France’s No-Confidence Vote

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France’s National Assembly has ousted Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s three-month-old administration in a no-confidence vote, marking the shortest premiership in the Fifth Republic’s history.

Image courtesy of interviewee. December 5, 2024

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This video discusses the surprising political maneuver of Le Pen, who voted for a motion of no confidence against her own government, joining forces with her political adversaries. This video decision came at a time when her party had significant leverage over the government, and it raises questions about her motivations. Le Pen electoral base seemingly desired the overthrow of the government, prompting her decision to align with leftist parties despite the constitutional constraints preventing general elections until the following year.

The implications of her actions could lead to instability for President Macron, as Le Pen vote could potentially force an early resignation from him, leading to a new presidential election. This video highlights the unusual situation in French politics where the current government operates without an absolute majority, making governance difficult.

The discussion also emphasizes Macron's diminished power, as he must appoint a new prime minister who can navigate a fractured political landscape. The current political deadlock is viewed as problematic, not only for France but also for the broader European Union context, given the economic pressures and other international crises at play.

Overall, the situation in France is described as complex and fraught with risks, with Le Pen political decisions signaling a potential shift that may have far-reaching effects on both domestic and international levels.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Surprising Political Shift**: Le Pen unexpected decision to vote for a motion of no confidence against the Barnier government, alongside her political rivals from the radical left party, took many by surprise. This decision undermined her previous influence over the government, where she had leveraged her vote for political bargaining.

2. **Electoral and Judicial Convideo**: Le Pen decision was influenced by her electoral base's desire for change and her escalating judicial troubles, including a potential five-year prison sentence for misusing EU funds. These factors likely led her to align with the left and support the motion to overthrow the government.

3. **Government Instability**: The government operates under a significant deadlock, with no potential for a general election until the following July, which complicates the political landscape. The current government, led by Barnier, is vulnerable, as the passage of legislation without a vote may prompt further instability.

4. **Implications of Presidential Power**: President Macron faces a complex situation, being perceived as a "lame duck" with limited influence over domestic politics. He is under pressure to quickly appoint a new prime minister after the fall of Barnier government to stabilize the political environment and avoid further turmoil.

5. **Broader Economic and International Challenges**: The political instability in France could adversely affect its economy, which is already facing high public debt. Furthermore, this situation arises amid challenging circumstances in the broader EU, including Germany's political difficulties and ongoing international crises, raising concerns about France's role and influence in global affairs.

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Here are some key quotes extracted from your video:

1. **Lupe's Political Move**: "It took almost everyone by surprise, Lupe's decision to vote, a motion of no confidence alongside her worst political enemies."

2. **Power Dynamics**: "Up until then, she had a great blackmail power... she could implicitly, indirectly dictate a few things to the government."

3. **Reasoning Behind the Vote**: "Her electoral base wanted it... she made a choice between the sort of moderation figure... and pleasing the base."

4. **Judicial Implications**: "The Paris prosecutor a month ago requested a five-year prison sentence, and also a five-year ban from public office."

5. **Consequences of Government Actions**: "There is a possibility of a motion of no confidence... the government falls, what happens now? It's everyone's guess."

6. **Historical Convideo**: "Since the beginning of the Constitution back in 1958, I think that there have been around 150 times that article 49.3 was used by governments."

7. **Macron's Situation**: "I have never known or seen a French president in such a bad situation... his room for maneuver is strictly restricted."

8. **Crisis of Authority**: "Some call him already a lame duck... it absolutely has very little say on domestic politics."

9. **Impacts on the Economy**: "The whole French situation impacts on... the state of the economy, which is quite worrying with a very high level of public debt."

10. **International Convideo**: "France is a major power in the EU... at the time, when Germany is also going through a very difficult period."

These quotes encapsulate the main themes of political maneuvering, power struggles, and implications for both domestic and international convideos highlighted in the video.

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It took almost everyone by surprise, Lupe's decision to

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vote, a motion of no confidence

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alongside her worst political enemies.

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The, the left, notably Jean-Luc Milan's, party left

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ese on the, which is a radical left party.

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So the motion was tabled by the left and Lupin voted it,

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and it took us by surprise

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because until then, up until then,

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she had a great blackmail power, I should say, over

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the bounty government, because exactly

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because of that, you know, she could implicitly,

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indirectly dictate a few things to the government.

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And she did that quite successfully until yesterday.

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And knowing that, you know,

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it would took the only lupins votes

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and, mps to, censor the government.

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So why did she do it?

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You know, she, she could have carried on for a while,

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bearing in mind that the, we are in a kind

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of deadlock situation

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because there can't be a general election before next July.

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That's the rule of the Constitution.

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There was one in, in last summer, so we need to wait

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a full year before, sort

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of dissolving the National Assembly.

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So she did that for a number of reasons.

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I think it seems that her base,

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electoral base wanted it.

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Uh, they wanted to overthrow the Barna government.

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So it seems that she, she made a choice between the sort

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of a of moderation, figure that she's,

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sort of adopted, since she's been the leader

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of the party, you know, trying to, to become more mainstream

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or be seen as more mainstream and pleasing the base.

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So she made the choice of pleasing the base.

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And secondly, there's the, the question of course

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of judicial problems.

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As you know, the Paris prosecutor a month ago requested

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a five year prison sentence,

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and also five year ban from public office.

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Uh, the, verdict will be delivered next March.

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Uh, the, the reason is sort of a misuse of EU funds,

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you know, to, to, to, to pay for,

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officials expenses.

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Uh, were working for the French Party in France

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and not in the European Parliament.

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So I think the, the stakes are very high.

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And I suppose she may have thought that by sort of,

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going along the left, overthrowing barer,

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probably that could lead ultimately to the resignation of,

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of, president Macro.

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And then there will be, of course,

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an early presidential election, and she could possibly run

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and win it before the march verdict.

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Since the beginning of the, constitution, the start

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of the Constitution back in 1958, I think that there've been

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150, around 150, times that,

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Uh, article, 49.3 was, was used by,

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by, government in place.

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So that, that's quite unusual.

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That's quite usual in a sense.

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It happened several times before,

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but that remains something quite exceptional indeed,

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because the government, in fact,

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adopts, passes legislation in a house without,

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without a vote, which is not normally

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what parliamentary democracy should be about.

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And there is a, there's a sort of a, a possible,

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backlash if you like, to that measure,

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because, the mps can retaliate,

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and they did so by tabling a motion of no confidence.

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So you see, it's risky. It's a risky move.

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Normally, it's a bit of a pledging the responsibility

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of the, of the government indirectly.

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If there's no motion of no confidence, the legislation

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is deemed approved,

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but there is a possibility of a motion of no confidence.

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And when it happens, and when the opposition is able

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to get a majority, as it was the case yesterday,

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the government falls, what happens now?

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It's everyone's guess.

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Uh, it will be, to say the least as complicated,

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as it was last time round to get to the,

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Barney government and the Barney government.

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As you may remember, it took five weeks for the governments

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to, to be formed, which is

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by French political standards, extremely long.

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'cause normally, like in the uk you know, you have a,

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you have a general election,

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and it comes up a, you know,

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a majority of some kind.

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If it's not an absolute majority in the hands of one party,

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there's a coalition, at worst.

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So here, whatever the combinations, whatever the scenarios,

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there is no absolute majority.

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And I, I think the Barney government started up

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as a minority government that's really also quite unique.

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So it took a long time.

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So now what's gonna happen, I think

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it may paradoxically take less time to get a Prime Minister,

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and I'm gonna explain why I think Macron will make sure

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that, there isn't such a, such a long period of time

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between, the, the fall of the Barney government

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and the appointment of a new one,

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because of course, you can imagine, the more

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the situation stays as it is now, the worse it gets

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for macro himself,

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because people do remember that

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the whole mess,

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the whole current mess is due to macro himself.

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Why? Because he was the man

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who decided on this snap election, an election,

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which was absolute not necessary,

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and which backfired, you know,

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he didn't get the result he expected.

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So that's why it will be a bit of a race for him

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to appoint a new, a new person,

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because with that, at the moment you have, we,

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we'll have a caretaker who is the caretaker.

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It's the incumbent. Barnet will carry on, will stay put

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until hor appoints a new prime minister.

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A caretaker can't do much.

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For instance, that budget, which was on the balance,

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will be shelved for the time being, which doesn't mean

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that's that the end of the budget.

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That's the, the, the irony is

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that the next Prime Minister could get back

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to the current budget

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and try to pass it with some amendments.

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But as for Barer, it's game over.

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You know, it will just be there as a, as a caretaker.

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I have never known

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or seen a French president in such a bad situation.

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I think, is, is sort of, his room

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for maneuver is, strictly, restricted Now,

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some call him already a lame duck, probably.

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It absolutely has

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very little say on domestic politics.

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That was never the rule of the president.

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You know, French has two to,

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to two heads on top of the executive.

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There is a president and a prime minister.

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Traditionally, the president is more in charge

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of foreign international affairs.

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That's why you see him in,

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international meetings representing France as opposed

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to the prime Minister's really in charge

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of the day-to-Day politics.

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However, given that it is the president

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that appoints a prime minister, he, he was always the boss,

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if you like, ultimately,

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and also he has the power to sack the,

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the prime Minister anytime.

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So for all these reasons, the president was always,

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of course, the, the main political force in French politics.

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Now that is gone. It, his powers have, really,

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on the wa he can't do much.

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And despite, you know, I think it's probably his only

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power now is to point the Prime Minister is quite,

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is the judge an orbiter of that.

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But he can't do anything.

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He can't just, take any name out of the H

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because he needs to make sure that whoever he appoints now,

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that person can, can lead the government.

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And that, that, that the government will not be censored

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within a month, if not weeks, which will be, of course,

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we put even more pressure on, macro on.

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So you see how complicated it is for him.

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His powers really have on the way, at the same time,

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he can't, he doesn't have the luxury anymore to a point

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as someone, he, he, you know, he find he would,

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he would find, know the, the best fit for, for the country.

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He has to have in mind the fact that will,

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that prime minister, be supported by,

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I think, I wouldn't say majority.

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There is no majority in this, in this house by, you know,

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something equivalent to the Barer situation.

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The, the Barer situation could have worked out and, and,

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and, and, and until, you know, next summer,

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had Marine Le Pen again, decided not to, to join,

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the left and, and vote the, the motion of no confidence.

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The whole French situation not only, impacts on,

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a number of, domestic things,

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and to start with the, the, the state of the economy, which,

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which is quite worrying with a very high level

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of public debt.

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The markets, of course, are following,

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very closely, all that.

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Um, but also there is also,

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political institutional deadlock.

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France is not used to that. That's very weird.

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They even talks today

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of a technocratic government, whatever that means.

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I'm not sure it's the solution,

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but it shows how desperate the situation is.

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But of course, it also impacts on,

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on the international scene, France is a major,

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power in the eu.

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And it all, it is all happening at the time when Germany

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or the big, powerhouse in, in, in the EU is also going

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through very difficult period.

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You know, there's gonna be, a new election,

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probably a new government, and it, it's,

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and all that at the time, you know,

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the Trump election in the us, the war in Ukraine,

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the situation in Gaza.

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And of course, don't expect France

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to have a very strong voice at the moment

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in international affairs with all,

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with all the domestic mess.

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And that's makes it very difficult.

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So I think design, of course,

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very bad impact on the French economy would, would be,

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would translate negatively on across the Eurozone

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and, and Europe in general.

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I think it would be bad news for everyone.

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So it's no one's interest to simply, you know,

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you can't just stand back and look at the French turmoil

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and think, well, that's their turn.

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I, I think it's quite serious.

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And that could have serious ramifications, implications for,

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for the EU and, and the world in general.

"Political Surprises and Strategic Choices: Lupe's Vote of No Confidence"

00:00:00 - It took almost everyone by surprise, Lupe's decision to vote, a motion of no confidence alongside her worst political enemies. The, the left, notably Jean-Luc Milan's, party left ese on the, which is a radical left party. So the motion was tabled by the left and Lupin voted it, and it took us by surprise because until then, up until then, she had a great blackmail power, I should say, over
00:00:36 - because of that, you know, she could implicitly, indirectly dictate a few things to the government. And she did that quite successfully until yesterday. And knowing that, you know, it would took the only lupins votes and, mps to, censor the government. So why did she do it? You know, she, she could have carried on for a while, bearing in mind that the, we are in a kind of deadlock situation because there can't be a general election before next July.
00:01:08 - There was one in, in last summer, so we need to wait a full year before, sort of dissolving the National Assembly. So she did that for a number of reasons. I think it seems that her base, electoral base wanted it. they wanted to overthrow the Barna government. So it seems that she, she made a choice between the sort of a of moderation, figure that she's,

"The Political Gamble: Navigating Judicial Challenges and Party Dynamics in French Politics"

00:01:41 - of the party, you know, trying to, to become more mainstream or be seen as more mainstream and pleasing the base. So she made the choice of pleasing the base. And secondly, there's the, the question of course of judicial problems. As you know, the Paris prosecutor a month ago requested a five year prison sentence, and also five year ban from public office. the, verdict will be delivered next March. the, the reason is sort of a misuse of EU funds,
00:02:14 - officials expenses. were working for the French Party in France and not in the European Parliament. So I think the, the stakes are very high. And I suppose she may have thought that by sort of, going along the left, overthrowing barer, probably that could lead ultimately to the resignation of, of, president Macro. And then there will be, of course, an early presidential election, and she could possibly run
00:02:46 - Since the beginning of the, constitution, the start of the Constitution back in 1958, I think that there've been 150, around 150, times that, article, 49.3 was, was used by, by, government in place. So that, that's quite unusual. That's quite usual in a sense. It happened several times before, but that remains something quite exceptional indeed,

"Political Turmoil: The Risks and Consequences of a Motion of No Confidence"

00:03:18 - adopts, passes legislation in a house without, without a vote, which is not normally what parliamentary democracy should be about. And there is a, there's a sort of a, a possible, backlash if you like, to that measure, because, the mps can retaliate, and they did so by tabling a motion of no confidence. So you see, it's risky. It's a risky move.
00:03:47 - of the, of the government indirectly. If there's no motion of no confidence, the legislation is deemed approved, but there is a possibility of a motion of no confidence. And when it happens, and when the opposition is able to get a majority, as it was the case yesterday, the government falls, what happens now? It's everyone's guess. it will be, to say the least as complicated,
00:04:20 - Barney government and the Barney government. As you may remember, it took five weeks for the governments to, to be formed, which is by French political standards, extremely long. 'cause normally, like in the uk you know, you have a, you have a general election, and it comes up a, you know, a majority of some kind. If it's not an absolute majority in the hands of one party, there's a coalition, at worst. So here, whatever the combinations, whatever the scenarios,

"Uncertainty Ahead: The Future of the Barney Government and Macron's Leadership Challenges"

00:04:52 - And I, I think the Barney government started up as a minority government that's really also quite unique. So it took a long time. So now what's gonna happen, I think it may paradoxically take less time to get a Prime Minister, and I'm gonna explain why I think Macron will make sure that, there isn't such a, such a long period of time between, the, the fall of the Barney government and the appointment of a new one, because of course, you can imagine, the more
00:05:27 - for macro himself, because people do remember that the whole mess, the whole current mess is due to macro himself. Why? Because he was the man who decided on this snap election, an election, which was absolute not necessary, and which backfired, you know, he didn't get the result he expected. So that's why it will be a bit of a race for him to appoint a new, a new person,
00:05:57 - we'll have a caretaker who is the caretaker. It's the incumbent. Barnet will carry on, will stay put until hor appoints a new prime minister. A caretaker can't do much. For instance, that budget, which was on the balance, will be shelved for the time being, which doesn't mean that's that the end of the budget. That's the, the, the irony is that the next Prime Minister could get back to the current budget and try to pass it with some amendments.

"Political Paralysis: The Diminished Power of the French Presidency"

00:06:27 - You know, it will just be there as a, as a caretaker. I have never known or seen a French president in such a bad situation. I think, is, is sort of, his room for maneuver is, strictly, restricted Now, some call him already a lame duck, probably. It absolutely has very little say on domestic politics. That was never the rule of the president.
00:06:58 - to two heads on top of the executive. There is a president and a prime minister. Traditionally, the president is more in charge of foreign international affairs. That's why you see him in, international meetings representing France as opposed to the prime Minister's really in charge of the day-to-Day politics. However, given that it is the president that appoints a prime minister, he, he was always the boss, if you like, ultimately, and also he has the power to sack the, the prime Minister anytime.
00:07:30 - of course, the, the main political force in French politics. Now that is gone. It, his powers have, really, on the wa he can't do much. And despite, you know, I think it's probably his only power now is to point the Prime Minister is quite, is the judge an orbiter of that. But he can't do anything. He can't just, take any name out of the H because he needs to make sure that whoever he appoints now,

"Political Instability and Economic Concerns: The Challenges Facing Macron's Government"

00:08:03 - And that, that, that the government will not be censored within a month, if not weeks, which will be, of course, we put even more pressure on, macro on. So you see how complicated it is for him. His powers really have on the way, at the same time, he can't, he doesn't have the luxury anymore to a point as someone, he, he, you know, he find he would, he would find, know the, the best fit for, for the country.
00:08:34 - that prime minister, be supported by, I think, I wouldn't say majority. There is no majority in this, in this house by, you know, something equivalent to the Barer situation. The, the Barer situation could have worked out and, and, and, and, and until, you know, next summer, had Marine Le Pen again, decided not to, to join, the left and, and vote the, the motion of no confidence. The whole French situation not only, impacts on,
00:09:06 - and to start with the, the, the state of the economy, which, which is quite worrying with a very high level of public debt. The markets, of course, are following, very closely, all that. but also there is also, political institutional deadlock. France is not used to that. That's very weird. They even talks today of a technocratic government, whatever that means. I'm not sure it's the solution, but it shows how desperate the situation is.

"France's Political Turmoil and Its Global Implications: A Crucial Moment for the EU"

00:09:37 - on the international scene, France is a major, power in the eu. And it all, it is all happening at the time when Germany or the big, powerhouse in, in, in the EU is also going through very difficult period. You know, there's gonna be, a new election, probably a new government, and it, it's, and all that at the time, you know, the Trump election in the us, the war in Ukraine, the situation in Gaza.
00:10:10 - to have a very strong voice at the moment in international affairs with all, with all the domestic mess. And that's makes it very difficult. So I think design, of course, very bad impact on the French economy would, would be, would translate negatively on across the Eurozone and, and Europe in general. I think it would be bad news for everyone. So it's no one's interest to simply, you know,
00:10:50 - and think, well, that's their turn. I, I think it's quite serious. And that could have serious ramifications, implications for, for the EU and, and the world in general.

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