Syria Crisis: Power Dynamics, Justice, and Reconstruction in Post-Assad Syria

View more insights in Analysis - Politics and Governance

View more figures from Lancaster University

View the page of Rahaf Aldoughli

Next in Analysis

Syria Crisis: Al-Jolani’s Leadership

Haian Dukhan | Teesside University

France in Political Turmoil

Rainbow Murray | Queen Mary University of London

How will Assad’s fall impact Middle East geopolitics, justice for victims, and Syria’s stability?

Image courtesy of interviewee. December 9, 2024

Generating Workspace...

Export as PDF

This video discusses the significant geopolitical shifts in the aftermath of the Syrian conflict, particularly in relation to the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The speaker emphasizes how this event could impact regional dynamics and alliances, specifically highlighting the roles of major players such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States.

Key points include:
1. **Shifts in Regional Influence**: The operations that began on November 27 signify a change in the influence of regional actors who have historically supported Assad. The fall of his regime could mark a pivotal moment for regional geopolitics.

2. **Emerging Roles of External Actors**: Israel has become a more involved player, conducting operations against Hezbollah and Iranian positions in Syria, effectively seeking to secure its borders and interests.

3. **Vacuum of Power**: The speaker notes the potential power vacuums in Syria could lead to intensified competition among external actors as they vie for influence amidst the changing circumstances.

4. **Need for Structured Transition**: While the possibility of Assad's downfall is seen as a positive development, there remain challenges. The need for structured transitional justice and cooperation with Syrian-led organizations, as well as addressing accountability for past violations, is emphasized.

5. **Fragmentation of Opposition**: The current fragmentation among Syrian opposition groups poses challenges for achieving a coherent governance structure post-Assad.

6. **Reevaluating International Processes**: This video calls for international mechanisms to evolve and adapt to the new realities in Syria, stating that existing frameworks are no longer adequate given the changing situation.

The overall message underscores the complexity of the Syrian conflict's aftermath, emphasizing the necessity for cooperation and a shift in international engagement strategies to effectively address the emerging realities on the ground.

Language:

Export as PDF

Export as PDF
Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Regional Dynamics Shift**: The video highlights the significant impact of recent conflicts, particularly the Arab uprisings, on regional dynamics in the Middle East, emphasizing that the ongoing operations since November signify shifts in the influence of regional actors like Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the U.S.

2. **Fall of Assad Regime**: The potential fall of the Assad regime in Syria is framed as a major turning point for regional geopolitics, altering the alliances and positions of regional players who have been primarily involved in the Syrian conflict for years.

3. **Role of Israel and External Actors**: Israel is identified as an emerging player in the conflict, particularly through its military actions aimed at countering Iranian influence in Syria. The narrative suggests that there is a power vacuum creating competition among external actors, including the U.S., Turkey, and Russia, to secure their interests in the region.

4. **Importance of Transitional Justice and Civil Society**: The video calls for the establishment of mechanisms for accountability and reconstruction that include cooperation with civil society organizations alongside the armed factions. It stresses that transitional justice must involve structured processes to ensure that justice is served without spawning further sectarian tensions.

5. **Challenges to Governance and Inclusion**: The video recognizes the complexities and challenges faced by the Syrian opposition and civil society concerning governance, reconstruction, and the need for inclusivity in the political process. It emphasizes the urgency of establishing a structured approach to transition following the potential fall of the Assad regime and the various ongoing negotiations.

Export as PDF
Based on the video , here are key quotes that encapsulate the main themes and ideas:

1. **Impact on Regional Dynamics**: "I think it kind of impact the re the, the, the, the regional dynamics to, to, to a lot of extent."

2. **Turning Point in Geopolitics**: "The fall of Baal Asad regime would mark a significant turning point for regional geopolitics."

3. **Main Players in the Conflict**: "We have Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the US... the main two players that pin an ally to us, that I think for Iran in probing up Assads."

4. **Effect of External Actions**: "Israel here became a player... attacks on Hezbollah... helped the armed factions from the oppositions to choose the time where, where they can contain Iranian influence."

5. **Shift in Alliances**: "I think the realist kinda, theoretical framework of the Syrian conflict does not tell us a lot about what these shifts are, that now at stake."

6. **Power Vacuum and Rivalries**: "There is potential rivalries, there is a power vacuum in Syria, which might intensify competitions among external actors."

7. **Importance of Accountability**: "There should have been certain cooperation with Syrian led organizations... to address the mechanisms for accountability and evidence preservation."

8. **Transitional Justice**: "I think it's now the moment for the transitional justice mechanism to take, to take its role... not only to be led by armed factions in on the ground, but to also by civil society organization."

9. **Need for Structured Mechanisms**: "There should be in a place, a structured mechanism. So justice does not mean for fully forgiving."

10. **Challenges Ahead**: "There are many challenges that, that DDR programs that should be in place, for example, for these armed functions."

These quotes showcase the complexities of the Syrian conflict, the roles of various regional actors, and the necessity for accountability and structured transitions in the aftermath of significant political changes.

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP=LOCAL:00:00:00.000,MPEGTS:90000

1
00:00:00.245 --> 00:00:02.805
I think it kind of impact the re the, the, the,

2
00:00:02.865 --> 00:00:05.725
the regional dynamics to, to, to a lot of extent.

3
00:00:05.905 --> 00:00:06.925
So what we have seen

4
00:00:06.985 --> 00:00:10.325
before with the start, with the, with the Arab uprisings

5
00:00:10.325 --> 00:00:13.805
or Arab Springs, we can see like a more of, unfolded,

6
00:00:13.985 --> 00:00:16.445
certain regional dynamics

7
00:00:16.445 --> 00:00:18.485
and certain involvements of regional actors.

8
00:00:18.635 --> 00:00:22.205
What, what, what marks the, the, the operations, the, the,

9
00:00:22.205 --> 00:00:25.445
the offensive that started on the 27th of, of November.

10
00:00:25.765 --> 00:00:27.925
I think Marks shifts in influence in terms

11
00:00:27.925 --> 00:00:30.685
of these regional actors that have kind of,

12
00:00:30.985 --> 00:00:34.445
had the Asad regime as their allies for, for as,

13
00:00:34.445 --> 00:00:37.445
as the main allies for, for the last 14 years at least.

14
00:00:38.105 --> 00:00:41.045
So the fall of Baal Asad regime would mark a significant

15
00:00:41.045 --> 00:00:43.205
turning point for regional geopolitics.

16
00:00:43.365 --> 00:00:47.485
I think to start with the, the, the main player players,

17
00:00:47.505 --> 00:00:49.205
in the, in the, in the Syrian conflicts

18
00:00:49.205 --> 00:00:51.605
before the fall of, of of, of Baal Asad.

19
00:00:51.605 --> 00:00:54.765
We have Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the us

20
00:00:54.765 --> 00:00:59.125
however, to start with the main two players that pin an ally

21
00:00:59.125 --> 00:01:01.285
to us, that I think for Iran

22
00:01:01.285 --> 00:01:04.005
and Russia, who have invested heavily in, in,

23
00:01:04.005 --> 00:01:06.205
in probing up Assads and, and, and,

24
00:01:06.205 --> 00:01:10.085
and kind of, try to play with the, with, with him,

25
00:01:10.085 --> 00:01:11.965
normalizing him with the, with the Arab,

26
00:01:11.965 --> 00:01:16.245
with certain a nations that would face diminished influence.

27
00:01:16.385 --> 00:01:20.685
And I think what's, what's like, while we are kind

28
00:01:20.685 --> 00:01:23.325
of focusing on what happens in Syria, we,

29
00:01:23.385 --> 00:01:25.325
we should not forget the 7th of October.

30
00:01:25.505 --> 00:01:29.525
And it's kind of, the way that its impact on,

31
00:01:29.545 --> 00:01:31.765
on shifting these kind of alliances

32
00:01:31.765 --> 00:01:33.325
that pre-exist alliances.

33
00:01:33.325 --> 00:01:38.165
And I think Israel here became a player where it,

34
00:01:38.465 --> 00:01:40.725
it, it's attacks on Hezbollah,

35
00:01:40.835 --> 00:01:43.445
it's attacks also on certain Iranians,

36
00:01:43.805 --> 00:01:47.565
security positions in Syria helped, the, the, the,

37
00:01:47.565 --> 00:01:50.405
the, the, the armed factions from the oppositions to,

38
00:01:51.025 --> 00:01:53.805
to choose the time where, where they can contain,

39
00:01:53.905 --> 00:01:55.205
Iranian influence.

40
00:01:55.265 --> 00:01:57.885
And I think Russia also kind of, with,

41
00:01:57.885 --> 00:02:01.885
with the war on Ukraine, that it had very much limited

42
00:02:02.445 --> 00:02:04.725
capacity to, to assist Assad.

43
00:02:04.785 --> 00:02:07.165
So that was, there is a shift in dynamics.

44
00:02:07.165 --> 00:02:11.165
And I think the realist kinda, theoretical

45
00:02:12.075 --> 00:02:15.245
framework of the Syrian conflict does not tell us a lot

46
00:02:15.245 --> 00:02:18.525
about what these shifts are, that, that now at stake.

47
00:02:18.545 --> 00:02:21.125
At at stakes we have Russia, Turkey,

48
00:02:21.265 --> 00:02:24.485
and the US who have like direct influence on the grounds,

49
00:02:24.485 --> 00:02:26.205
like the US is in northeast Syria.

50
00:02:26.745 --> 00:02:31.725
We have also Turkey who has banks of these militias,

51
00:02:31.745 --> 00:02:33.725
for the last 13 years in northern Syria.

52
00:02:33.905 --> 00:02:37.765
And we have also the US packing SDF in no, and,

53
00:02:37.765 --> 00:02:40.765
and we have also Russia that wants, sorry, to, to, to,

54
00:02:40.825 --> 00:02:43.925
to kind of secure its, its its interest in,

55
00:02:43.945 --> 00:02:45.085
in the coastal area.

56
00:02:45.665 --> 00:02:47.965
Now, of course, Israel became a player,

57
00:02:48.425 --> 00:02:52.645
as we have seen in the last 2, 2, 3 days, that Israel wants

58
00:02:52.665 --> 00:02:55.285
to protect its, the southern, to,

59
00:02:55.285 --> 00:02:57.845
to create a buffer zone in southern, in southern Syria.

60
00:02:57.905 --> 00:03:00.245
And that the, like, the scary thing that Israel

61
00:03:01.165 --> 00:03:04.245
continue these attacks on southern parts of Syria, were kind

62
00:03:04.245 --> 00:03:07.125
of at some point occupying southern Syria.

63
00:03:07.785 --> 00:03:10.245
So there are, there is potential rivalries,

64
00:03:10.245 --> 00:03:11.845
there is a power vacuum in Syria,

65
00:03:11.845 --> 00:03:13.525
which might intensify competitions

66
00:03:13.535 --> 00:03:16.565
among external actors while we are in the face

67
00:03:16.665 --> 00:03:18.445
of full victories.

68
00:03:18.705 --> 00:03:22.005
But of course, these countries are now still continuing

69
00:03:22.195 --> 00:03:23.765
negotiating set

70
00:03:23.765 --> 00:03:26.765
and settlements to secure their interest in Syria

71
00:03:27.455 --> 00:03:28.525
while Syrians

72
00:03:28.585 --> 00:03:30.565
and even international kind

73
00:03:30.565 --> 00:03:35.445
of media have focused on the fall of Asad, which kind

74
00:03:35.445 --> 00:03:39.485
of bring us all certain joy, of course,

75
00:03:39.515 --> 00:03:41.485
that Asad array is, is done.

76
00:03:41.595 --> 00:03:45.365
However, I think there's some kind of vacuum here.

77
00:03:45.545 --> 00:03:49.085
And there was, there is a gap that needs to be filled that

78
00:03:49.855 --> 00:03:54.165
while it's very kind of joyful moments that we know finally

79
00:03:55.225 --> 00:03:58.525
the, the, the, the fate of these forcefully,

80
00:03:59.105 --> 00:04:00.445
disappeared.

81
00:04:00.935 --> 00:04:03.245
There should have been certain cooperation

82
00:04:03.395 --> 00:04:07.685
with Syrian led organizations on that have been working

83
00:04:07.745 --> 00:04:10.325
for the last 10, for the last 13 years on,

84
00:04:10.825 --> 00:04:14.885
on documenting violations of Assad against these Bhutanese.

85
00:04:14.905 --> 00:04:18.885
And I think there should be certain cooperation between,

86
00:04:18.885 --> 00:04:21.645
between those who are leading the op, the of the armed,

87
00:04:21.665 --> 00:04:24.445
of the, the this kind of armed operations on the ground

88
00:04:24.505 --> 00:04:27.605
and these kind of civil society organizations,

89
00:04:27.705 --> 00:04:30.165
that's Syrian led and also European led.

90
00:04:30.745 --> 00:04:33.485
And I think here that needs to kind

91
00:04:33.485 --> 00:04:38.445
of address the mechanisms for accountability,

92
00:04:38.625 --> 00:04:40.645
the, the documenting, and,

93
00:04:40.705 --> 00:04:42.565
and evidence, preservation.

94
00:04:43.345 --> 00:04:46.925
Uh, we need, there are certain challenges which kind of,

95
00:04:46.995 --> 00:04:50.365
that certain such as fragmentation and functionalism

96
00:04:50.365 --> 00:04:52.845
and factionism, and we need an inclusive governance and,

97
00:04:52.845 --> 00:04:54.045
and, and reconstructions.

98
00:04:54.045 --> 00:04:56.805
However, I think it's now the moment

99
00:04:57.025 --> 00:04:59.565
for the transitional justice mechanism to take,

100
00:04:59.905 --> 00:05:03.805
to take its role, which is not only to be led by

101
00:05:04.335 --> 00:05:06.365
armed factions in on the ground,

102
00:05:06.465 --> 00:05:09.445
but to also by civil society organization

103
00:05:09.595 --> 00:05:13.205
that are Syrian led or, internationally led.

104
00:05:13.425 --> 00:05:15.685
But so far have been presented

105
00:05:15.745 --> 00:05:19.565
or like by, by the arm factions such as the HTS

106
00:05:20.025 --> 00:05:23.005
or other, arm factions in their, in their statements

107
00:05:23.005 --> 00:05:26.125
that they are not leading this kind of operation

108
00:05:26.145 --> 00:05:29.205
to take revenge of any, sectarian groups, which is,

109
00:05:29.315 --> 00:05:30.685
this is good to start with.

110
00:05:30.685 --> 00:05:34.725
However, this needs to be more, more of a structured there

111
00:05:34.725 --> 00:05:36.285
that, that there should be in a place,

112
00:05:36.405 --> 00:05:37.645
a structured mechanism.

113
00:05:37.905 --> 00:05:41.045
So justice does not mean for fully forgiving

114
00:05:41.665 --> 00:05:42.885
or a full amnesty.

115
00:05:43.135 --> 00:05:44.365
There needs to have

116
00:05:44.625 --> 00:05:47.885
or to, to kind of get help from these organizations

117
00:05:47.885 --> 00:05:50.045
that have documented these violations.

118
00:05:50.105 --> 00:05:53.605
And now, in terms of the new structures, still actually,

119
00:05:53.605 --> 00:05:56.685
to be honest, the negotiations are still,

120
00:05:57.145 --> 00:05:59.605
Um, still happening.

121
00:05:59.745 --> 00:06:04.285
Now, while I'm speaking to you now, there is many challenges

122
00:06:04.285 --> 00:06:07.085
that, that DDR programs that should be in place,

123
00:06:07.145 --> 00:06:08.725
for example, for these armed functions.

124
00:06:08.725 --> 00:06:11.765
There's, there should to, there should be an addressing of

125
00:06:11.785 --> 00:06:14.885
how the transition from military to politically acted.

126
00:06:15.505 --> 00:06:17.845
And we have seen from the literature on how

127
00:06:17.845 --> 00:06:22.085
to end a protracted, conflict that sometimes it ends

128
00:06:22.085 --> 00:06:25.885
with negotiated settlements where previous regional actors

129
00:06:25.885 --> 00:06:27.685
that have been involved in this conflict,

130
00:06:27.685 --> 00:06:29.405
like still secure their interest.

131
00:06:29.405 --> 00:06:31.845
And there's another way like full rebel victory

132
00:06:32.415 --> 00:06:35.965
where we are leading a more of an interim military rule.

133
00:06:36.705 --> 00:06:39.445
Now, however, the another challenge that kind

134
00:06:39.445 --> 00:06:43.245
of awaits Syrians transition to, to a state, to a full kind

135
00:06:43.245 --> 00:06:46.605
of, a state is that the, there is fragmentations

136
00:06:46.815 --> 00:06:48.525
among Syrian opposition.

137
00:06:48.545 --> 00:06:51.565
So we have a little of like the coalition, we have,

138
00:06:51.565 --> 00:06:55.125
the negotiations, we have a more of a also a committee to,

139
00:06:55.145 --> 00:06:57.925
to rewrite the, the con the Syrian constitution.

140
00:06:57.925 --> 00:07:00.485
But however, this has been, these kind of,

141
00:07:00.485 --> 00:07:02.445
international processes have been hap

142
00:07:03.075 --> 00:07:05.405
like they were in place before the fall of Assad.

143
00:07:05.465 --> 00:07:06.805
Now we have a full fall of Assad.

144
00:07:06.825 --> 00:07:11.325
So these kind of, internationally led, processes

145
00:07:12.105 --> 00:07:14.765
should transform itself to something new.

146
00:07:15.505 --> 00:07:19.725
Uh, we cannot talk, talk about now, I think 2, 2, 5 4

147
00:07:20.265 --> 00:07:25.205
is no longer, sound correct for, for,

148
00:07:25.225 --> 00:07:26.885
for this era, for this phase.

149
00:07:27.345 --> 00:07:31.305
So the international community needs to come

150
00:07:31.305 --> 00:07:33.985
with a new process that kind of represent

151
00:07:34.205 --> 00:07:37.425
or mark this shift in influence on,

152
00:07:37.525 --> 00:07:38.865
on the geopolitical level

153
00:07:39.085 --> 00:07:42.545
and also, the national level concerning Syria.

Shifts in Regional Dynamics Following Syria's Turmoil

00:00:00 - I think it kind of impact the re the, the, the, the regional dynamics to, to, to a lot of extent. So what we have seen before with the start, with the, with the Arab uprisings or Arab Springs, we can see like a more of, unfolded, certain regional dynamics and certain involvements of regional actors. What, what, what marks the, the, the operations, the, the, the offensive that started on the 27th of, of November. I think Marks shifts in influence in terms of these regional actors that have kind of,

00:00:34 - as the main allies for, for the last 14 years at least. So the fall of Baal Asad regime would mark a significant turning point for regional geopolitics. I think to start with the, the, the main player players, in the, in the, in the Syrian conflicts before the fall of, of of, of Baal Asad. We have Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the us however, to start with the main two players that pin an ally to us, that I think for Iran

00:01:04 - in probing up Assads and, and, and, and kind of, try to play with the, with, with him, normalizing him with the, with the Arab, with certain a nations that would face diminished influence. And I think what's, what's like, while we are kind of focusing on what happens in Syria, we, we should not forget the 7th of October. And it's kind of, the way that its impact on, on shifting these kind of alliances

Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics in Syria

00:01:33 - And I think Israel here became a player where it, it, it's attacks on Hezbollah, it's attacks also on certain Iranians, security positions in Syria helped, the, the, the, the, the, the armed factions from the oppositions to, to choose the time where, where they can contain, Iranian influence. And I think Russia also kind of, with, with the war on Ukraine, that it had very much limited

00:02:04 - So that was, there is a shift in dynamics. And I think the realist kinda, theoretical framework of the Syrian conflict does not tell us a lot about what these shifts are, that, that now at stake. At at stakes we have Russia, Turkey, and the US who have like direct influence on the grounds, like the US is in northeast Syria. We have also Turkey who has banks of these militias, for the last 13 years in northern Syria.

00:02:37 - and we have also Russia that wants, sorry, to, to, to, to kind of secure its, its its interest in, in the coastal area. Now, of course, Israel became a player, as we have seen in the last 2, 2, 3 days, that Israel wants to protect its, the southern, to, to create a buffer zone in southern, in southern Syria. And that the, like, the scary thing that Israel continue these attacks on southern parts of Syria, were kind

Navigating Power Vacuums and Accountability in Post-Assad Syria

00:03:07 - So there are, there is potential rivalries, there is a power vacuum in Syria, which might intensify competitions among external actors while we are in the face of full victories. But of course, these countries are now still continuing negotiating set and settlements to secure their interest in Syria while Syrians and even international kind of media have focused on the fall of Asad, which kind

00:03:39 - that Asad array is, is done. However, I think there's some kind of vacuum here. And there was, there is a gap that needs to be filled that while it's very kind of joyful moments that we know finally the, the, the, the fate of these forcefully, disappeared. There should have been certain cooperation with Syrian led organizations on that have been working

00:04:10 - on documenting violations of Assad against these Bhutanese. And I think there should be certain cooperation between, between those who are leading the op, the of the armed, of the, the this kind of armed operations on the ground and these kind of civil society organizations, that's Syrian led and also European led. And I think here that needs to kind of address the mechanisms for accountability,

Challenges and Opportunities for Transitional Justice in Syria

00:04:40 - and evidence, preservation. we need, there are certain challenges which kind of, that certain such as fragmentation and functionalism and factionism, and we need an inclusive governance and, and, and reconstructions. However, I think it's now the moment for the transitional justice mechanism to take, to take its role, which is not only to be led by armed factions in on the ground, but to also by civil society organization

00:05:13 - But so far have been presented or like by, by the arm factions such as the HTS or other, arm factions in their, in their statements that they are not leading this kind of operation to take revenge of any, sectarian groups, which is, this is good to start with. However, this needs to be more, more of a structured there that, that there should be in a place, a structured mechanism. So justice does not mean for fully forgiving

00:05:43 - There needs to have or to, to kind of get help from these organizations that have documented these violations. And now, in terms of the new structures, still actually, to be honest, the negotiations are still, still happening. Now, while I'm speaking to you now, there is many challenges that, that DDR programs that should be in place, for example, for these armed functions. There's, there should to, there should be an addressing of

Navigating Syria's Geopolitical Shifts: Towards New Transitional Processes

00:06:15 - And we have seen from the literature on how to end a protracted, conflict that sometimes it ends with negotiated settlements where previous regional actors that have been involved in this conflict, like still secure their interest. And there's another way like full rebel victory where we are leading a more of an interim military rule. Now, however, the another challenge that kind of awaits Syrians transition to, to a state, to a full kind

00:06:46 - among Syrian opposition. So we have a little of like the coalition, we have, the negotiations, we have a more of a also a committee to, to rewrite the, the con the Syrian constitution. But however, this has been, these kind of, international processes have been hap like they were in place before the fall of Assad. Now we have a full fall of Assad. So these kind of, internationally led, processes should transform itself to something new.

00:07:39 - is no longer, sound correct for, for, for this era, for this phase. So the international community needs to come with a new process that kind of represent or mark this shift in influence on, on the geopolitical level and also, the national level concerning Syria.

Faculti AI can make mistakes

Research

Policy

Analysis