Floods, droughts, and environmental circumscription in early state development

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What explains the origins and survival of the first states around 5000 years ago? Ola Olsson discusses the role of weather-related productivity shocks for early state development in ancient Egypt.

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What explains the origins and survival of the first states around 5000 years ago? Ola Olsson discusses the role of weather-related productivity shocks for early state development in ancient Egypt.

Image courtesy of interviewee. November 7, 2024

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This video discusses the relationship between early state formation, agriculture, and climate change, focusing especially on ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia as prime examples of early civilizations. The speaker emphasizes how agricultural productivity, influenced by the flooding of the Nile and other climate factors, was crucial for the development of these societies. The predictability of Nile floods contributed to a stable agricultural environment but also made the population less mobile, thus enabling rulers to impose taxes and control governance more effectively.

This video explores the consequences of climate variability, particularly droughts, which can lead to political instability and societal upheaval, as evidenced by historical periods of disintegration in Egypt. It mentions the importance of reliable climate data from various sources, including stalagmites and stalactites, to study these patterns. The speaker also draws parallels between ancient civilizations and contemporary issues, such as migration driven by climate change in modern Africa, suggesting that lessons from the past can inform our understanding of current climate challenges.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Interest in Early States and Agriculture**: The author has a long-standing interest in early state formation and how agricultural production influenced the development of these societies, particularly in the convideo of climate change.

2. **Role of the Nile in Ancient Egypt**: The flooding of the Nile, dependent on monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands, was crucial for agriculture and the rise of advanced civilizations like ancient Egypt, leading to high population density and stability in resource flow.

3. **Environmental Circumscription**: The fertile land along the Nile created a scenario where people had limited options to leave, resulting in a society that was easier to control and tax, contrasting with regions where populations could escape state control more easily.

4. **Impact of Climate Variability on Political Stability**: The study examines the effects of Nile flood variability on political stability in Egypt, noting that both too much and too little flooding can be disruptive, with severe droughts leading to political turmoil and state collapse.

5. **Methodology and Data Used for Analysis**: The author discusses using paleoclimatic data, such as isotopic compositions from stalagmites, to analyze historical rainfall patterns and their correlations with political events, contributing to a broader understanding of the dynamics of early civilizations.

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Here are some key quotes and concepts from the video you :

1. **Interest in Early States and Agriculture**:
- "I've had a longstanding interest in particularly these early states, and also the link to their productive methods, agriculture and how agriculture production actually impacted on the formation and development of early states."

2. **Climate Change as a Historical Driver**:
- "There’s a particular interesting variation in terms of climate change, which has just been, of course, a driving factor historically throughout all periods."

3. **Significance of Mesopotamia and Egypt**:
- "I'm also particularly interested in Mesopotamia, in Egypt, which, I think are the prime examples of early civilization emerging."

4. **Importance of Nile Floods**:
- "Everyone knows that the Nile floods were essential for the agriculture way of life in Egypt."

5. **Environmental Circumscription**:
- "Egypt, it's the archetypical society for what we call environmental circumscription, incredibly fertile Nile shores, but then a hinterland, often that was very dry and unproductive."

6. **Population Control through Taxation**:
- "If a ruler can control such a population, they simply have nowhere to go, and it's easier than to tax them, and they will accept taxes because the exit option is simply not there."

7. **Impact of Drought on Political Stability**:
- "The worst situation is actually drought periods... in periods of extreme droughts, then, the state is in turmoil."

8. **Indicators of Political Instability**:
- "The main indicator is political instability in the shape of a Pharaoh or ruler changes. So the more changes there are during a period, that's our indicator of instability."

9. **Correlation of Climate and Construction Activities**:
- "We note that it also seems to be more common during moderate Nile flood years."

10. **Migration and Climate Change**:
- "Part of that migration flows are actually driven by climate change, and they want to get to the core, which is not the Nile shores, but Europe."

These quotes highlight the relationship between environmental factors, agricultural productivity, state formation, and political stability, emphasizing the significant impact of climate variability on early civilizations.

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP=LOCAL:00:00:00.000,MPEGTS:90000

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I've had a longstanding interest in particularly these

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early states,

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and also the link to, their productive methods,

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agriculture and

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how agriculture production actually impacted on the

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formation and development of early states.

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So that's the key.

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And then of course, within that context,

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there's a particular interesting variation in terms

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of climate change, which has just been, of course,

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a driving factor historically throughout all periods,

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but which is also, of course, incredibly relevant today.

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Uh, when we think about

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how climate change affects societies.

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Uh, apart from that, I'm also particularly interested in,

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in Mesopotamia, in Egypt, which,

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I think are the prime examples of early what we,

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what we call typically call civilization emerging.

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Uh, it's the earliest cases of that.

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And there are many things that we can learn,

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from those two cases.

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In this case, it's just ancient Egypt, of course,

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but in other words, I've also looked at.

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But the context is certainly

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that these are first vast societies to emerge from,

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from, agriculture.

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Earlier agricultural societies,

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floods were absolutely essential

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because it's, it's Nile, of course,

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we're talking about the, the, the flow of water

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through the Nile, which, is,

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and the Nile is in turn fed by the blue and the white Nile.

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What we're mainly looking at here is the Blue Nile,

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which is the, then runs from the Ethiopian Highlands.

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So the, the water that flows, in the Nile

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that come from say June,

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and then runs up to September, are results

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of the monsoon rains that rain over the Ethiopian Highlands,

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and then, spread.

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So, so the main floods

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of the Nile are completely dependent on the rains

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that fall on the Ethiopian Highlands.

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And then these were, of course, the,

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the reason why there could be such an advanced civilization,

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such a high population density, because these floods

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provided a very stable flow of, resources,

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which were totally essential for the production of wheat

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and barley along the shores of the Nile.

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And, in, and also these floods came in a

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very regular fashion.

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Sometimes they were too high, sometimes they were too low

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as, we'll come back to, I think.

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But, these were essential for the way of life along,

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along the Nile and in ancient Egypt.

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The basic thing that we want to say

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with our framework is really that,

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all early societies is also

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among hunter gatherers and so on.

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There's a natural, inclination for people to want

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to exit and get out when, when a ruler becomes too strong

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or tells you too much what you should do.

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Uh, so it's a very natural inclination, we believe,

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for people to want to leave.

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And we see that all the time in, Mong hand togethers,

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for instance, that they splinter when they get too annoyed

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with, with a leader and so on.

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But that's when, only when they can do it.

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So in some environments, you get very,

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kind of, attached to the land,

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and it's also extremely productive.

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And also the hitter land is completely unproductive.

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So it means that you're more

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or less closed in, in this very productive,

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agricultural heaven, you might say.

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Uh, but it also means that populations will grow

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and that you're stuck there to a great extent.

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Uh, so in that sense, you're circumscribed in your,

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in your possibilities.

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And that means that if a ruler can control such a

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population, they simply have nowhere to go,

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and it's easier than to tax them,

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and they will accept taxes

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because the exit option is simply not there.

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Uh, in, in other places, if you try to form states

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and the, and the ruler tries to start taxing a population,

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they can simply take off, and the ruler knows this, and

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therefore he or she will not, actually have taxes

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because they know it's pointless.

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So it le leads to another equilibrium.

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But in Egypt, it's the archetypical society,

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for what we call environmental circumscription, incredibly

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fertile Nile shores,

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but then a hinterland, often that was very dry

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and unproductive, and you could impede in certain periods.

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You could live in the hinterland and,

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and live there, without, not being taxed,

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not being under the control of the state.

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Uh, but it was very often a very harsh experience.

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So most people, still had no choice

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but to stay in the state and be taxed.

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I mean, we, everyone knows

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that the Nile floods were essential for,

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the agriculture way of life in Egypt.

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The really difficult thing is to have an accurate assessment

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of the Nile floods and also

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of the rains then in the hinterland.

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So, so there, there are

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TERs data,

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meaning measurements in the Nile itself of the levels.

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Uh, but they have pretty, I mean, the, the, the,

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the data there is not available for all years,

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and it's very just a few select years.

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So what we are looking for is a more, reliable,

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indicator of rainfall.

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One of the most, often used, kind

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of data these days on, climate,

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and rainfall historically, is what's called, it's basically

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carbon archives in and,

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or, in tapes in the form of sal mites and stalactites.

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Uh, and so if you, you look, if you drill

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through aal mite in different layers,

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you each layer has a different chemical composition,

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of oxygen 18, which is, what we are looking at.

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And that in turn is a proxy for how much rain

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fell during different periods.

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And we're using for Nile floods

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and for the proxying rainfall in Ethiopia, we're using

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data from a cave in Oman, which should pick up the kind

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of rainfall pattern over Ethiopia.

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And for understanding the hinterland rainfall, we are,

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we are looking at, we're using data from a cave in

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Israel, sore cave, which should be a good proxy

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for them rainfall in the, in the area surrounding the valve.

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So it's this interaction between these two climate variables

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that we're exploiting in the paper.

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What we're basically looking at is whether,

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is, whether Nile floods you, you could imagine of course,

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that either, the too much floods is bad,

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or the too little floods is bad,

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either could be very disruptive.

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Um, so what we're actually trying to capture is,

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an intermediate level, which as,

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which actually also turns out to be the one

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that's most beneficial when floods are fairly predictable in

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an intermediate range, the worst, pattern in terms

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of political instability,

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which is the main variable we're looking at.

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Uh, so the worst situation is, is actually drought periods.

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So, so the main indicator,

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is political instability in the, in the, in the shape

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of a Pharaoh or ruler changes.

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So the more changes there are during a period,

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that's our indicator of instability.

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And now we correlate that with these weather,

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proxies that we have.

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I mean, if, if there are extreme droughts, for instance,

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and we know that that happened, it's even depicted on,

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in, Egyptian art and so on.

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And so it seems that in periods of extreme droughts, then,

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the state, is, is in turmoil.

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We have ruler that are replaced, quickly.

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And, and it might even be the case that the state

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collapses more or less like they did in, two periods.

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The first thing intermediate period around 2,100 bc

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and then in the second period around 1650 bc

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when more or less there was no centralized Egyptian states.

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So especially drought seems to be,

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very problematic and could be to state

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disintegration simply.

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Okay, but we're actually also looking at some other

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indicators like pyramid construction intensity.

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Uh, so we have a measure of,

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Uh, the size

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and number of pyramids built, which is of course,

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a huge project, which, with massive labor requirements

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and massive resource requirements.

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And we are correlating that with,

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these climate variations.

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And we note that, it also seems to be more common

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during, moderate, nine flood years,

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as one might, have expected.

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I think this, I mean, it's been studied

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by scientists in many ways,

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and they've increasingly used this kind of data,

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paleo climatic archives,

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what economists can contribute to.

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We, I mean, we don't, we don't go

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and measure the chemical composition

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of the static mites clearly.

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Uh, so we, we just take that data,

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but then bring it into a more maybe advanced,

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statistical framework and, relate it to political theory

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and economic theory, which we're maybe more familiar with,

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some other disciplines.

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So I think this is what we can bring.

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And, and this has not been done so much actually,

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but there are many other analysis, for instance,

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on the Maya civilization and,

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and on the Mesopotamian civilization

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using somewhat similar methods.

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So I think this, our study

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is one in, in a growing field,

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I would say quickly growing right now,

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that helps us understand the rice and bowl

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and rice again, of civilizations,

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the early civilizations, which were

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very volatile, I must say.

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I mean, these, these are clearly very different times,

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but, I think, even today where we have,

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trends that are similar, we have,

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to some extent any increasing, heat in,

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in many African countries, for instance,

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which makes them difficult to live in.

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So, so in the Sahel Bells for instance, there's a tendency

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to, try the population there to migrate to Europe.

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So I think part of that migration flows are actually driven

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by, climate change.

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Uh, and they want to get to the core, which,

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is not the Nile shores, but Europe.

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So in that sense, there are, I think,

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pretty strong analogies from my account of ancient Egypt

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and climate change there to, what's going on now, the,

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the big pressure on, on Europe mainly,

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but also of course, United States from drier parts

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of the world.

Climate and Agriculture in Early Civilizations

00:00:00 - I've had a longstanding interest in particularly these early states, and also the link to, their productive methods, agriculture and how agriculture production actually impacted on the formation and development of early states. So that's the key. And then of course, within that context, there's a particular interesting variation in terms of climate change, which has just been, of course, a driving factor historically throughout all periods,

00:00:33 - when we think about how climate change affects societies. apart from that, I'm also particularly interested in, in Mesopotamia, in Egypt, which, I think are the prime examples of early what we, what we call typically call civilization emerging. it's the earliest cases of that. And there are many things that we can learn, from those two cases. In this case, it's just ancient Egypt, of course,

00:01:02 - But the context is certainly that these are first vast societies to emerge from, from, agriculture. Earlier agricultural societies, floods were absolutely essential because it's, it's Nile, of course, we're talking about the, the, the flow of water through the Nile, which, is, and the Nile is in turn fed by the blue and the white Nile. What we're mainly looking at here is the Blue Nile, which is the, then runs from the Ethiopian Highlands. So the, the water that flows, in the Nile

Dependence on Nile Floods: Climate's Role in Ancient Civilization

00:01:36 - and then runs up to September, are results of the monsoon rains that rain over the Ethiopian Highlands, and then, spread. So, so the main floods of the Nile are completely dependent on the rains that fall on the Ethiopian Highlands. And then these were, of course, the, the reason why there could be such an advanced civilization, such a high population density, because these floods provided a very stable flow of, resources,

00:02:10 - and barley along the shores of the Nile. And, in, and also these floods came in a very regular fashion. Sometimes they were too high, sometimes they were too low as, we'll come back to, I think. But, these were essential for the way of life along, along the Nile and in ancient Egypt. The basic thing that we want to say with our framework is really that, all early societies is also

00:02:39 - There's a natural, inclination for people to want to exit and get out when, when a ruler becomes too strong or tells you too much what you should do. so it's a very natural inclination, we believe, for people to want to leave. And we see that all the time in, Mong hand togethers, for instance, that they splinter when they get too annoyed with, with a leader and so on. But that's when, only when they can do it.

Environmental Circumscription and Population Control in Ancient Egypt

00:03:15 - kind of, attached to the land, and it's also extremely productive. And also the hitter land is completely unproductive. So it means that you're more or less closed in, in this very productive, agricultural heaven, you might say. but it also means that populations will grow and that you're stuck there to a great extent. so in that sense, you're circumscribed in your,

00:03:43 - And that means that if a ruler can control such a population, they simply have nowhere to go, and it's easier than to tax them, and they will accept taxes because the exit option is simply not there. in, in other places, if you try to form states and the, and the ruler tries to start taxing a population, they can simply take off, and the ruler knows this, and therefore he or she will not, actually have taxes

00:04:16 - So it le leads to another equilibrium. But in Egypt, it's the archetypical society, for what we call environmental circumscription, incredibly fertile Nile shores, but then a hinterland, often that was very dry and unproductive, and you could impede in certain periods. You could live in the hinterland and, and live there, without, not being taxed, not being under the control of the state.

Assessing Nile Floods and Climate Data

00:04:48 - So most people, still had no choice but to stay in the state and be taxed. I mean, we, everyone knows that the Nile floods were essential for, the agriculture way of life in Egypt. The really difficult thing is to have an accurate assessment of the Nile floods and also of the rains then in the hinterland. So, so there, there are TERs data,

00:05:20 - but they have pretty, I mean, the, the, the, the data there is not available for all years, and it's very just a few select years. So what we are looking for is a more, reliable, indicator of rainfall. One of the most, often used, kind of data these days on, climate, and rainfall historically, is what's called, it's basically

00:05:50 - or, in tapes in the form of sal mites and stalactites. and so if you, you look, if you drill through aal mite in different layers, you each layer has a different chemical composition, of oxygen 18, which is, what we are looking at. And that in turn is a proxy for how much rain fell during different periods. And we're using for Nile floods and for the proxying rainfall in Ethiopia, we're using

Climate Impact on Political Stability in Ancient Egypt

00:06:22 - of rainfall pattern over Ethiopia. And for understanding the hinterland rainfall, we are, we are looking at, we're using data from a cave in Israel, sore cave, which should be a good proxy for them rainfall in the, in the area surrounding the valve. So it's this interaction between these two climate variables that we're exploiting in the paper. What we're basically looking at is whether,

00:06:55 - that either, the too much floods is bad, or the too little floods is bad, either could be very disruptive. so what we're actually trying to capture is, an intermediate level, which as, which actually also turns out to be the one that's most beneficial when floods are fairly predictable in an intermediate range, the worst, pattern in terms of political instability,

00:07:25 - so the worst situation is, is actually drought periods. So, so the main indicator, is political instability in the, in the, in the shape of a Pharaoh or ruler changes. So the more changes there are during a period, that's our indicator of instability. And now we correlate that with these weather, proxies that we have. I mean, if, if there are extreme droughts, for instance,

Impact of Drought on Ancient Egyptian State Stability

00:07:58 - in, Egyptian art and so on. And so it seems that in periods of extreme droughts, then, the state, is, is in turmoil. We have ruler that are replaced, quickly. And, and it might even be the case that the state collapses more or less like they did in, two periods. The first thing intermediate period around 2,100 bc

00:08:32 - when more or less there was no centralized Egyptian states. So especially drought seems to be, very problematic and could be to state disintegration simply. Okay, but we're actually also looking at some other indicators like pyramid construction intensity. so we have a measure of, the size

00:09:00 - a huge project, which, with massive labor requirements and massive resource requirements. And we are correlating that with, these climate variations. And we note that, it also seems to be more common during, moderate, nine flood years, as one might, have expected. I think this, I mean, it's been studied by scientists in many ways, and they've increasingly used this kind of data, paleo climatic archives,

Climate Change, Civilizations, and Migration

00:09:31 - We, I mean, we don't, we don't go and measure the chemical composition of the static mites clearly. so we, we just take that data, but then bring it into a more maybe advanced, statistical framework and, relate it to political theory and economic theory, which we're maybe more familiar with, some other disciplines. So I think this is what we can bring. And, and this has not been done so much actually, but there are many other analysis, for instance,

00:10:03 - and on the Mesopotamian civilization using somewhat similar methods. So I think this, our study is one in, in a growing field, I would say quickly growing right now, that helps us understand the rice and bowl and rice again, of civilizations, the early civilizations, which were very volatile, I must say. I mean, these, these are clearly very different times, but, I think, even today where we have,

00:10:37 - to some extent any increasing, heat in, in many African countries, for instance, which makes them difficult to live in. So, so in the Sahel Bells for instance, there's a tendency to, try the population there to migrate to Europe. So I think part of that migration flows are actually driven by, climate change. and they want to get to the core, which, is not the Nile shores, but Europe.

Ancient Egypt and Modern Climate Pressures

00:11:23 - pretty strong analogies from my account of ancient Egypt and climate change there to, what's going on now, the, the big pressure on, on Europe mainly, but also of course, United States from drier parts of the world.

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