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Weather deviations linked to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States

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How do weather extremes influence undocumented migration between Mexico and the United States, and what are the impacts on the decisions of these migrants to return?

Image courtesy of interviewee. December 16, 2024

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This video discusses the significant migration flow from Mexico to the United States, particularly how environmental factors, such as extreme weather events like droughts, affect this migration. Over the past 50 years, research indicates that droughts in agricultural communities—historically sending out migrants—lead to an increase in undocumented migration to the U.S. A study focusing on survey data from 50,000 individuals in 84 rural communities highlights that weather shocks impact migration decisions. When these communities experience drought during key agricultural periods (especially influencing corn production), the likelihood of migration increases, whereas those already in the U.S. may be less inclined to return if their home communities face ongoing weather extremes.

The study also emphasizes that while economic opportunities and a culture of migration significantly influence undocumented migration, weather conditions play a crucial role in exacerbating existing challenges. Successful past migration stories reinforce the perception that migrating is a pathway to success. Additionally, the presence of irrigation systems in communities can mitigate migration pressures by giving residents better control over their water sources and crop yields, suggesting that investments in irrigation could help reduce migration driven by environmental factors.

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The migration flow between Mexico

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and the United States is one

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of the largest sustained international flows in the world.

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And we've been studying this flow for many years, decades,

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but we don't really understand

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how environmental factors like extreme weather have

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contributed to this flow historically.

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So we really wanted to understand, if we look backwards

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to the last 50 years, do we see any signals in the sense

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that, do we see that when extreme weather events happen,

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is there increased migration out

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of migrant standing communities to the United States?

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So that was the motivation for us. Thank

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You for that. So do we,

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I mean, let's ask you the kickoff question.

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Number one, how do weather patterns influence

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undocumented migration?

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So what we find here is

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that when we look at agricultural communities in Mexico,

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and these are historically migrant sending regions anyway,

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when these communities experience droughts

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so extremely low rainfall, we actually see an increased,

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rate of undocumented migration to the United States.

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There's a lot of work on this migration flow between Mexico

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and the United States, but what, what

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what differentiates our study is that we re, we, rely on

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a large quantitative survey that has been ongoing

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for over 30 years now.

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So this gives us information from about, you know,

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160,000 individuals, who have been cross, some

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of whom have been crossing the border over the last,

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you know, 40, 50 years.

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So for this study,

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we actually did not take the entire survey data,

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but we wanted to focus on communities that are

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dependent on rainfall for their livelihoods.

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So that brought our sample down

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to about 50,000 individuals in 84

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rural communities in Mexico.

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And we actually asked two questions.

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We wanted to understand first,

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would these people become more likely

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to migrate if their communities

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experience the weather shock?

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And second, would the people

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who are already in the United States,

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the undocumented migrants be less tempted

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or less willing to return if their communities continue

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to experience these weather shocks?

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What makes our study unique is that there's lots of ways

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of studying migration between two countries.

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And in fact, people can use, you know, census data

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between Mexico and the United States to understand

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how many people are leaving.

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But the US, does not actually record people

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who return back to their country.

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So when, when you leave United States,

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there's actually no stamp on your passport

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or nothing that indicates that you've left.

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It's really hard to measure people who are leaving.

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What our data allow us

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to do is actually look at when people come

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and when people leave, because these are data collected

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mostly in Mexico, and these data record the entire

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life history of a person.

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So once we've met you, we ask you about

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what you've been doing since you've become an adult.

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So first of all, the data differentiates our study

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and our focus on both migration and return.

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And second, there are lots of things that are happening

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between these two, two countries over the last,

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if you think about the last kind of several decades,

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you know, NAFTA was signed, Mexico became,

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a richer country.

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Over time, several economic shocks hit both countries.

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So we wanna understand the impact of weather

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independently from these other factors.

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So what we did in our statistical models is we wanted

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to account for both the region and time.

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And actually what we're observing is even when you account

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for everything that you can think of,

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you still observe these weather impacts.

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So if anything, our methods are quite stringent and rigid.

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And I would say

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what we're observing is probably a lower bound

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of what's going on between the two countries.

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Here we're actually, the reason we are focusing on,

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rural agricultural communities is we have a very specific

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mechanism in mind.

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So we know, that these communities have at least half

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of their workforce in agriculture.

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So it's a very high level of dependency.

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We also know that these communities are growing

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a very specific crop.

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So corn is the most important crop

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and many households in these communities are growing

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for subsistence and the market as well.

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So here we can pretty safely say that the,

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when weather extremes happen, they impact people

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because they reduce the income that's available to them.

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And when we're measuring weather,

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actually we're not just looking at any kind

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of rainfall deviation, we actually wanna capture

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the extremes that happen

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during the sensitive months for corn.

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So we're, trying to capture a very specific channel

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through which weather impacts migration.

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And again, what we're observing actually, you know,

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reinforces this assumption that we have, we see

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that it's not any weather extreme that leads

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to undocumented migration.

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So anytime in the year does not really matter the same

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as the months that are really sensitive for corn.

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And it's only kind of the droughts

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that are happening in these years

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that impact the likelihood of migration.

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Now, when it comes to return,

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the return migration is actually a lot more sensitive

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to weather extremes for undocumented migration,

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it's only the droughts that matter.

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But once people are in the US, we see

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that they pay specific attention

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to any other extreme like floods as well as droughts.

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So anything that is off the normal

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actually makes them stay longer in the United States.

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That's interesting noka,

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but what role do agricultural conditions in o origin

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communities play in undocumented migration trends?

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Um, so undocumented migration is not only about weather,

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and we know this not from our study only,

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but from decades of work

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that have come out, over the years.

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So migration is about lack of economic opportunities first

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and foremost, but it's also about, a culture

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of migration that develops in these communities over time.

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So once a lot of people start migrating from your community,

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it becomes the thing to do for young people.

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So in order to be seen entrepreneurial, in order

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to be seen worthy individuals, many people are tempted

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to migrate because a lot of people

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before them have migrated.

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Successful ones have come up

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and they have basic, basically reinforced this narrative

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that migration is a way to achieve success and wealth.

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And unfortunately, during field work in Mexico, we saw

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that a lot of people who did not have these experiences

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whose migration were not migration attempts were not

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successful or who came to the US

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and could not raise enough money,

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they basically hide these stories

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and they don't share it with other people.

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And that, again, reinforces the idea is

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that migration is a path to success.

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So there are these components that are already happening.

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Um, and in our study we're able to actually measure some

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of these ideas because we know

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how many people have migrated in a community

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and there's a lot of variation across communities.

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Like some communities have 10% of their population

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with migration experience.

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There are other communities with 60%

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of the young people have migrated.

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And we actually see that this prevalence

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of migration plays a huge role as does kind of economic,

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cycles over time.

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Migration is one of the major issues of hard time

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and climate change is becoming another main issue.

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What we see in the study is

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that these two things are connected.

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So if we wanna address migration,

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we wanna address the problems

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that are, that people are facing.

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And some of these problems are created by weather extremes.

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There are actually things that we can do

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for these communities that can break the cycle of migration

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and remaining stranded in the United States

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because you can't raise enough money or

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because there's no hope if you go back to your community.

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In our study we see that when communities have irrigation,

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which means that they have control over water sources,

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that actually changes this dynamic.

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We don't see the same migration response

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and same delaying

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of return when people have irrigation

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systems in their community.

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So that's a little thing

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to invest in irrigation in these communities,

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but it does make a difference in terms

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of whether people are tempted to migrate

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or tempted to stay for longer

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and longer in their destination.

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