policies and even demanding for his recognition, and the state media sensor coverage on all of these domestic problems, especially the stock market nose dive in the summer of 2015. Although there's no direct confirmatory evidence

Analyzing Propaganda's Role in Authoritarian Dynamics

00:09:27 - but at least these evidence that I've just talked about makes a diversionary motive for the campaign highly plausible. And about ification nationalist sentiment had risen to a level on the verge of losing control. The state propaganda, on the one hand, echoed the strong public sentiment with a very abrasive rhetoric to shorten the psychological distance between the public and the state. And the state also uses the harsh rhetoric as a posturing device to deflect nationalistic criticism to,
00:10:02 - sorry, we are taking up a, a, a highly, harsh heart line, foreign policy position. And at the same time, the propaganda also worked hard to instill reason and rational calculations to support a moderate foreign policy. Ironically, at the same time, and this is exemplified in the state media's calling for rational patriotism, saying that true patriotism should be good
00:10:33 - and calm in contrast to blind imposes extreme behaviors that endanger social and political stability, which translate in the Chinese context, of course, the survival of the CCP. And so to summarize that, we are seeing a convergence of all four explanations in this one single case. It's obviously very important to develop and improve an evidence-based and social scientific approach
00:11:02 - Given the strict importance of China's rise and US-China rivalry, and the increasing prevalence of authoritarian regimes and elevated popularism and nationalism across the world. One implication of our study is that authoritarian propaganda campaigns may have life cycles for future research. It could be useful to explore the possible sequencing of these motivations during the cycle of a foreign policy propaganda campaign. So one does, one motivation happens
00:11:35 - and another motivation might happen at a later stage. And if some of these happens simultaneously, it would be helpful to study in detail how they reinforce or counteract each other. And although our analysis is limited to authoritarian, regimes with strong, highly sophisticated institutionalized, countries, but, it's, it's reasonable to believe that our rationals could travel to, democracies.
00:12:08 - to democracy democratic countries? it's, it's a possible future study topic. more importantly, I think more relevant is, is, these recent more recent media campaigns on the fat issue, between the US China and South Korea, the media campaigns on US China trade War in 2018, on the origin of the Coronavirus, during the pandemic, the debate between the United States and China, the War War,

Media Campaigns and China's Foreign Policy Dynamics

00:12:39 - So it'll be interesting to see how our theory can travel to explain all of these more recent media campaigns. Just to add the, last, the campaign last year over the Fukushima, wastewater release, has been very interesting to watch and has opened up a lot of those same sort of puzzling questions of, you know, this does need an explanation. Why is China making such a big deal out
00:13:09 - with the United States are so high? And you would think that actually, and by and large, over the last few years, China, under Xi Jinping has placed a, a certain emphasis on stability in relations with Japan. So why now at this time, as of, you know, the second half of last year, why, why choose to make such a big deal outta that? And I think the, we'll only really get the answer by doing the kind of, sort of backbreaking,
00:13:47 - that we've tried to do here in relation to the arbitration. It's kind of a long-winded process, but I, I, you know, the answer might be out there.

Faculti AI can make mistakes

Research

Policy

Analysis