Syria Crisis: Power Dynamics, Justice, and Reconstruction in Post-Assad Syria

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How will Assad’s fall impact Middle East geopolitics, justice for victims, and Syria’s stability?

Image courtesy of interviewee. December 9, 2024

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This video discusses the significant geopolitical shifts in the aftermath of the Syrian conflict, particularly in relation to the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The speaker emphasizes how this event could impact regional dynamics and alliances, specifically highlighting the roles of major players such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States.

Key points include:
1. **Shifts in Regional Influence**: The operations that began on November 27 signify a change in the influence of regional actors who have historically supported Assad. The fall of his regime could mark a pivotal moment for regional geopolitics.

2. **Emerging Roles of External Actors**: Israel has become a more involved player, conducting operations against Hezbollah and Iranian positions in Syria, effectively seeking to secure its borders and interests.

3. **Vacuum of Power**: The speaker notes the potential power vacuums in Syria could lead to intensified competition among external actors as they vie for influence amidst the changing circumstances.

4. **Need for Structured Transition**: While the possibility of Assad's downfall is seen as a positive development, there remain challenges. The need for structured transitional justice and cooperation with Syrian-led organizations, as well as addressing accountability for past violations, is emphasized.

5. **Fragmentation of Opposition**: The current fragmentation among Syrian opposition groups poses challenges for achieving a coherent governance structure post-Assad.

6. **Reevaluating International Processes**: This video calls for international mechanisms to evolve and adapt to the new realities in Syria, stating that existing frameworks are no longer adequate given the changing situation.

The overall message underscores the complexity of the Syrian conflict's aftermath, emphasizing the necessity for cooperation and a shift in international engagement strategies to effectively address the emerging realities on the ground.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Regional Dynamics Shift**: The video highlights the significant impact of recent conflicts, particularly the Arab uprisings, on regional dynamics in the Middle East, emphasizing that the ongoing operations since November signify shifts in the influence of regional actors like Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the U.S.

2. **Fall of Assad Regime**: The potential fall of the Assad regime in Syria is framed as a major turning point for regional geopolitics, altering the alliances and positions of regional players who have been primarily involved in the Syrian conflict for years.

3. **Role of Israel and External Actors**: Israel is identified as an emerging player in the conflict, particularly through its military actions aimed at countering Iranian influence in Syria. The narrative suggests that there is a power vacuum creating competition among external actors, including the U.S., Turkey, and Russia, to secure their interests in the region.

4. **Importance of Transitional Justice and Civil Society**: The video calls for the establishment of mechanisms for accountability and reconstruction that include cooperation with civil society organizations alongside the armed factions. It stresses that transitional justice must involve structured processes to ensure that justice is served without spawning further sectarian tensions.

5. **Challenges to Governance and Inclusion**: The video recognizes the complexities and challenges faced by the Syrian opposition and civil society concerning governance, reconstruction, and the need for inclusivity in the political process. It emphasizes the urgency of establishing a structured approach to transition following the potential fall of the Assad regime and the various ongoing negotiations.

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Based on the video , here are key quotes that encapsulate the main themes and ideas:

1. **Impact on Regional Dynamics**: "I think it kind of impact the re the, the, the, the regional dynamics to, to, to a lot of extent."

2. **Turning Point in Geopolitics**: "The fall of Baal Asad regime would mark a significant turning point for regional geopolitics."

3. **Main Players in the Conflict**: "We have Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the US... the main two players that pin an ally to us, that I think for Iran in probing up Assads."

4. **Effect of External Actions**: "Israel here became a player... attacks on Hezbollah... helped the armed factions from the oppositions to choose the time where, where they can contain Iranian influence."

5. **Shift in Alliances**: "I think the realist kinda, theoretical framework of the Syrian conflict does not tell us a lot about what these shifts are, that now at stake."

6. **Power Vacuum and Rivalries**: "There is potential rivalries, there is a power vacuum in Syria, which might intensify competitions among external actors."

7. **Importance of Accountability**: "There should have been certain cooperation with Syrian led organizations... to address the mechanisms for accountability and evidence preservation."

8. **Transitional Justice**: "I think it's now the moment for the transitional justice mechanism to take, to take its role... not only to be led by armed factions in on the ground, but to also by civil society organization."

9. **Need for Structured Mechanisms**: "There should be in a place, a structured mechanism. So justice does not mean for fully forgiving."

10. **Challenges Ahead**: "There are many challenges that, that DDR programs that should be in place, for example, for these armed functions."

These quotes showcase the complexities of the Syrian conflict, the roles of various regional actors, and the necessity for accountability and structured transitions in the aftermath of significant political changes.

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I think it kind of impact the re the, the, the,

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the regional dynamics to, to, to a lot of extent.

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So what we have seen

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before with the start, with the, with the Arab uprisings

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or Arab Springs, we can see like a more of, unfolded,

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certain regional dynamics

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and certain involvements of regional actors.

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What, what, what marks the, the, the operations, the, the,

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the offensive that started on the 27th of, of November.

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I think Marks shifts in influence in terms

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of these regional actors that have kind of,

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had the Asad regime as their allies for, for as,

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as the main allies for, for the last 14 years at least.

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So the fall of Baal Asad regime would mark a significant

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turning point for regional geopolitics.

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I think to start with the, the, the main player players,

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in the, in the, in the Syrian conflicts

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before the fall of, of of, of Baal Asad.

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We have Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the us

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however, to start with the main two players that pin an ally

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to us, that I think for Iran

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and Russia, who have invested heavily in, in,

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in probing up Assads and, and, and,

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and kind of, try to play with the, with, with him,

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normalizing him with the, with the Arab,

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with certain a nations that would face diminished influence.

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And I think what's, what's like, while we are kind

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of focusing on what happens in Syria, we,

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we should not forget the 7th of October.

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And it's kind of, the way that its impact on,

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on shifting these kind of alliances

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that pre-exist alliances.

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And I think Israel here became a player where it,

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it, it's attacks on Hezbollah,

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it's attacks also on certain Iranians,

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security positions in Syria helped, the, the, the,

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the, the, the armed factions from the oppositions to,

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to choose the time where, where they can contain,

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Iranian influence.

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And I think Russia also kind of, with,

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with the war on Ukraine, that it had very much limited

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capacity to, to assist Assad.

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So that was, there is a shift in dynamics.

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And I think the realist kinda, theoretical

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framework of the Syrian conflict does not tell us a lot

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about what these shifts are, that, that now at stake.

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At at stakes we have Russia, Turkey,

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and the US who have like direct influence on the grounds,

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like the US is in northeast Syria.

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We have also Turkey who has banks of these militias,

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for the last 13 years in northern Syria.

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And we have also the US packing SDF in no, and,

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and we have also Russia that wants, sorry, to, to, to,

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to kind of secure its, its its interest in,

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in the coastal area.

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Now, of course, Israel became a player,

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as we have seen in the last 2, 2, 3 days, that Israel wants

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to protect its, the southern, to,

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to create a buffer zone in southern, in southern Syria.

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And that the, like, the scary thing that Israel

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continue these attacks on southern parts of Syria, were kind

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of at some point occupying southern Syria.

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So there are, there is potential rivalries,

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there is a power vacuum in Syria,

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which might intensify competitions

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among external actors while we are in the face

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of full victories.

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But of course, these countries are now still continuing

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negotiating set

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and settlements to secure their interest in Syria

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while Syrians

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and even international kind

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of media have focused on the fall of Asad, which kind

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of bring us all certain joy, of course,

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that Asad array is, is done.

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However, I think there's some kind of vacuum here.

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And there was, there is a gap that needs to be filled that

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while it's very kind of joyful moments that we know finally

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the, the, the, the fate of these forcefully,

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disappeared.

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There should have been certain cooperation

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with Syrian led organizations on that have been working

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for the last 10, for the last 13 years on,

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on documenting violations of Assad against these Bhutanese.

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And I think there should be certain cooperation between,

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between those who are leading the op, the of the armed,

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of the, the this kind of armed operations on the ground

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and these kind of civil society organizations,

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that's Syrian led and also European led.

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And I think here that needs to kind

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of address the mechanisms for accountability,

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the, the documenting, and,

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and evidence, preservation.

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Uh, we need, there are certain challenges which kind of,

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that certain such as fragmentation and functionalism

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and factionism, and we need an inclusive governance and,

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and, and reconstructions.

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However, I think it's now the moment

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for the transitional justice mechanism to take,

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to take its role, which is not only to be led by

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armed factions in on the ground,

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but to also by civil society organization

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that are Syrian led or, internationally led.

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But so far have been presented

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or like by, by the arm factions such as the HTS

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or other, arm factions in their, in their statements

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that they are not leading this kind of operation

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to take revenge of any, sectarian groups, which is,

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this is good to start with.

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However, this needs to be more, more of a structured there

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that, that there should be in a place,

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a structured mechanism.

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So justice does not mean for fully forgiving

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or a full amnesty.

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There needs to have

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or to, to kind of get help from these organizations

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that have documented these violations.

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And now, in terms of the new structures, still actually,

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to be honest, the negotiations are still,

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Um, still happening.

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Now, while I'm speaking to you now, there is many challenges

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that, that DDR programs that should be in place,

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for example, for these armed functions.

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There's, there should to, there should be an addressing of

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how the transition from military to politically acted.

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And we have seen from the literature on how

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to end a protracted, conflict that sometimes it ends

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with negotiated settlements where previous regional actors

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that have been involved in this conflict,

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like still secure their interest.

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And there's another way like full rebel victory

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where we are leading a more of an interim military rule.

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Now, however, the another challenge that kind

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of awaits Syrians transition to, to a state, to a full kind

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of, a state is that the, there is fragmentations

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among Syrian opposition.

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So we have a little of like the coalition, we have,

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the negotiations, we have a more of a also a committee to,

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to rewrite the, the con the Syrian constitution.

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But however, this has been, these kind of,

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international processes have been hap

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like they were in place before the fall of Assad.

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Now we have a full fall of Assad.

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So these kind of, internationally led, processes

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should transform itself to something new.

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Uh, we cannot talk, talk about now, I think 2, 2, 5 4

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is no longer, sound correct for, for,

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for this era, for this phase.

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So the international community needs to come

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with a new process that kind of represent

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or mark this shift in influence on,

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on the geopolitical level

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and also, the national level concerning Syria.

Shifts in Regional Dynamics Following Syria's Turmoil

00:00:00 - I think it kind of impact the re the, the, the, the regional dynamics to, to, to a lot of extent. So what we have seen before with the start, with the, with the Arab uprisings or Arab Springs, we can see like a more of, unfolded, certain regional dynamics and certain involvements of regional actors. What, what, what marks the, the, the operations, the, the, the offensive that started on the 27th of, of November. I think Marks shifts in influence in terms of these regional actors that have kind of,

00:00:34 - as the main allies for, for the last 14 years at least. So the fall of Baal Asad regime would mark a significant turning point for regional geopolitics. I think to start with the, the, the main player players, in the, in the, in the Syrian conflicts before the fall of, of of, of Baal Asad. We have Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the us however, to start with the main two players that pin an ally to us, that I think for Iran

00:01:04 - in probing up Assads and, and, and, and kind of, try to play with the, with, with him, normalizing him with the, with the Arab, with certain a nations that would face diminished influence. And I think what's, what's like, while we are kind of focusing on what happens in Syria, we, we should not forget the 7th of October. And it's kind of, the way that its impact on, on shifting these kind of alliances

Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics in Syria

00:01:33 - And I think Israel here became a player where it, it, it's attacks on Hezbollah, it's attacks also on certain Iranians, security positions in Syria helped, the, the, the, the, the, the armed factions from the oppositions to, to choose the time where, where they can contain, Iranian influence. And I think Russia also kind of, with, with the war on Ukraine, that it had very much limited

00:02:04 - So that was, there is a shift in dynamics. And I think the realist kinda, theoretical framework of the Syrian conflict does not tell us a lot about what these shifts are, that, that now at stake. At at stakes we have Russia, Turkey, and the US who have like direct influence on the grounds, like the US is in northeast Syria. We have also Turkey who has banks of these militias, for the last 13 years in northern Syria.

00:02:37 - and we have also Russia that wants, sorry, to, to, to, to kind of secure its, its its interest in, in the coastal area. Now, of course, Israel became a player, as we have seen in the last 2, 2, 3 days, that Israel wants to protect its, the southern, to, to create a buffer zone in southern, in southern Syria. And that the, like, the scary thing that Israel continue these attacks on southern parts of Syria, were kind

Navigating Power Vacuums and Accountability in Post-Assad Syria

00:03:07 - So there are, there is potential rivalries, there is a power vacuum in Syria, which might intensify competitions among external actors while we are in the face of full victories. But of course, these countries are now still continuing negotiating set and settlements to secure their interest in Syria while Syrians and even international kind of media have focused on the fall of Asad, which kind

00:03:39 - that Asad array is, is done. However, I think there's some kind of vacuum here. And there was, there is a gap that needs to be filled that while it's very kind of joyful moments that we know finally the, the, the, the fate of these forcefully, disappeared. There should have been certain cooperation with Syrian led organizations on that have been working

00:04:10 - on documenting violations of Assad against these Bhutanese. And I think there should be certain cooperation between, between those who are leading the op, the of the armed, of the, the this kind of armed operations on the ground and these kind of civil society organizations, that's Syrian led and also European led. And I think here that needs to kind of address the mechanisms for accountability,

Challenges and Opportunities for Transitional Justice in Syria

00:04:40 - and evidence, preservation. we need, there are certain challenges which kind of, that certain such as fragmentation and functionalism and factionism, and we need an inclusive governance and, and, and reconstructions. However, I think it's now the moment for the transitional justice mechanism to take, to take its role, which is not only to be led by armed factions in on the ground, but to also by civil society organization

00:05:13 - But so far have been presented or like by, by the arm factions such as the HTS or other, arm factions in their, in their statements that they are not leading this kind of operation to take revenge of any, sectarian groups, which is, this is good to start with. However, this needs to be more, more of a structured there that, that there should be in a place, a structured mechanism. So justice does not mean for fully forgiving

00:05:43 - There needs to have or to, to kind of get help from these organizations that have documented these violations. And now, in terms of the new structures, still actually, to be honest, the negotiations are still, still happening. Now, while I'm speaking to you now, there is many challenges that, that DDR programs that should be in place, for example, for these armed functions. There's, there should to, there should be an addressing of

Navigating Syria's Geopolitical Shifts: Towards New Transitional Processes

00:06:15 - And we have seen from the literature on how to end a protracted, conflict that sometimes it ends with negotiated settlements where previous regional actors that have been involved in this conflict, like still secure their interest. And there's another way like full rebel victory where we are leading a more of an interim military rule. Now, however, the another challenge that kind of awaits Syrians transition to, to a state, to a full kind

00:06:46 - among Syrian opposition. So we have a little of like the coalition, we have, the negotiations, we have a more of a also a committee to, to rewrite the, the con the Syrian constitution. But however, this has been, these kind of, international processes have been hap like they were in place before the fall of Assad. Now we have a full fall of Assad. So these kind of, internationally led, processes should transform itself to something new.

00:07:39 - is no longer, sound correct for, for, for this era, for this phase. So the international community needs to come with a new process that kind of represent or mark this shift in influence on, on the geopolitical level and also, the national level concerning Syria.

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