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Linkages between oil price shocks and stock returns revisited

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How does the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns vary across countries and change over time, and what does this mean for oil importers and exporters?

Image courtesy of interviewee. October 20, 2024

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This video discusses research on the relationship between oil price shocks and their impact on the macro economy and financial markets, particularly stock market returns, since the early 1980s. Early studies had difficulty reaching a consensus on this relationship, but more recent research has established its existence and suggests that the definition of oil price shocks may have been too generic.

Recent studies have delved into the nature of these shocks, categorizing them into types such as crude oil supply shocks, global demand shocks, and precautionary demand shocks. The latter, which involves increased demand due to concerns about future oil supply disruptions, appears to have the most significant impact on stock market returns.

Further analyses reveal that the relationship varies depending on whether countries are oil importers or exporters and is influenced by market conditions and the nature of the shocks. For instance, findings suggest that large negative oil price shocks negatively affect stock returns, while positive shocks can yield higher returns during booming market conditions. However, the dynamic is complex and varies across different countries and periods.

Additionally, the relationship is unstable, especially post-global financial crisis (GFC), complicating long-term analyses and predictions. The implication is that as countries transition to greener energies, capturing and understanding this relationship will become increasingly challenging, signaling the need for ongoing research in this area.

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Here are 5 key points from the video:

1. **Historical Research Findings**: In the early 1980s, studies began investigating the link between oil price shocks and the macroeconomy and financial markets. Initially, there was no clear consensus on whether a link existed, but more recent studies have confirmed that such a link does exist.

2. **Evolving Definitions and Focus**: The definition of oil price shocks has evolved from a generic understanding to a more nuanced one that recognizes different types of shocks (e.g., crude oil supply shocks, global demand shocks, and precautionary demand shocks). Recent research emphasizes the importance of assessing the distributional relationship rather than merely average effects.

3. **Precautionary Demand Shocks**: A significant finding is that precautionary demand shocks, where concerns over future oil supply lead to increased current demand, play a critical role in affecting the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns.

4. **Influence of Country Classification**: The relationship between oil price shocks and stock returns varies depending on whether a country is an oil importer, exporter, or moderately oil-dependent. Studies have shown that the effects of these shocks are not universally applicable across different countries.

5. **Instability of Relationship**: The relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns is complex and unstable, influenced by various factors such as the nature of the underlying shock, the oil trade position of the country, and prevailing market conditions. The transition toward green energy is expected to further complicate this relationship in the future.

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Here are some key quotes extracted from your video that encapsulate the primary ideas:

1. "In the early 1980s, several studies have investigated the link between oil price shocks and either the macro economy or the financial market."
2. "For a long time, no clear consensus emerged as to whether a link even existed between the two."
3. "More recent studies have shown that the link does exist, but they started to worry about the fact that the definition of the oil price shock was a bit too generic."
4. "It’s really about which quantile affects most the stock market, and is the effect different when the stock market is performing well or performing poorly."
5. "The literature really started to take off in 2009 with a paper by Killian, who proposes structural VAR to decompose the shock of the real price of crude oil."
6. "You have three different types of shocks: crude oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for oil, and what we call the precautionary demand shocks."
7. "Precautionary demand shocks are the ones that mainly drive the relationship between the oil price shock and stock market returns."
8. "What we found is that oil importers, oil exporters, and moderately oil-dependent countries have very different relationships between these oil price shocks and their stock returns."
9. "The relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns appears very unstable and quite complex."
10. "While there's sufficient evidence to suggest that there is indeed a relationship between these two variables, offering a comprehensive view on what this relationship actually looks like, especially in the long run, is an extremely difficult exercise."

These quotes highlight the complexity and evolving understanding of the relationship between oil price shocks and stock market returns, the different types of shocks, and the importance of convideo (like country classification and market conditions) in analyzing this relationship.

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP=LOCAL:00:00:00.000,MPEGTS:90000

1
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In the early 1980s, several studies have investigated the,

2
00:00:04.665 --> 00:00:06.405
link between all price shock

3
00:00:06.545 --> 00:00:09.885
and either the macro economy or, the financial market.

4
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Uh, yet for a long time, no clear consensus emerged as

5
00:00:13.865 --> 00:00:16.725
to whether a link even, between the two even existed.

6
00:00:17.585 --> 00:00:21.005
So in more recent times, some studies have not only shown

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00:00:21.035 --> 00:00:22.965
that the link does exist,

8
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but what they started to worry about is the fact that

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the definition of the oil price shock was a bit too generic.

10
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And so they started to go into the nature of those shocks,

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and this is when the existence

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of the link became a bit more apparent.

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The other thing is

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that rather than looking at the average relationship

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between the, stock market prices

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and the old price sharks,

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people went a bit deeper into the

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distributional relationship.

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So it's not just about averages as averages,

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it's really about which quantile affects most,

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the stock market, and is the effect different when the stock

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market is performing well or performing poorly.

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So to this day, the relationship,

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the question about the relationship between,

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the all price shock and the stock market return is still

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pretty much alive and well.

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And so we, it's still remained a focus of a key,

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ongoing research.

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I think the literature really, started, to,

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you know, take up in 2009 with a paper by Killian,

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who proposes structural VA to be able to decompose the,

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shock of the real price of crude oil,

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and identify the nature, of those sharks.

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You have three different type of sharks.

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You have the, crude oil supply sharks,

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you have the shocks to the global demand of oil,

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industrial commodities, and more importantly,

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and that's the one that, will really,

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I think define what's happening next in the literature is

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what we call, the precautionary demand shocks.

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This is when people are worried about what is likely

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to happen in the oil supply, in the next, you know,

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coming month or years, and

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therefore they just have an increase in demand right now.

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So is analysis suggests that it's not

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so much the physical disruption of oil supply that,

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affect the market, but rather the

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precautionary demand shocks.

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So that was already a bit of a, I guess, a surprise,

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to a lot of people when, it looked at the relationship

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between the stock market return and the oil price shock.

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It find that indeed that precautionary demand shocks,

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are the one that mainly drive a relationship

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between the two viable.

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So four years later, w Etal decided

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to revisit that relationship between the oil price shock

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and, the, stock market region.

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And the way they've done that is by having 15 different,

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countries that they classify into either

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oil importer or oil exporter.

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And what they find is that this relationship

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Between the oil price shark

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and the stock returns is really

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dependent on not only the nature of a shark,

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but also on whether a country is an oil importer

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or an oil exporter.

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So that was a next step in the literature.

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And then in 2015,

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Siemens Zoo offer further insight into that relationship.

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And the way they went about it was to argue that it's likely

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that a large shock or a small one

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or a positive one versus is a negative one,

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will have different relationship with the stock market,

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depending if the stock market performs well or not.

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So you have this quantile on one side,

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you have a quantile on the other side,

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and you're trying to see

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how these two interact with one another.

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So what we've done is establish a distributor

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distributional relationship between, the two valuable.

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So what we did in that paper is basically to take this,

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quantile and quantile approach

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and we decided to apply it on, 15 countries.

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We classify into either oil importers, oil exporters,

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or moderately oil dependent,

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depending on the net position of, grid oil trade,

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that they had in 2009.

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And then we of course control for the impact

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of the US market on all the other market.

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And, we also extend the analysis to post,

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GFC data for the dataset.

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We use monthly data from data stream spanning from,

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January, 1988 to December, 2016

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for 15 countries.

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Um, for each country, the stock returns were calculated

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as the continuously compounded returns

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of a morganstein leg capital international.

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So MSCI, market index in US dollars

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minus the inflation rate.

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The inflation rate was, as per normal,

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I would say calculated as the log difference in the consumer

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00:04:54.905 --> 00:04:56.495
price price index over time.

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00:04:57.315 --> 00:04:58.655
And for the oil price chart,

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00:04:58.655 --> 00:05:01.335
what we did is use monthly data over the same period

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00:05:01.915 --> 00:05:03.295
on pre oil production

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00:05:03.315 --> 00:05:05.535
and prices in US dollars,

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00:05:05.535 --> 00:05:07.215
from the US Department of Energy.

108
00:05:07.235 --> 00:05:11.375
And then we followed, Killian's, methodology

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00:05:11.875 --> 00:05:15.895
and we computed the global real, activity using an index

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00:05:16.075 --> 00:05:18.975
of cargo ocean shipping, f freight rates.

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00:05:19.205 --> 00:05:21.655
Finally, we followed Siemens Zoo

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00:05:21.675 --> 00:05:23.775
and we filter the oil price shocks through,

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00:05:23.775 --> 00:05:26.695
their three valuable ASR models similar to Siemens Zoo.

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00:05:26.915 --> 00:05:29.895
Uh, we found that the three largest oil importing countries,

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00:05:30.195 --> 00:05:32.735
experience increased returns when the

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00:05:32.735 --> 00:05:34.055
market is performing well.

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00:05:34.515 --> 00:05:37.375
And there is a large negative oil price, shocked,

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00:05:37.755 --> 00:05:40.975
but their results should not, be,

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00:05:40.975 --> 00:05:43.015
generalized naively to other countries.

120
00:05:43.195 --> 00:05:44.775
And, they're not universal

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00:05:44.775 --> 00:05:47.695
because the relationship, what we found is

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00:05:47.695 --> 00:05:50.335
that it also varies on the country's classification.

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00:05:50.555 --> 00:05:52.935
So oil importers and oil exporters

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00:05:52.995 --> 00:05:55.695
and moderately oil, dependent,

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countries have very different relationship

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00:05:58.565 --> 00:06:00.485
between these all price stock and their stock returns.

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00:06:00.705 --> 00:06:03.605
Unlike the US we didn't find any asymmetric effect

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of all price sharks on stock returns

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00:06:06.345 --> 00:06:07.685
for most country considered,

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00:06:07.855 --> 00:06:09.605
which was a finding by Siemens Zoo.

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00:06:09.905 --> 00:06:12.805
And in particular, what we found, which they didn't find,

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00:06:12.805 --> 00:06:15.405
was that positive oil price sharks often done

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00:06:15.405 --> 00:06:18.885
to have a even higher impact on the,

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00:06:18.895 --> 00:06:21.685
stock returns than large negative all price shock.

135
00:06:22.305 --> 00:06:27.075
So the last thing is on the poor market conditions, all type

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of all price shock, decreased stock return,

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00:06:29.015 --> 00:06:30.075
for all countries.

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00:06:30.775 --> 00:06:32.995
Now the other thing that we found is

139
00:06:32.995 --> 00:06:35.635
because we extended the data post GFC, is

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00:06:35.635 --> 00:06:38.035
that the relationship between oil price stock

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00:06:38.035 --> 00:06:40.115
and stock retail is extremely unstable.

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00:06:41.015 --> 00:06:43.555
And, so it makes it even harder,

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00:06:43.615 --> 00:06:45.155
and especially for oil importers

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00:06:45.155 --> 00:06:47.555
and oil exporters country, much more so than those

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00:06:47.555 --> 00:06:49.315
who are just more directly dependent on oil.

146
00:06:49.695 --> 00:06:51.155
It makes it even harder to capture

147
00:06:51.265 --> 00:06:53.355
that relationship over a longer period of time.

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00:06:53.975 --> 00:06:57.035
And your results are pretty much, period dependent.

149
00:06:57.215 --> 00:06:59.155
The relationship between all price sharks

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00:06:59.155 --> 00:07:01.515
and stock market returns appear very unstable

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00:07:01.735 --> 00:07:03.875
and quite complex, first.

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00:07:04.015 --> 00:07:07.275
So it depends on the nature of the underlying shark,

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00:07:07.485 --> 00:07:09.875
which, drives the change in oil prices

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00:07:10.335 --> 00:07:14.635
and also it's, it is influenced by, countries,

155
00:07:15.055 --> 00:07:17.795
CR oil trade position at the time of the study.

156
00:07:18.655 --> 00:07:20.875
It also depends on the time period you're looking at

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00:07:21.695 --> 00:07:23.395
and the magnitude of the sharks

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00:07:23.415 --> 00:07:25.515
and the prevalent market condition,

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00:07:25.575 --> 00:07:27.155
at the time play significant role.

160
00:07:27.335 --> 00:07:30.835
So while there's sufficient evidence to suggest

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00:07:30.865 --> 00:07:32.715
that there is indeed a relationship

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00:07:32.715 --> 00:07:34.595
between these two variable, being able

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00:07:34.655 --> 00:07:36.435
to offer a comprehensive view on

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00:07:36.435 --> 00:07:39.515
what this relationship actually look like,

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00:07:39.815 --> 00:07:41.515
and in particular in the long run is an

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00:07:41.515 --> 00:07:42.915
extremely difficult exercise.

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00:07:43.455 --> 00:07:46.635
And with countries going on to going to more

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and more green energies

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and less dependence of oil, this is going

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00:07:50.715 --> 00:07:52.035
to complicate even further

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how we can capture this relationship, how it's going

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00:07:56.355 --> 00:07:57.395
to evolve over time.

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And there will be more work to do on that.

Exploring Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Relationships

00:00:00 - In the early 1980s, several studies have investigated the, link between all price shock and either the macro economy or, the financial market. yet for a long time, no clear consensus emerged as to whether a link even, between the two even existed. So in more recent times, some studies have not only shown that the link does exist, but what they started to worry about is the fact that the definition of the oil price shock was a bit too generic.

00:00:33 - and this is when the existence of the link became a bit more apparent. The other thing is that rather than looking at the average relationship between the, stock market prices and the old price sharks, people went a bit deeper into the distributional relationship. So it's not just about averages as averages, it's really about which quantile affects most, the stock market, and is the effect different when the stock market is performing well or performing poorly.

00:01:05 - the question about the relationship between, the all price shock and the stock market return is still pretty much alive and well. And so we, it's still remained a focus of a key, ongoing research. I think the literature really, started, to, you know, take up in 2009 with a paper by Killian, who proposes structural VA to be able to decompose the, shock of the real price of crude oil,

Understanding Oil Price Shocks and Their Impact on Markets

00:01:36 - You have three different type of sharks. You have the, crude oil supply sharks, you have the shocks to the global demand of oil, industrial commodities, and more importantly, and that's the one that, will really, I think define what's happening next in the literature is what we call, the precautionary demand shocks. This is when people are worried about what is likely to happen in the oil supply, in the next, you know, coming month or years, and therefore they just have an increase in demand right now.

00:02:09 - so much the physical disruption of oil supply that, affect the market, but rather the precautionary demand shocks. So that was already a bit of a, I guess, a surprise, to a lot of people when, it looked at the relationship between the stock market return and the oil price shock. It find that indeed that precautionary demand shocks, are the one that mainly drive a relationship between the two viable. So four years later, w Etal decided

00:02:43 - and, the, stock market region. And the way they've done that is by having 15 different, countries that they classify into either oil importer or oil exporter. And what they find is that this relationship Between the oil price shark and the stock returns is really dependent on not only the nature of a shark, but also on whether a country is an oil importer or an oil exporter.

Exploring Stock Market Responses to Oil Price Shocks

00:03:14 - And then in 2015, Siemens Zoo offer further insight into that relationship. And the way they went about it was to argue that it's likely that a large shock or a small one or a positive one versus is a negative one, will have different relationship with the stock market, depending if the stock market performs well or not. So you have this quantile on one side, you have a quantile on the other side, and you're trying to see

00:03:43 - So what we've done is establish a distributor distributional relationship between, the two valuable. So what we did in that paper is basically to take this, quantile and quantile approach and we decided to apply it on, 15 countries. We classify into either oil importers, oil exporters, or moderately oil dependent, depending on the net position of, grid oil trade, that they had in 2009.

00:04:16 - of the US market on all the other market. And, we also extend the analysis to post, GFC data for the dataset. We use monthly data from data stream spanning from, January, 1988 to December, 2016 for 15 countries. for each country, the stock returns were calculated as the continuously compounded returns of a morganstein leg capital international.

Analyzing Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Returns

00:04:47 - minus the inflation rate. The inflation rate was, as per normal, I would say calculated as the log difference in the consumer price price index over time. And for the oil price chart, what we did is use monthly data over the same period on pre oil production and prices in US dollars, from the US Department of Energy. And then we followed, Killian's, methodology and we computed the global real, activity using an index

00:05:19 - Finally, we followed Siemens Zoo and we filter the oil price shocks through, their three valuable ASR models similar to Siemens Zoo. we found that the three largest oil importing countries, experience increased returns when the market is performing well. And there is a large negative oil price, shocked, but their results should not, be, generalized naively to other countries. And, they're not universal because the relationship, what we found is

00:05:50 - So oil importers and oil exporters and moderately oil, dependent, countries have very different relationship between these all price stock and their stock returns. Unlike the US we didn't find any asymmetric effect of all price sharks on stock returns for most country considered, which was a finding by Siemens Zoo. And in particular, what we found, which they didn't find, was that positive oil price sharks often done to have a even higher impact on the,

Instability of Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Returns

00:06:22 - So the last thing is on the poor market conditions, all type of all price shock, decreased stock return, for all countries. Now the other thing that we found is because we extended the data post GFC, is that the relationship between oil price stock and stock retail is extremely unstable. And, so it makes it even harder, and especially for oil importers and oil exporters country, much more so than those who are just more directly dependent on oil.

00:06:51 - that relationship over a longer period of time. And your results are pretty much, period dependent. The relationship between all price sharks and stock market returns appear very unstable and quite complex, first. So it depends on the nature of the underlying shark, which, drives the change in oil prices and also it's, it is influenced by, countries, CR oil trade position at the time of the study. It also depends on the time period you're looking at

00:07:23 - and the prevalent market condition, at the time play significant role. So while there's sufficient evidence to suggest that there is indeed a relationship between these two variable, being able to offer a comprehensive view on what this relationship actually look like, and in particular in the long run is an extremely difficult exercise. And with countries going on to going to more and more green energies and less dependence of oil, this is going to complicate even further