France in Political Turmoil

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France has been mired in political uncertainty since President Macron called for a snap parliamentary vote in June following a significant defeat in the European elections. This led to a fractured lower house divided into three sharply opposing factions: a weakened centrist bloc backing the president, a coalition of leftist parties, and the National Rally, headed by Marine Le Pen, which emerged as the largest party in the National Assembly.

Image courtesy of interviewee. December 6, 2024

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This video discusses the complex political situation in France, highlighting the rise of far-right politics, President Emmanuel Macron's attempt to unify the political center, and the subsequent polarization of French society. It outlines three critical time points: the long-term ascent of far-right parties, Macron's emergence in 2017 as a centrist figure, and the current fragmented parliament, which lacks a majority and is unable to work together effectively.

Macron’s government has faced increasing challenges as his popularity waned, leading to a standoff between leftist, far-right, and centrist factions that often unite only in their opposition to him. The recent snap election has resulted in a parliament divided into these three camps, making governance difficult. This video suggests that any incoming government will likely face the same issues as its predecessors due to this division.

The analysis also delves into the precarious position of leftist parties, particularly focusing on the actions of opposition leader, Marine Le Pen, and the implications of her decisions as she aims to consolidate her party's place in French politics. It highlights that while there is a fierce opposition to Macron, there is a lack of constructive collaboration among parties.

Additionally, the ongoing economic crisis in France exacerbates the political turmoil. Macron must address a spiraling deficit and meet EU budgetary guidelines without the support of the current parliament. The potential introduction of a technocratic government is mentioned as a possible interim solution, although it may lack democratic legitimacy. Ultimately, the text conveys a sense of urgency for France to resolve its political paralysis and economic challenges.

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Here are five key points extracted from the video about the current political situation in France:

1. **Fragmentation of Political Landscape**: French politics has shifted from a traditional left-right divide to a three-pole system with the far left, far right, and center. This shift has created tensions and difficulties in forming a majority in parliament, particularly as Emmanuel Macron's popularity has declined.

2. **Impasse in Parliament**: The failure of the parliament to unite or agree on key issues has culminated in a stalemate. Macron's government faces a parliament that is evenly divided among the left, far right, and center, resulting in a lack of collaboration and legislative gridlock.

3. **Opposition Politics**: Political parties have come together primarily to oppose Macron rather than to collaborate constructively. This opposition without a cohesive political alliance has resulted in a focus on partisan politics rather than addressing the common good or economic crises facing the country.

4. **Challenges for Future Governance**: Any incoming government will inherit the same problems that led to the downfall of Macron's administration due to the systemic political fragmentation and inability to build coalitions. The upcoming presidential election also complicates the political landscape, with potential candidates, like Marine Le Pen, facing legal challenges.

5. **Economic Pressures and Deficits**: France is grappling with increasing interest rates, a burgeoning budget deficit, and looming economic instability. The urgency to pass a budget by the end of the year is critical, as failure to do so would mean extending the previous year's budget, which does not account for current economic realities like inflation. This situation complicates France’s interactions with the European Union regarding fiscal responsibilities and guidelines.

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Here are some key quotes extracted from the video that encapsulate its main points:

1. "It's an almost impossible, intractable situation... to really understand the situation, you have to look at three time points."

2. "The first is the long-term rise of the far right, which has threatened the traditional French order of left-right politics."

3. "The second was the rise of Emmanuel Macron in 2017, where he tried to position himself as the guardian of the political mainstream."

4. "That created three poles: the far left, the far right, and the center."

5. "As Macron's popularity has diminished... he's found that he is now... with a parliament that cannot find a majority."

6. "None of them has a majority... the only thing that they've ever been able to unite on is their willingness to topple Macron."

7. "This was a very fragile alliance... we don't see an actual political alliance here. All we see is a politics of opposition."

8. "Lapin has chosen to plunge France into political chaos rather than supporting a budget bill that actually made concessions to her party."

9. "He could potentially build some kind of coalition going from the moderate left, the moderate right… but there's a reason why that didn't work first time around."

10. "One option is that he could introduce a technocratic government... but that would lack democratic legitimacy."

11. "If France doesn't pass a budget by the end of the year, then they're going to have to roll over the previous year's budget, which is unsustainable."

12. "If you don't address the deficit by raising taxes and cutting spending, there is simply no way that France can address this problem."

These quotes highlight the complexities of the political situation in France, the dynamics between the different political factions, and the challenges facing the government.

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It's an almost impossible, intractable situation.

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Um, and it has been for some time,

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to really understand the situation.

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Um, you have to look at three time points.

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The first is the long-term rise of the far right, which has

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threatened the traditional French order of,

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of left right politics.

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The second was the rise of Emmanuel Al in 2017,

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where he tried to, position himself as the guardian

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of the whole, of the political mainstream from center left

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to center right,

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and positioned anyone opposed

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to him as being on the extreme.

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So the extreme left and the extreme right,

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which created a sort of,

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rather than traditional left right divide,

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created three poles, the far left,

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the far right, and the center.

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Um, and that worked for a while when a large number

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of people rallied around Macron's Center.

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But as his popularity has diminished

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and, the group surrounding him has got smaller,

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he's found that he is now a,

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a marginalized center facing a increasingly polarized,

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French society.

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And then things really came

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to a crunch earlier this year when Macron called a snap

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election, which resulted in a parliament

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that is now fairly evenly divided, three ways

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between these different poles, the, the left,

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the far right, and the center.

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Um, and they can't work together.

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They can't agree on anything.

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Um, and so none of them has a majority.

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And the only thing that they've ever been able

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to unite on is their willingness to topple,

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one of the other two sides.

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Um, and so Macron now finds himself with a, a parliament

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that cannot find a majority, that cannot work together,

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that is always willing

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to put its own partisan politics ahead of the common good,

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the head of trying to unite France

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behind its economic crisis.

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And that's why the current government fell.

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And that's why I suspect any future government is also going

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to struggle for as long as it takes for France to

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reshuffle the political deck, which it cannot

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constitutionally do before next summer,

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because you have to wait a year

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between parliamentary elections.

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So any incoming government is going to be faced

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with the very same problems that cause the downfall

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of its predecessors, the left alliance, and the far right.

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Again, they, they don't agree really on anything except

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that they do not like Macron.

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Um, and so this was a very fragile alliance,

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not something that we could expect

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to see repeated on anything else.

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In fact, the left said that they would not vote

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for a sense motion introduced by the far right

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and the far right voted for a Sense sense motion introduced

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by the left, which included language

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that heavily criticized the far right.

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So, Marine dependence Party actually voted for a motion

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that was rude about them, which shows

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how willing they were to do anything to block Macron.

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Um, and therein lies the problem.

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Um, we don't see an actual political alliance here.

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All we see is a politics of opposition,

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where in this instance, people came together to oppose.

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What they can't do is, is come together to,

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work constructively.

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Um, and that is the dynamic for Macron,

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but it also poses potentially a problem for Lapin herself.

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I mean, this was a slightly controversial decision

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that she made because she has built her whole political

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career on trying to make her party mainstream.

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And to a large extent, she succeeded.

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That's why she now has such a sizable block within

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Parliament and why people now see her as a serious contender

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for the presidency.

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But part of that work has been to present her party

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as a serious party, a credible party of government.

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And what she's now done is she's chosen to

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plunge France into political chaos

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rather than supporting a budget bill

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that actually made a large number

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of concessions to her party.

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It was those lots of concessions to her party

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that in part justified the, left's decision to,

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to vote down the budget.

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And, and hence with it, the Prime Minister,

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but Lapin is, is willing to take a chance

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because she wants to run in the next presidential election.

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Um, she may very soon be ruled ineligible as a result of a,

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a legal proceedings against her.

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Um, and so anything that she can do on the meantime

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to put pressure on Macron to resign, she's going

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to do one option is to work

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with the moderate left the socialist party.

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Up until now, they have sided

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with the far left rather than with the center.

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Uh, there's some bad blood between the center

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and, and the socialists.

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Uh, Macron's burned some bridges there

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and, the,

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the left have not been keen to rebuild them.

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Uh, but over the last few months there's also been some love

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lost between the far left and the,

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and the socialists to the extent that they might now

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possibly be willing to work with Macron again,

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but that's far from guaranteed.

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If he can bring them on board,

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he could potentially build some kind

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of coalition going from the moderate left,

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the moderate right, which is pretty much where he began,

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back in 2017.

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But there's a reason why that didn't work first time around,

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and it's even less guaranteed to work a second time around,

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if he tries to rebuild from the center

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and just his loyal, loyalists.

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Uh, there are two problems with that.

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The first is that he simply doesn't have the numbers.

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The second is that, the electorate rejected

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that option at the last election.

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He certainly can't work with the far right.

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He can't work with the far left.

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He's worried about any option that would,

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reverse the pension reforms

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that he staked his whole presidency on

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introducing last year.

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So he's really going to struggle.

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Um, another option is

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that he could introduce a technocratic government.

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That's a nonpartisan one.

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Um, the advantage of that would be that,

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that it would help the country to rise

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above partisan politics and try to focus on its very real

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and deepening economic crisis.

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The downside is that any such government would lack

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democratic legitimacy.

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Um, the example

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of a technocratic government in Italy suggests

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that this would only be a very short term solution,

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but those financial problems, they're, they're real.

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Um, France's deficit is spiraling.

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Um, the interest rates being charged to France,

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are increasing as a result of the political instability

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and the, the size of the budget, which adds fuel to the fire

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because it makes the deficit more expensive to maintain.

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Um, if France doesn't pass a budget by the end of the year,

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then they're going to have to roll over the previous year's

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budget, which is unsustainable

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because for as an example, it doesn't account for inflation.

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Um, and one of the reasons why,

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Michelle Barnie's budget was so unpopular was

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because he was trying to address this deficit

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by raising taxes

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and cutting spending the two things

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that every government hates to do.

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But if you don't do it, there is simply no way

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that France can address this problem with its deficit.

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Um, and that creates a political problem as well

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with the European Union

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because France is now far outside the recommended, level

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of deficit set by the eu.

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So whilst there is no obvious solution in sight for Macal,

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he desperately needs to find one because

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otherwise France is in real trouble.

France's Political Stalemate: A Crisis of Cooperation

00:00:00 - It's an almost impossible, intractable situation. and it has been for some time, to really understand the situation. you have to look at three time points. The first is the long-term rise of the far right, which has threatened the traditional French order of, of left right politics. The second was the rise of Emmanuel Al in 2017, where he tried to, position himself as the guardian of the whole, of the political mainstream from center left

00:00:34 - and positioned anyone opposed to him as being on the extreme. So the extreme left and the extreme right, which created a sort of, rather than traditional left right divide, created three poles, the far left, the far right, and the center. and that worked for a while when a large number of people rallied around Macron's Center. But as his popularity has diminished and, the group surrounding him has got smaller, he's found that he is now a,

00:01:07 - French society. And then things really came to a crunch earlier this year when Macron called a snap election, which resulted in a parliament that is now fairly evenly divided, three ways between these different poles, the, the left, the far right, and the center. and they can't work together. They can't agree on anything. and so none of them has a majority. And the only thing that they've ever been able to unite on is their willingness to topple,

Fragmented Politics: Macron's Legislative Challenges

00:01:37 - and so Macron now finds himself with a, a parliament that cannot find a majority, that cannot work together, that is always willing to put its own partisan politics ahead of the common good, the head of trying to unite France behind its economic crisis. And that's why the current government fell. And that's why I suspect any future government is also going to struggle for as long as it takes for France to reshuffle the political deck, which it cannot

00:02:08 - because you have to wait a year between parliamentary elections. So any incoming government is going to be faced with the very same problems that cause the downfall of its predecessors, the left alliance, and the far right. Again, they, they don't agree really on anything except that they do not like Macron. and so this was a very fragile alliance, not something that we could expect to see repeated on anything else. In fact, the left said that they would not vote for a sense motion introduced by the far right

00:02:42 - by the left, which included language that heavily criticized the far right. So, Marine dependence Party actually voted for a motion that was rude about them, which shows how willing they were to do anything to block Macron. and therein lies the problem. we don't see an actual political alliance here. All we see is a politics of opposition, where in this instance, people came together to oppose.

Political Maneuvering and Chaos in France

00:03:14 - work constructively. and that is the dynamic for Macron, but it also poses potentially a problem for Lapin herself. I mean, this was a slightly controversial decision that she made because she has built her whole political career on trying to make her party mainstream. And to a large extent, she succeeded. That's why she now has such a sizable block within Parliament and why people now see her as a serious contender for the presidency.

00:03:46 - as a serious party, a credible party of government. And what she's now done is she's chosen to plunge France into political chaos rather than supporting a budget bill that actually made a large number of concessions to her party. It was those lots of concessions to her party that in part justified the, left's decision to, to vote down the budget. And, and hence with it, the Prime Minister,

00:04:17 - because she wants to run in the next presidential election. she may very soon be ruled ineligible as a result of a, a legal proceedings against her. and so anything that she can do on the meantime to put pressure on Macron to resign, she's going to do one option is to work with the moderate left the socialist party. Up until now, they have sided with the far left rather than with the center. there's some bad blood between the center and, and the socialists. Macron's burned some bridges there

Navigating France's Political Turmoil: Possibilities and Challenges for Macron

00:04:45 - the left have not been keen to rebuild them. but over the last few months there's also been some love lost between the far left and the, and the socialists to the extent that they might now possibly be willing to work with Macron again, but that's far from guaranteed. If he can bring them on board, he could potentially build some kind of coalition going from the moderate left, the moderate right, which is pretty much where he began, back in 2017. But there's a reason why that didn't work first time around,

00:05:19 - if he tries to rebuild from the center and just his loyal, loyalists. there are two problems with that. The first is that he simply doesn't have the numbers. The second is that, the electorate rejected that option at the last election. He certainly can't work with the far right. He can't work with the far left. He's worried about any option that would, reverse the pension reforms that he staked his whole presidency on introducing last year.

00:05:49 - another option is that he could introduce a technocratic government. That's a nonpartisan one. the advantage of that would be that, that it would help the country to rise above partisan politics and try to focus on its very real and deepening economic crisis. The downside is that any such government would lack democratic legitimacy. the example of a technocratic government in Italy suggests that this would only be a very short term solution, but those financial problems, they're, they're real.

France's Budget Crisis: Rising Interest Rates and Political Instability

00:06:21 - the interest rates being charged to France, are increasing as a result of the political instability and the, the size of the budget, which adds fuel to the fire because it makes the deficit more expensive to maintain. if France doesn't pass a budget by the end of the year, then they're going to have to roll over the previous year's budget, which is unsustainable because for as an example, it doesn't account for inflation. and one of the reasons why,

00:06:51 - because he was trying to address this deficit by raising taxes and cutting spending the two things that every government hates to do. But if you don't do it, there is simply no way that France can address this problem with its deficit. and that creates a political problem as well with the European Union because France is now far outside the recommended, level of deficit set by the eu. So whilst there is no obvious solution in sight for Macal,

00:07:23 - otherwise France is in real trouble.

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