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How do the unique personalities and experience levels of presidents influence their attempts to extend their terms in office?

Image courtesy of interviewee. November 14, 2024

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This video discusses a research project which investigates the behavior of Latin American presidents, focusing particularly on the tendency of some leaders to attempt to overstay their terms in office by relaxing constitutional term limits. The researcher conducted interviews with 24 presidents across nine Latin American countries, exploring how individual characteristics, governance contexts, and relationships with constitutions influence presidential actions.

The research reveals that dominant personality traits, such as a desire for control and a tendency to impose their will, correlate with attempts to relax term limits. The study also suggests that politically inexperienced leaders are more likely to pursue such changes due to their naivete about the challenges involved and the backlash they may face.

After surveying over 1,000 experts to evaluate the psychometric characteristics of presidents from 1945 to 2021, the findings indicate that leaders with high dominance scores are significantly more likely to attempt to change term limits. Additionally, the study highlights that weak enforcement of constitutional rules makes it easier for leaders to violate them, undermining democratic norms and institutions.

The consequences of these actions often include the erosion of democracy, as seen in countries like Argentina, Honduras, Peru, and Venezuela, which transitioned from semi-democracies to authoritarian regimes under such leaders. The researcher emphasizes the need for further studies to understand the psychological profiles of leaders that correlate with these detrimental behaviors, suggesting that insights from differential psychology could improve our understanding of how leadership characteristics influence political outcomes. Ultimately, the goal of the research is to identify the factors that lead presidents to become overreaching leaders and the impact they have on democratic governance.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Exploratory Analysis of Presidential Behavior**: The author conducted interviews with 24 Latin American presidents across nine countries to explore how individual characteristics, governance convideos, and constitutional relationships influence presidential behavior, particularly in regard to efforts to remain in power beyond term limits.

2. **Dominant Individual Characteristics**: The research highlights that dominant individuals—characterized by a willingness to impose their will and challenge others—are more likely to attempt to relax term limits. The findings suggest a correlation between high dominance scores and the likelihood of presidents trying to extend their time in office.

3. **Psychometric Survey of Experts**: To assess the psychometric characteristics of presidents, a survey was conducted among over 1,000 experts who evaluated 152 presidents from 1945 to 2012 using validated personality scales, revealing that low dominance correlates with a low likelihood of attempting to change term limits.

4. **Impact of Political Experience**: The study indicates that politically inexperienced leaders are significantly more likely to attempt to relax term limits compared to their experienced counterparts. Political inexperience can lead to underestimating challenges and backlash, with a marked increase in attempts to change term limits among those without prior political experience.

5. **Consequences for Democracy**: The author notes that presidents who successfully relax term limits often undermine democratic institutions and norms, leading to a decline in democracy scores and possibly resulting in authoritarian regime shifts. The video stresses the importance of enforcing institutional rules and the challenges posed by unstable political cultures that allow such overreach.

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Here are some key quotes extracted from the video that summarize its main points regarding presidential behavior, term limits, and the political dynamics in Latin America:

1. **Exploratory Analysis of Presidential Behavior**: "I first conducted an exploratory analysis to understand presidential behavior... I went to nine countries and did semi-structured interviews with 24 Latin American presidents."

2. **Impact of Individual Characteristics**: "These leaders discussed whether their individual characteristics had an impact from their performance in office, the convideos in which they govern, and the relationships they have with their constitutions."

3. **Dominance and Term Limits**: "I propose that the characteristics of dominant individuals are associated with the presidential attempts to relax term limits... dominant individuals are people inclined to impose their will, and they're not very afraid of challenging others."

4. **Historical Examples of Overreach**: "For example, Honduras military overthrew Manuel Zelaya in 2009 to prevent him from overstaying in office... violent protests induced president Daniel Ortega to abandon his reformation efforts in 2017."

5. **Statistical Findings on Dominance**: "There's an almost 0% chance that presidents who score low in dominance will attempt to relax their term limits, but the probabilities of an attempt increased up to 16% when the leaders have the maximum score of dominance."

6. **Rules and Enforcement**: "The lesson from this experience is that institutional design is certainly important, but if the rules are not enforced, then they lose relevance."

7. **Differentiating Rule Changes and Overreach**: "I would like to distinguish between changing the rules of presidential term limits, which is not necessarily bad for democracy and attempts of presidents who try to overstay in office."

8. **Consequence of Overreaching Leaders**: "There is evidence that the country's democracy scores decline under this type of overreaching leaders, and some countries even experience regime changes."

9. **Political Experience and Its Effects**: "I found that when a leader is highly politically experienced, the likelihood that he or she will attempt to remove term limits is only 1.4%. However, when the presidents have no previous political experience, the likelihood to relax their term limits increases to 9%."

10. **Future Research Directions**: "Yet we still have a limited understanding of the difference that they make in office... Examining how the characteristics of leaders relate to political outcomes will allow us to understand the true impact that leaders make across situations in which their actions are central in presidential systems."

These quotes encapsulate the essence of the research presented, focusing on the relationships between presidential characteristics, political behavior, institutional designs, and democracy in the convideo of Latin America.

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I first conducted an exploratory analysis

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to understand presidential behavior.

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I, I went to nine countries

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and did, semi-structured interviews

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with 24 Latin American presidents.

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So, these leaders discussed whether their individual

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characteristics had an impact from their performance in

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office, the contexts in which they govern,

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and the relationships they have with their constitutions.

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These interviews helped me to,

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to understand presidential behavior,

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and also gave me ideas, about what can lead precedents

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to attempt to overstay overstaying office.

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And, and I propose that the characteristics of,

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dominant individuals are associated

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with the presidential attempts to relax.

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Term limits dominant individuals are,

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people inclined to impose their will,

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and they're not very afraid of challenging others.

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These are characteristics that a health presidents

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to continue their efforts to retain office

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despite intense opposition.

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So, for example, Hondura military overthrew Manuel Alia in

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2009 to prevent him from overstaying in office,

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in, in Wai violent protests,

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induced president Orio Cortez

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to abandon his reformation efforts in 2017.

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Dominant individuals also enjoy controlling their contexts

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and have a drive for control and, and overreaching.

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Presidents should be well equipped to control

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and lead others because they need to gain the support

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of other politicians to succeed in the reformation attempts.

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Another characteristics is that,

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dominant individuals are highly motivated, todo others,

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and over staying in office allows presidents to have a,

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to leave a bigger legacy than their predecessors dominant

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presidents should be of the kind

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that they particularly dislike, stepping down from office

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and see it as a personal loss to adversaries.

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Then, to measure the psychometric characteristics

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of presidents, I conducted a survey among hundreds

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of experts on American

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and Latin American presidents who were asked

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to fill out psychometric scales,

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validated in personality research.

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This was an enormous effort

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because it is extremely difficult

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to find experts on presidents, especially for presidents

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who were burned long ago and in the small

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and poorer countries.

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However, after an extensive, process

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research assistance,

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and I managed to find more than 1000 experts

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and several hundred evaluated 152 presidents

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who were governing from 1945 to 2012,

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I have recently expanded the survey in, in a,

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in a more recent wave.

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So now, 228 presidents who ruled

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until from 1945 to 2021 have been evaluated

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talking about dominance.

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There are different psychotic scales that dominance

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and I decided to follow the operationalization used in the

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International Personality Item pool

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because it captures the characteristics that I mentioned

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and that should motivate presence to attempt

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to relax their term limits.

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This scale identifies individuals who like

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to impose their will, are not afraid of challenging

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and criticizing others, enjoy controlling their context.

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And they're also motivated, as discussed,

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motivated to do others.

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So in the statistical analysis, I found

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that there's an almost 0% chance that precedents

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who score low in dominance will attempt

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to relax their term limits,

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but the probabilities of an attempt increased up

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to 16% when the leaders have the maximum score of dominance.

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The findings do not suggest

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that the rules about term limits are poorly designed.

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In some countries, the Conti,

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the Constitution can be amended by an absolute majority,

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which is a low threshold,

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but in most countries, it is not an easy endeavor.

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So, for example, in the years of my sample, which covers

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between 90 45

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and 2012, the most typical rule demands

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that at least two thirds of Congress plus an additional step

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is necessary to amend the Constitution.

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It's very difficult. Several of the presidents attempted

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to relax their term limits, eh, breaking the rules.

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So let me provide you an example.

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The last Latin American president who managed

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to bypass the constitution to remain in office

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was Najib Kelley of El Salvador.

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Um, in 2021, the Salvador Constitution has four articles

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that in different ways for big presidential reelection.

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However, BKE was able to run

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for reelection this year in 2024,

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because a subservient Supreme Court said that he could

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with an opaque legal interpretation of what, of

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what really is an open violation of the Constitution.

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So the lesson from this exper experience is

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that institutional design is certainly important,

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but if the rules are not enforced, then they lose relevance.

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And the problem in many of the American countries is

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that the rules are unstable

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or are weakly enforced, or both.

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Um, with respect to to the political culture,

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there is an indulgent relationship between weak institutions

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and elite behavior because the current elites may try

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to change the rules because the rules are unstable

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and the rules are unstable because the leads change them.

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This is a very difficult problem to solve.

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I would like to distinguish, between,

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changing the rules of presidential term limits,

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which is not necessarily bad for democracy

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and attempts of presidents who try

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to adjust the constitutions of their countries

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so they can oversay in office.

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So the second is what I study,

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and the consequences are generally bad for democracy.

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There is evidence

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that the country's democracy scores decline under this type

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of overreaching leaders,

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and some countries even experience regime changes.

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Argentina with Juan Domingo, Peron Honduras with

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Tios Andino, Peru and their Alberto Fujimori and Venezuela

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and their Ugo Chavez.

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All these countries moved from being semi democracies into

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authoritarian regimes.

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And in all these processes, presidents were able

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to retain power because they relaxed their term limits.

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So if you look at historical record, you'll find that some

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of the most influential Larry Meghan presidents attained

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historical prominence

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after they were able to overstay in office.

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Um, presidents

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who relax term limits under undermine democracy regime

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attributes mainly through two paths.

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First, they assault democratic institutions.

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Um, these leaders undermine the law by showing

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that people in power can change the rules to hold on

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to their positions

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and extend their term in their timing office.

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Additionally, leaders who stay in power for a long time

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weakened the checks and balances

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by building loyalty within the government

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through more appointments in areas like the bureaucracy,

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courts and the military.

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Second, these leaders erode democratic norms

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by constraining political competition.

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These leaders enjoy an incumbent advantage, including access

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to governmental resources and name recognition,

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and the voters aversion to change.

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So the records show that presidents who run for

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reelection often win,

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and the presidents who relax their term limits once often

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try again and succeed.

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In the interviews I conducted with former presidents,

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several of them remarked

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how relevant having political experience is for go.

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Research has also associated political inexperience

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with unconventional behavior.

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So building in these insights, in this paper, I proposed

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that political inexperienced residents are more likely

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to attempt to relax their turn limits for too many reasons.

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First, politically inexperienced ENTs are more prone

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to overlook all the challenges that are involved in trying

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to relax their term limits.

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This happens because they're unfamiliar with,

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governmental procedures and practices, and

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because they do not have experience with electoral

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and policy defeats, so they're not used

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to making concessions to rivals

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and achieving incremental changes in some,

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they're more likely to overestimate their

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chances of success.

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Second, these leaders are more likely

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to underestimate the backlash

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that their overreaching beha behavior will receive.

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Individuals who reach the presidency

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with little socialization in politics

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are not very constrained by elite networks

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and are unfamiliar with democratic norms such

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as making concessions to rivals.

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So they have succeeded

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because of their ties with their electoral base,

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not their ties with traditional political parties.

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Other political elite members do not have much

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influence on their behavior.

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Now, how to measure political experience

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is quite a challenge.

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It is not a straightforward, I used a free measures.

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The main one is based on the formal political positions the

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president's held before reaching the presidency.

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So I consider the most experienced leaders, those

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who had an executive

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and legislative trajectory, followed by leaders

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with either legislative

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or executive executive experience than those who held one

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or more positions at the subnational level.

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And the least experienced were those

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who had no formal experience whatsoever

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before becoming presidents in,

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and several leaders fall in this category as a robustness.

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I also measure experience considering the time politicians

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spent in a position

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and with a, with a dichotomous variable that distinguished

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between leaders who had political experience

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before reaching office and those who did not.

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So, I found

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that when a leader is highly political experienced,

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the likelihood that he

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or she will attempt to remove term limits

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is only 1.4%.

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However, when the presidents have no previous political

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experience, the chances that they will try

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to relax their time limits increases to 9%.

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There you go. That's important data.

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So where does, where do you think future

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research should be in this area?

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Yeah, so, I study national political leaders

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because their position is highly consequential

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for the societies they rule.

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Yet we still have a limited understanding of the difference

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that they make in office.

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Heads of government are undermining democratic attributes

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around the world today, yet a systematic analysis

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of which leaders ERO democracy is lacking.

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We ignore, for example,

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if overreaching leaders share individual characteristics

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that make them more prone to undermine democracy.

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And if we do not know whether anti-democratic leaders

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share specific commonalities, then the chances

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of identifying them

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and learning how to stop them are drastically reduced.

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The results, from my work suggests

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that presidential studies should more often employ insights

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from differential psychology and treat

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and developed differences of leaders

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as independent variables.

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Examining how the characteristics of leaders relate

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to political outcomes will allow us

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to understand the true impact that leaders

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make across situations

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in which their actions are central in presidential systems.

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For example, in legislating declaring emergencies

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or appointing cabinet members, the relevance

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of these individual characteristics should change according

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the, to the context of course.

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So we need to take into account the circumstances in which

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presidential behavior takes place.

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Now, you asked me what other personal characteristics,

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certainly other psychological

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and extra psychological characteristics of the leaders

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are relevant in terms of personality.

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I think a natural starting point is to examine

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how the big five core personality, personality traits

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that we all humans share have an impact on

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executive governance.

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Regarding, extra psychological characteristics,

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I think we need to think of central components

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that explain human behavior, such as level of education,

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soc, socioeconomic origin, gender, age, ethnicity,

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religion, whether the leaders had experience in security

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forces in regular organizations

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as entrepreneurs or in academia.

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These are important components that should shape

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how leaders see the world and therefore how they act in it.

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From a more distant perspective, I think

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that there are three types of fundamental questions

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that we need to address about national political leaders.

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First, what explains their selection to power?

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Why certain individuals are elected

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or selected to take office and not others?

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A second question is, what drives the leaders

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performance in office?

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What are the characteristics of these successful leaders?

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And finally, which leaders attain historical prominence?

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Who are the leaders that become so consequential

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that they make it into history?

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So the ultimate, the ultimate goal of my research is

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to address these important questions.

Exploring Presidential Behavior and Term Limit Overreach

00:00:00 - I first conducted an exploratory analysis to understand presidential behavior. I, I went to nine countries and did, semi-structured interviews with 24 Latin American presidents. So, these leaders discussed whether their individual characteristics had an impact from their performance in office, the contexts in which they govern, and the relationships they have with their constitutions. These interviews helped me to, to understand presidential behavior,

00:00:35 - to attempt to overstay overstaying office. And, and I propose that the characteristics of, dominant individuals are associated with the presidential attempts to relax. Term limits dominant individuals are, people inclined to impose their will, and they're not very afraid of challenging others. These are characteristics that a health presidents to continue their efforts to retain office

00:01:07 - So, for example, Hondura military overthrew Manuel Alia in 2009 to prevent him from overstaying in office, in, in Wai violent protests, induced president Orio Cortez to abandon his reformation efforts in 2017. Dominant individuals also enjoy controlling their contexts and have a drive for control and, and overreaching.

Dominance and Legacy in Presidential Leadership

00:01:38 - and lead others because they need to gain the support of other politicians to succeed in the reformation attempts. Another characteristics is that, dominant individuals are highly motivated, todo others, and over staying in office allows presidents to have a, to leave a bigger legacy than their predecessors dominant presidents should be of the kind that they particularly dislike, stepping down from office

00:02:10 - Then, to measure the psychometric characteristics of presidents, I conducted a survey among hundreds of experts on American and Latin American presidents who were asked to fill out psychometric scales, validated in personality research. This was an enormous effort because it is extremely difficult to find experts on presidents, especially for presidents

00:02:39 - and poorer countries. However, after an extensive, process research assistance, and I managed to find more than 1000 experts and several hundred evaluated 152 presidents who were governing from 1945 to 2012, I have recently expanded the survey in, in a, in a more recent wave. So now, 228 presidents who ruled

Psychometric Insights on Presidential Dominance and Term Limits

00:03:14 - talking about dominance. There are different psychotic scales that dominance and I decided to follow the operationalization used in the International Personality Item pool because it captures the characteristics that I mentioned and that should motivate presence to attempt to relax their term limits. This scale identifies individuals who like to impose their will, are not afraid of challenging

00:03:45 - And they're also motivated, as discussed, motivated to do others. So in the statistical analysis, I found that there's an almost 0% chance that precedents who score low in dominance will attempt to relax their term limits, but the probabilities of an attempt increased up to 16% when the leaders have the maximum score of dominance. The findings do not suggest that the rules about term limits are poorly designed.

00:04:16 - the Constitution can be amended by an absolute majority, which is a low threshold, but in most countries, it is not an easy endeavor. So, for example, in the years of my sample, which covers between 90 45 and 2012, the most typical rule demands that at least two thirds of Congress plus an additional step is necessary to amend the Constitution. It's very difficult. Several of the presidents attempted to relax their term limits, eh, breaking the rules.

Constitutional Erosion in Latin America: The Case of Najib Kelley

00:04:52 - The last Latin American president who managed to bypass the constitution to remain in office was Najib Kelley of El Salvador. in 2021, the Salvador Constitution has four articles that in different ways for big presidential reelection. However, BKE was able to run for reelection this year in 2024, because a subservient Supreme Court said that he could

00:05:24 - what really is an open violation of the Constitution. So the lesson from this exper experience is that institutional design is certainly important, but if the rules are not enforced, then they lose relevance. And the problem in many of the American countries is that the rules are unstable or are weakly enforced, or both. with respect to to the political culture,

00:05:58 - and elite behavior because the current elites may try to change the rules because the rules are unstable and the rules are unstable because the leads change them. This is a very difficult problem to solve. I would like to distinguish, between, changing the rules of presidential term limits, which is not necessarily bad for democracy and attempts of presidents who try

Impacts of Overreaching Leadership on Democracy

00:06:28 - so they can oversay in office. So the second is what I study, and the consequences are generally bad for democracy. There is evidence that the country's democracy scores decline under this type of overreaching leaders, and some countries even experience regime changes. Argentina with Juan Domingo, Peron Honduras with

00:07:01 - and their Ugo Chavez. All these countries moved from being semi democracies into authoritarian regimes. And in all these processes, presidents were able to retain power because they relaxed their term limits. So if you look at historical record, you'll find that some of the most influential Larry Meghan presidents attained historical prominence after they were able to overstay in office.

00:07:31 - who relax term limits under undermine democracy regime attributes mainly through two paths. First, they assault democratic institutions. these leaders undermine the law by showing that people in power can change the rules to hold on to their positions and extend their term in their timing office. Additionally, leaders who stay in power for a long time weakened the checks and balances

Political Experience and Democratic Erosion

00:08:03 - through more appointments in areas like the bureaucracy, courts and the military. Second, these leaders erode democratic norms by constraining political competition. These leaders enjoy an incumbent advantage, including access to governmental resources and name recognition, and the voters aversion to change. So the records show that presidents who run for

00:08:34 - and the presidents who relax their term limits once often try again and succeed. In the interviews I conducted with former presidents, several of them remarked how relevant having political experience is for go. Research has also associated political inexperience with unconventional behavior. So building in these insights, in this paper, I proposed that political inexperienced residents are more likely

00:09:08 - First, politically inexperienced ENTs are more prone to overlook all the challenges that are involved in trying to relax their term limits. This happens because they're unfamiliar with, governmental procedures and practices, and because they do not have experience with electoral and policy defeats, so they're not used to making concessions to rivals and achieving incremental changes in some,

Political Inexperience and Overreaching Behavior in Leadership

00:09:40 - chances of success. Second, these leaders are more likely to underestimate the backlash that their overreaching beha behavior will receive. Individuals who reach the presidency with little socialization in politics are not very constrained by elite networks and are unfamiliar with democratic norms such as making concessions to rivals. So they have succeeded

00:10:11 - not their ties with traditional political parties. Other political elite members do not have much influence on their behavior. Now, how to measure political experience is quite a challenge. It is not a straightforward, I used a free measures. The main one is based on the formal political positions the president's held before reaching the presidency.

00:10:41 - who had an executive and legislative trajectory, followed by leaders with either legislative or executive executive experience than those who held one or more positions at the subnational level. And the least experienced were those who had no formal experience whatsoever before becoming presidents in, and several leaders fall in this category as a robustness.

Impact of Political Experience on Term Limit Relaxation

00:11:14 - spent in a position and with a, with a dichotomous variable that distinguished between leaders who had political experience before reaching office and those who did not. So, I found that when a leader is highly political experienced, the likelihood that he or she will attempt to remove term limits is only 1.4%. However, when the presidents have no previous political

00:11:45 - to relax their time limits increases to 9%. There you go. That's important data. So where does, where do you think future research should be in this area? Yeah, so, I study national political leaders because their position is highly consequential for the societies they rule. Yet we still have a limited understanding of the difference that they make in office. Heads of government are undermining democratic attributes

00:12:20 - of which leaders ERO democracy is lacking. We ignore, for example, if overreaching leaders share individual characteristics that make them more prone to undermine democracy. And if we do not know whether anti-democratic leaders share specific commonalities, then the chances of identifying them and learning how to stop them are drastically reduced. The results, from my work suggests

Examining Leader Characteristics and Their Political Impact

00:12:53 - from differential psychology and treat and developed differences of leaders as independent variables. Examining how the characteristics of leaders relate to political outcomes will allow us to understand the true impact that leaders make across situations in which their actions are central in presidential systems. For example, in legislating declaring emergencies or appointing cabinet members, the relevance

00:13:27 - the, to the context of course. So we need to take into account the circumstances in which presidential behavior takes place. Now, you asked me what other personal characteristics, certainly other psychological and extra psychological characteristics of the leaders are relevant in terms of personality. I think a natural starting point is to examine

00:13:58 - that we all humans share have an impact on executive governance. Regarding, extra psychological characteristics, I think we need to think of central components that explain human behavior, such as level of education, soc, socioeconomic origin, gender, age, ethnicity, religion, whether the leaders had experience in security

Exploring the Dynamics of Political Leadership

00:14:30 - as entrepreneurs or in academia. These are important components that should shape how leaders see the world and therefore how they act in it. From a more distant perspective, I think that there are three types of fundamental questions that we need to address about national political leaders. First, what explains their selection to power?

00:15:02 - or selected to take office and not others? A second question is, what drives the leaders performance in office? What are the characteristics of these successful leaders? And finally, which leaders attain historical prominence? Who are the leaders that become so consequential that they make it into history? So the ultimate, the ultimate goal of my research is

00:15:30 -

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