Politics, security and foreign policy

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Rajat Ganguly analyses domestic politics in India, focusing on various types of ethnic conflicts that have shaped politics of the nation in recent times. Image courtesy of interviewee. March 28, 2024

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Rajat Ganguly analyses domestic politics in India, focusing on various types of ethnic conflicts that have shaped politics of the nation in recent times.

Image courtesy of interviewee. March 28, 2024

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This video discusses the evolution of Indian politics and foreign policy since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. It outlines key aspects such as the major achievements of Modi’s government, challenges facing Indian politics, and the complexities of identity-based conflicts, particularly ethnic conflicts, in a diverse society.

1. **Indian Politics**: The chapter highlights Modi's two terms and the concurrent issues in Indian politics, such as ethnic diversity and identity politics that lead to violent agitations.

2. **Types of Ethnic Conflicts**: The speaker categorizes Indian ethnic conflicts into four types:
- **Secessionist Conflicts**: Movements by ethnic groups in border areas seeking separation or enhanced autonomy.
- **Agitations for Statehood**: Ethnic groups within larger states seeking separate states or districts for political representation.
- **Communal Violence**: Primarily between Hindus and Muslims, but also involving sectarian violence.
- **Identity-Based Nationalism**: Movements by marginalized groups asserting their rights and resisting exploitation.

3. **Foreign Policy Evolution**: Post-1990s, India shifted from a non-aligned stance to a more pragmatic and multi-aligned foreign policy. Modi's government emphasizes relationships with major powers and the representation of the Global South. Significant achievements include:
- Strengthening relations with multiple nations, including the U.S., Russia, China, and African nations.
- India's active participation in international organizations like G20 and BRICS.

4. **Defense and Strategic Autonomy**: Modi's administration aims to increase indigenous defense manufacturing, moving away from dependency on foreign suppliers, especially amid security concerns with neighboring countries.

5. **Conclusion**: Modi's government is characterized as striving for a corruption-free administration, securing strategic autonomy in foreign relations, and aspiring for India to become a developed nation by 2047. The government's stability, public perception, and the rise of a new generation of voters supportive of Modi's vision are also highlighted. The speaker argues that despite criticisms of authoritarianism, Modi's leadership resonates with many, particularly youth, reflecting India's complex and evolving political landscape.

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Here are five key points from the video regarding Indian politics and foreign policy since 2014, particularly under Prime Minister Modi:

1. **Overview of Indian Politics Under Modi**: The chapter discusses the dynamics of Indian politics since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, emphasizing both the significant achievements of his government during his two terms and the various challenges facing Indian politics, including identity-based conflicts and ethnic diversity.

2. **Identity Conflicts in India**: The video outlines four major categories of identity conflicts within India:
- Secessionist ethnic conflicts, particularly in border regions like Jammu and Kashmir (which historically sought independence or union with Pakistan).
- Ethnic agitations for greater political recognition or statehood within the Indian Union.
- Communal violence, primarily affecting the Hindu-Muslim dynamic, along with sectarian conflicts among other religious communities.
- Identity-based political agitation manifesting as extreme nationalism, often among marginalized communities dissatisfied with state policies.

3. **Shift in Foreign Policy**: Since the early 1990s and particularly after the Cold War, India's foreign policy has transitioned from a non-alignment stance to a more pragmatic and multi-aligned approach, seeking to establish cordial relations with major global powers, including the U.S., Russia, and China, while also asserting itself as a leader of the Global South.

4. **Development of Defense Capabilities**: Modi's government is focused on transforming India's defense sector by enhancing indigenous production. This initiative aims to reduce reliance on foreign military suppliers and increase self-sufficiency, with expected growth in domestic defense manufacturing contributing to job creation and technological advancement.

5. **Focus on Strategic Autonomy**: Throughout its foreign policy, India stresses the importance of maintaining strategic autonomy. This entails building relationships without compromising national decision-making, as highlighted in India’s response to the Ukraine conflict and its approach to international alliances. India's aim is to avoid the constraints imposed by alliances, allowing it to navigate global politics independently.

These points encapsulate the complexities and significant shifts in Indian political and foreign policy landscapes, especially concerning Modi's leadership.

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Here are some key quotes from the video, which discuss Indian politics, ethnic diversity, identity conflicts, and foreign policy, particularly in the convideo of Narendra Modi's government:

1. **On the purpose of the chapter**:
- "The chapter's main, uh, purpose was to talk about Indian politics as it has emerged, uh, particularly since Mr. Modi came to power in 2014."

2. **On India's ethnic diversity**:
- "The first thing that strikes anybody is, you know, how ethnically diverse India is."
- "India is still grappling in some senses, uh, with identity politics and, you know, political agitations, sometimes violent agitations based on identity."

3. **On identity conflicts**:
- "There are broadly four categories of identity conflicts in India, uh, which, you know, one may broadly call ethnic conflict."
- "The first one is what we call secessionist ethnic conflicts."

4. **On communal violence**:
- "Thirdly, in my opinion, you have a type of ethnic conflict in India, which can be called communal violence, communal conflict."

5. **On India’s foreign policy shift**:
- "Indian foreign policy had a bit of a reorientation from the old days of non-alignment to a more realism-based foreign policy."

6. **On India's new role**:
- "India is increasingly talking on behalf of the global south."
- "India is now, you know, giving competition to China and... India is a much more of a, uh, of a safer bet compared to China."

7. **On strategic autonomy**:
- "We've always made one argument consistently ... we will not sacrifice our strategic autonomy."
- "If we don't import from outside, that means we have... total autonomy over how much we make, how we use them."

8. **On Modi's popularity and governance**:
- "Mr. Modi's performance over the last 10 years has been fantastic, and he has been able to connect with a younger generation of Indian voters."

9. **On the approach to corruption**:
- "Mr. Modi has run what can be called actually a, a corruption-free government in India, which is very unlike India."

This compilation of quotes encapsulates significant themes regarding India's political landscape, its handling of diversity and identity, evolving foreign policy, and the governance style of the current administration under Narendra Modi.

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The chapter's main, purpose was to talk about,

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Indian politics as it has emerged,

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particularly since Mr.

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Modi came to power in 2014.

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Uh, some of the, you know, some of the,

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major achievements of the government,

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both in his first term and in his second term,

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but also to highlight certain problems, within,

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Indian politics.

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Then, to also talk about the orientation

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of India's foreign policy, particularly,

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since, since the 1990s.

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You know, one can go back even before Mr.

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Modi, because, because this is a, this is a continuation

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of a trend that started around 91, 92,

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but certainly accelerated under Mr.

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Modi after 2014.

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Um, so this was, this was generally the, you know, the,

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the purpose of the chapter.

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So there's a lot to unpack there.

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Uh, when you look at, you know, India as a country, I mean,

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the first thing that strikes anybody is, you know,

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how ethnically diverse India is.

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It is a, it is a big country.

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It has multiple ethnic groups, you know, major groups,

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and if you include minor groups, you are looking at,

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you know, at least over hundreds of ethnic groups.

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Um, you are talking about, a country with multiple,

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languages.

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You know, Hindi is the official language,

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but there are also, you know, co official languages,

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at least 18 or 19, languages, over 300 dialects

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country that is, religiously in incredibly diverse.

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You know, all the religions of the world are in India,

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the majority being the Hindus,

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but then there are significant, numbers of Muslims,

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Sikhs and Christians, and Buddhists, and Janes

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and Parsis and, and and whatnot.

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So it's a mind bogglingly, complicated,

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ethnically diverse country.

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And ever since India became independent in 1947,

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ethnic violence in some form

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or the other has been with India,

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India is still grappling in some senses, with,

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with identity politics and,

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and, you know, political agitations,

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sometimes violent agitations based on identity,

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particularly around identities of, you know,

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of ethnicity, et cetera.

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So, my take on this is that there are broadly

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four categories of identity conflicts in India,

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which, you know, one may broadly call ethnic conflict.

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The first one is what we call secessionist

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Ethnic conflicts.

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These are mostly ethnic groups, which are

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located in the border areas of India, either in the India,

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northeast or in the north, very north, you know,

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state like Jamo and Kashmir,

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or in the west state, like Punjab, where from time

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to time you see agitations movements

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by ethnic groups, tribal groups, you know, groups

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that focus on their, their identity distinction, from,

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from the majority Hindus in a sense,

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who have demanded to separate from India

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to either set up their own state, their own country,

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or to join with a neighboring country.

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So in, in, in the case of Jamu

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and Kashmir, there was a movement throughout the 1990s and

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and beyond, you know, into the, into the century where

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people started talking about Jammu

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and Kashmir's Islamic identity,

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and that the, you know, that the valley part of Jammu

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and Kashmir should break away from India

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and join, with Pakistan,

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or at the very least, become, you know,

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become an Islamic state, a separate country,

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Indian state of Punjab.

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Throughout the 1980s, we saw secessionist type of violence

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demand for Stan, et cetera, which again,

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is being revived as we speak.

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Uh, now there is some, you know, some, some,

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developments happening in that space.

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And the India Northeast has always been,

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very turbulent from the point of view

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of secessionist ethnic conflict.

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Although, you know, many of these, many

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of these conflicts, particularly in Assam,

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have been now resolved, have been now tamed,

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have been, have been addressed.

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So, so that's one category of ethnic conflict.

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Then you have a second category of ethnic conflict

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where there are ethnic agitations within the

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country in certain areas.

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And the aim of these agitations is not actually

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to break away from India,

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but to seek actually a different status

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within the Indian Union.

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So many of these types of agitations are, are,

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are seen in India as movements for the creation

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of smaller states.

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So you have bigger administrative entities,

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which are multi-ethnic.

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So some of the minorities within these bigger entities

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may want to break away, not from the country,

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but to break away from the bigger entity, and,

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and create a state of their own.

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So, for example, in the northern part of West Bengal State,

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the people who live there are, are mostly ethnic Nepali

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and ethnic, you know, Bhutanese lectures, et cetera.

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And there has been a long history of, of agitation

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and struggle in the, in the northern part of West Bengal,

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that they want to create.

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They wanna break away from West Bengal.

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They wanna create a separate province

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or state called Go Kalan.

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Uh, and, and there are, you know, there are certain,

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there's a, there's, there's an argument which says that,

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you know, if we are able to create gold kalan,

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that we would be better off, rather than being a, a part

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of West Bal state.

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So you have these statehood agitations

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in many parts of India.

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Uh, oftentimes these, these agitation take the form of,

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this demand for, for, for regionalism.

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In other words, basically saying that the local suns

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of the soil, the local people should get preferential

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benefits, preferential treatment, compared to outsiders

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who have come into the region.

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So oftentimes it, it acquires that sort of flavor,

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saying that, you know, that this is about the sons

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of the soil kind of movement.

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Thirdly, in my opinion, you have a type

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of ethnic conflict in India,

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which can be called communal violence, communal conflict.

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It's mostly between Hindus and Muslims,

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but it can have alternative character as well.

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There is a, there is, you know, a little bit

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of sectarian violence within the Muslim community as well.

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Uh, there, there are examples of, sectarian

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or, or, or communal violence between Hindus

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and Sikhs, particularly in, you know, in the mid 1980s,

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with the assassination of Indian Prime Minister in the rhi.

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Uh, there was, there was campaign

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of violence against the Sikhs, et cetera.

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So communal violence is a category of ethnic conflict

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that one needs to study,

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probably very systematically in India.

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And finally, in my opinion, there is a kind of identity

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based political agitation, which is known

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as nationalism in India, which is extreme, you know,

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hardcore, communist movement,

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and with communist ideology,

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what you have here is a base which is essentially peasant

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tribal, and sometimes, you know, people who are outside,

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you know, within the Hindu community

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and outside the cost system that the so-called the elites,

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or the, or even untouchables.

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So it's a, it's a, it's, it's a platform of many

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of these dispossessed, you know, people

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who are at the bottom of the ladder socioeconomic ladder.

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Um, and this is about, you know,

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revolt against the state,

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because they see the state as essentially exploitative,

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many of these, alite agitation, you know,

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their objective is, to, to, to,

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to protest against the development

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activities that take place.

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Their argument is that, you know,

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whatever development takes place, for example,

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mining or, or dam building

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or whatever, this is against the tribal people.

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This is against forest dwellers.

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This actually creates more problems for them.

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Uh, it enriches the upper class, it enriches the mainstream,

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but, but doesn't do much for them.

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So some of that is going into this alite movement where,

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they're, they're actually carrying out an armed

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rebellion of some sorts directed against the state and, and,

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and the representatives of the state.

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In terms of foreign policy.

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I would say that from the early 1990s onwards,

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India probably didn't have a choice

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because the Cold War came to an end.

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And what I would call is

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that Indian foreign policy had a bit of a reorientation from

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the old days of non-alignment to

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a more real realism based foreign policy

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where India was now, you know,

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reorienting itself from non-alignment to

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what might be called multi alignment or poly alignment.

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And, and it works out in, in, in, in several ways.

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You know, for, for example, with the big powers

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of the world, India wants to establish cordial relations

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with all the major powers, whether it's the United States,

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Russia, even China,

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because, you know, India's bilateral trade

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with China is very high.

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Uh, so even though there is a border problem and,

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and relations are not that good with China,

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nonetheless, on the economic side, you know, India I think

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sees advantage of, of doing business with China.

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Uh, similarly, India is now, have very good ties

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with the United States, with Europe, particularly

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with France, Germany, et cetera.

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And, and of course, Russia, which has been a traditional

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friend of India.

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Um, so one,

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one big change was this multi aligned,

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that Indian foreign policy adopted, gave up on

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that non-alignment posture,

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and this reflected the growing sense

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of realism in Indian foreign policy.

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Second, I would say India very strongly has positioned

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itself in many different ways over the years,

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and particularly under Mr.

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Modi as a leading voice, maybe even as a leader

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of the global south.

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So India is increasingly talking on behalf

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of the global south.

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And one of the big achievements in, in this space was

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the G 20 summit that was held in Delhi last year,

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when India was instrumental in getting the African Union

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admitted as a member of, of the G 20.

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And if you look at also India's role in, in, in,

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in a platform like Brix, for example, you know, Brazil,

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Russia, India, China, South Africa, Brix is now emerging

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as a major contributor to the global economy.

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Uh, if my data is correct,

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BrickX probably now contributes almost 30, 35%

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of the global economy,

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which is higher than even the G seven countries.

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Uh, and this number is going to grow

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because already bricks has been expanded to include,

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Ethiopia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran,

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the United Arab Emirates, et cetera.

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Uh, and, and there are many other countries waking in the

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wings to be admitted into bricks.

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So bricks could become a, a really brick big platform,

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and India would play a major role in Brix.

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As you know, one of the leading voices of the global south,

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India's engagement with Africa,

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has really grown over the last 10, 15 years.

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And the other thing that has happened is big push by Mr.

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Modi in terms of India's relationship with

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the Asia Pacific.

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You know, what, what India calls the act, east policy,

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you know, very cordial ties with asean, you know,

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big bilaterals with, with many Southeast Asian countries.

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Uh, and India is emerging now even as a defense supplier,

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to Southeast Asian countries,

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particularly the Philippines, Vietnam

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and, and, and so on.

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Other thing that has happened,

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two big developments in its own neighborhood.

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You know, in South Asia, India has rolled out under Mr.

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Modi, a neighborhood first policy, you know,

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very friendly, cordial approach

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to India's neighbors except for Pakistan.

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So Pakistan is the odd country out,

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but with all the other neighbors, India has engaged,

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and India has done, you know,

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taken a lead in helping these countries,

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particularly during the pandemic.

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Uh, then, you know, during Sri Lanka's economic crisis,

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it was India that stepped in and, and played a big role.

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And the other big initiative is saga,

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which is in the Indian Ocean, you know, security

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and growth, for all in the region, as Mr.

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00:13:58.235 --> 00:14:01.405
Modi calls it. So, India plays in the maritime space,

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a big role now in the India notion, in the, Arabia

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and c not only as a net security provider,

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but also to ensure that, that the literal states

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of the Indian not, they are part

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of this economic linkage that Mr.

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00:14:16.835 --> 00:14:20.565
Modi talks about, you know, trade, business, et cetera.

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And all of this, I think,

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is fundamentally connected with Mr.

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Modi's big approach, which is to make India

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a developed country by 2047.

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Uh, he talks about this, he,

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he talks about India becoming a manufacturing hub.

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Um, and, and,

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and, you know, this would ensure the stability

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of global supply chains, unlike, you know, the,

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the instability that comes with, you know,

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00:14:48.765 --> 00:14:50.405
China being the manufacturing hub.

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So India is now, you know, giving competition to China and,

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and many people like that, that, that India is a much more

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00:14:57.865 --> 00:15:01.625
of a, of a safer bet compared to China.

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00:15:02.365 --> 00:15:03.505
And, and Mr.

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Modi's plan is that all of this should lead to by 2047,

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when India celebrates a hundred years of its independence,

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to India becoming not only the third largest economy

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after the US and China,

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but also, a developed country,

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with a per capita income, close to 10,000 US dollars.

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Uh, so, so this is

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00:15:26.575 --> 00:15:29.225
what is happening on the foreign policy side.

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Look, I mean, there are two ways of looking at it.

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You know, one is, to look at it as,

301
00:15:37.945 --> 00:15:38.965
I mean Mr.

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00:15:39.305 --> 00:15:42.845
Modi's popularity, you know, the fact that he's won two,

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00:15:42.915 --> 00:15:44.845
back to back terms, five year terms.

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And if, if you'll follow the predictions, then he is likely

305
00:15:49.225 --> 00:15:51.685
to win handsomely in the elections

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00:15:51.685 --> 00:15:53.645
that are coming in in April, may.

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00:15:54.265 --> 00:15:58.145
Um, so it'll be third, third term for Mr. Modi.

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00:15:58.525 --> 00:16:01.345
And the only other prime minister in India who's actually

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00:16:01.345 --> 00:16:04.585
done that, is the first prime minister, Nero, who,

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who had three terms, you know, three back to back terms.

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But in those days, Nero did not have any opposition.

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There was hardly, you know,

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00:16:11.805 --> 00:16:13.745
any opposition in the Indian Parliament.

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Uh, and Mr.

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00:16:16.095 --> 00:16:19.625
Modi, like Nero is creating now a situation where

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00:16:20.255 --> 00:16:23.465
India's opposition parties are becoming practically,

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00:16:23.645 --> 00:16:25.185
you know, very marginal players.

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00:16:25.345 --> 00:16:28.385
I mean, the, the biggest challenge to the BJP, Mr.

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00:16:28.565 --> 00:16:31.705
Modi's BJP, is the Indian Congress, and,

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00:16:31.765 --> 00:16:34.945
and it is, it is a, you know, most people are saying

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00:16:34.945 --> 00:16:36.585
that it'll be tough for Congress

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00:16:36.585 --> 00:16:39.825
to even win 50 seats in the, in the next election.

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00:16:40.285 --> 00:16:42.705
So Congress would be reduced to almost, you know,

324
00:16:43.125 --> 00:16:46.305
to the periphery of Indian politics, national politics,

325
00:16:47.125 --> 00:16:50.265
and even the smaller regional political parties

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00:16:50.525 --> 00:16:51.625
are no match for Mr.

327
00:16:51.815 --> 00:16:52.865
Modi and the BJP.

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00:16:53.745 --> 00:16:57.605
And, and, and it is this, which many analysts look at and,

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00:16:57.665 --> 00:17:01.005
and think that this is, in a way the undermining

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of democracy in India.

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00:17:02.565 --> 00:17:05.245
I mean, I particularly don't see it that way. I think Mr.

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Modi's performance over the last 10 years has been

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00:17:07.805 --> 00:17:10.605
fantastic, and he has been able to connect

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00:17:10.605 --> 00:17:13.085
with a younger generation of Indian voters.

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Uh, India is a country where 70%

336
00:17:15.805 --> 00:17:17.365
of people are below the age of 30.

337
00:17:18.225 --> 00:17:22.005
Uh, and Mr. Modi, you know, resonates with them. They, Mr.

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00:17:22.235 --> 00:17:25.125
Modi has this unique magic of connecting with them,

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00:17:25.465 --> 00:17:27.805
you know, of, of, of touching their aspirations.

340
00:17:28.185 --> 00:17:31.605
So in a sense, Mr. Modi's, a very aspirational politician.

341
00:17:32.185 --> 00:17:35.365
Uh, he talks about this big vision for India, et cetera,

342
00:17:35.495 --> 00:17:37.205
which, which resonates with the people.

343
00:17:38.265 --> 00:17:41.085
The second point I thought would be interesting in this

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00:17:41.085 --> 00:17:45.405
context is to say that over the last 10 years, Mr.

345
00:17:45.675 --> 00:17:48.965
Modi has run what can be called actually a,

346
00:17:48.965 --> 00:17:51.085
a corruption free government in India,

347
00:17:51.495 --> 00:17:53.725
which is very unlike India,

348
00:17:53.725 --> 00:17:56.765
because in the past we have seen Indian governments,

349
00:17:56.765 --> 00:18:00.445
you know, mayad in corruption, all kinds of scams, you know,

350
00:18:00.685 --> 00:18:05.195
ministers being involved, et cetera, from 2014 until 2024,

351
00:18:05.455 --> 00:18:08.595
you could not actually even think of

352
00:18:09.955 --> 00:18:12.195
a small scam that was done under Mr.

353
00:18:12.425 --> 00:18:15.155
Modi, no matter what the opposition leaders talk about.

354
00:18:15.575 --> 00:18:17.435
It is the opposition parties, you know,

355
00:18:17.435 --> 00:18:19.715
which are under the scanner now,

356
00:18:19.855 --> 00:18:22.475
of this anti-corruption drive of Mr.

357
00:18:22.745 --> 00:18:24.995
Modi and Mr. Modi in, in terms

358
00:18:24.995 --> 00:18:26.515
of this anti-corruption drive,

359
00:18:26.775 --> 00:18:30.155
is very much like the Chinese president, Xi Jinping,

360
00:18:30.735 --> 00:18:33.115
you know, who's, who's basically, you know, going

361
00:18:33.115 --> 00:18:35.875
after people who are corrupt within the party,

362
00:18:35.875 --> 00:18:37.395
within the military, et cetera.

363
00:18:37.535 --> 00:18:38.795
So, Mr. Modi is like that,

364
00:18:38.795 --> 00:18:41.675
and his argument always has been that if we need

365
00:18:41.675 --> 00:18:45.635
to clean up corruption in India, it needs to start at the,

366
00:18:45.655 --> 00:18:47.555
at the very top, not at the bottom.

367
00:18:48.215 --> 00:18:51.195
So we have to, we have to go after the political leadership.

368
00:18:51.735 --> 00:18:54.395
Now, of course, opposition parties would say he's,

369
00:18:54.465 --> 00:18:56.635
he's targeting only opposition party leaders,

370
00:18:57.215 --> 00:18:58.715
not people within his own party.

371
00:18:59.295 --> 00:19:02.155
But I think most Indians believe that Mr.

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00:19:02.415 --> 00:19:04.675
Modi's core team, the main people

373
00:19:04.815 --> 00:19:07.155
around him are generally honest.

374
00:19:07.155 --> 00:19:10.995
They're not corrupt, like the, the people in the opposition.

375
00:19:11.375 --> 00:19:14.275
And, and therefore, it must, it may appear that Mr.

376
00:19:14.545 --> 00:19:16.435
Modi is being, you know, like a,

377
00:19:16.435 --> 00:19:19.195
like a dictator like authoritarian cracking down on these

378
00:19:19.195 --> 00:19:22.595
leaders when the public perception is

379
00:19:22.595 --> 00:19:24.915
that he's actually doing something very good

380
00:19:24.915 --> 00:19:26.795
for India, going forward.

381
00:19:27.775 --> 00:19:32.035
Uh, so my view is that this authoritarianism narrative,

382
00:19:32.575 --> 00:19:35.035
you need to look at it from these two angles.

383
00:19:35.615 --> 00:19:37.035
You know, one is, you know, Mr.

384
00:19:37.535 --> 00:19:40.915
The, the, the, the complete collapse of the,

385
00:19:40.975 --> 00:19:42.715
of the Indian Congress and,

386
00:19:42.775 --> 00:19:46.275
and the regional parties, in the, in,

387
00:19:46.275 --> 00:19:47.275
in the competition

388
00:19:47.295 --> 00:19:50.195
for votes against the VJP, and the other is Mr.

389
00:19:50.535 --> 00:19:53.235
Modi's, you know, uncompromising attitude towards

390
00:19:53.235 --> 00:19:56.835
corruption, which is putting people in jail, you know,

391
00:19:56.835 --> 00:19:58.515
which is putting them under the scanner.

392
00:19:59.105 --> 00:20:02.115
What happened was that during the Cold War,

393
00:20:02.115 --> 00:20:04.755
particularly from the nine, late 1960s,

394
00:20:04.805 --> 00:20:08.315
early seventies onwards, India had

395
00:20:08.315 --> 00:20:10.195
to lean more towards the Soviet Union,

396
00:20:10.195 --> 00:20:12.115
particularly when it came to defense.

397
00:20:12.695 --> 00:20:16.995
So most of the India's military hardware were Soviet made.

398
00:20:17.575 --> 00:20:20.235
Uh, Soviet Union was a loyal ally.

399
00:20:20.855 --> 00:20:23.835
Uh, it, it, it stood by India during moments

400
00:20:23.935 --> 00:20:25.475
of crises, et cetera.

401
00:20:26.335 --> 00:20:30.435
And India was heavily dependent on the Soviet Union for,

402
00:20:30.495 --> 00:20:34.955
for military supplies, for political support, et cetera.

403
00:20:35.735 --> 00:20:37.835
So when the Soviet Union collapsed,

404
00:20:38.415 --> 00:20:41.075
and during the first decade, or

405
00:20:41.075 --> 00:20:44.475
or throughout the 1990s, you know, when Russia was,

406
00:20:44.675 --> 00:20:47.605
a very weak economy, things were going, you know,

407
00:20:47.775 --> 00:20:50.765
going from back to worse in Russia,

408
00:20:50.985 --> 00:20:53.005
the Soviet supply chains collapsed.

409
00:20:53.345 --> 00:20:55.445
Uh, this was a big problem for India, that

410
00:20:55.475 --> 00:20:59.845
that Russia was now suddenly an unreliable, defense

411
00:21:00.525 --> 00:21:01.605
supplier and,

412
00:21:01.605 --> 00:21:04.405
and some of the other parts of the Soviet Union.

413
00:21:04.505 --> 00:21:05.965
So, for example, you know,

414
00:21:05.965 --> 00:21:07.925
certain things were made in Ukraine, you know,

415
00:21:07.925 --> 00:21:10.365
which the Indians were interested in buying, even

416
00:21:10.965 --> 00:21:13.045
countries like Ukraine, where suddenly, you know,

417
00:21:13.065 --> 00:21:17.125
not in a very strong position, to give India this sense

418
00:21:17.155 --> 00:21:18.685
that, you know, they would be able

419
00:21:18.685 --> 00:21:20.565
to meet India's defense needs.

420
00:21:22.645 --> 00:21:26.025
So what happened in a sense was that, you know, and,

421
00:21:26.025 --> 00:21:30.025
and India was now working with this very realist concept

422
00:21:30.215 --> 00:21:33.065
that we should not put all our eggs in one basket.

423
00:21:33.765 --> 00:21:35.025
We should try and build up

424
00:21:35.025 --> 00:21:36.625
relationship with other countries.

425
00:21:37.045 --> 00:21:38.665
And defense played a big role in that.

426
00:21:38.805 --> 00:21:41.795
So, India's relationship with the US

427
00:21:41.895 --> 00:21:46.035
as it started growing America started producing, you know,

428
00:21:46.035 --> 00:21:48.075
providing India with defense supplies.

429
00:21:48.495 --> 00:21:50.275
And the Indian military was very keen

430
00:21:50.275 --> 00:21:51.435
to buy American weapons.

431
00:21:51.695 --> 00:21:54.035
Now, because there was this perception

432
00:21:54.035 --> 00:21:56.595
that these were the latest technology weapons.

433
00:21:57.015 --> 00:21:59.555
So, you know, India started buying weapons from America.

434
00:22:00.285 --> 00:22:04.315
India also started buying heavily weapons from France,

435
00:22:04.505 --> 00:22:06.835
both in submarine development, you know,

436
00:22:07.075 --> 00:22:10.675
fighter jets like the Rafa, fighter jets, et cetera.

437
00:22:11.775 --> 00:22:16.555
And India also started buying weapons from Israel,

438
00:22:16.615 --> 00:22:20.795
for example, so, so defense cooperation

439
00:22:21.215 --> 00:22:24.075
to offset the unreliability of Russia.

440
00:22:24.895 --> 00:22:28.595
Uh, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, saw India

441
00:22:29.255 --> 00:22:31.595
buying weapons from multiple partners.

442
00:22:31.655 --> 00:22:34.515
Now, which fitted into the concept that, you know, we need

443
00:22:34.515 --> 00:22:37.075
to develop our partnership with all players

444
00:22:37.415 --> 00:22:39.355
and not just focus on, on, on Russia.

445
00:22:41.895 --> 00:22:45.975
Now, with Russia's, you know, the growing stability

446
00:22:46.045 --> 00:22:50.815
that came after President Putin came to power in 2000,

447
00:22:50.875 --> 00:22:53.535
and, and gradually, you know, when Russia stabilized,

448
00:22:53.535 --> 00:22:54.655
it picked up its economy.

449
00:22:55.595 --> 00:22:58.015
The old relationship between Russia

450
00:22:58.155 --> 00:22:59.375
and India picked up again.

451
00:22:59.835 --> 00:23:04.175
So Russia today is still a major defense supplier to India.

452
00:23:05.385 --> 00:23:07.235
However, because Russia,

453
00:23:07.455 --> 00:23:09.915
for the last two years have been involved in the Ukraine

454
00:23:10.015 --> 00:23:14.195
war, and it has, you know, increased its defense production,

455
00:23:14.195 --> 00:23:17.395
but most of the increased capacity is now going towards the

456
00:23:17.695 --> 00:23:19.035
war in Ukraine.

457
00:23:19.605 --> 00:23:23.955
India, all of a sudden, again, is facing a scenario where,

458
00:23:25.145 --> 00:23:27.375
let's say hypothetically, I mean, if India were

459
00:23:27.375 --> 00:23:28.695
to be in a war with China

460
00:23:29.035 --> 00:23:32.895
and needed rapid reinforcements of, of weapons, you know,

461
00:23:32.895 --> 00:23:36.775
rapid supply of weapons and spare parts and motors

462
00:23:36.815 --> 00:23:40.135
and shells and, and whatnot, how,

463
00:23:40.435 --> 00:23:43.975
how ready would Russia be to provide those, those supplies

464
00:23:44.035 --> 00:23:47.805
to India, if India were to get into a serious conflict

465
00:23:47.805 --> 00:23:50.085
with China, or with Pakistan?

466
00:23:50.905 --> 00:23:54.685
And it is this, I think, which is now once again, you know,

467
00:23:54.685 --> 00:23:56.445
putting pressure on India

468
00:23:56.505 --> 00:23:59.445
and the Indian government to buy weapons from

469
00:24:00.085 --> 00:24:03.005
multiple sources, you know, America primarily,

470
00:24:03.005 --> 00:24:06.005
but also Europe, Israel, et cetera.

471
00:24:07.285 --> 00:24:10.185
But this also raises another very interesting

472
00:24:10.415 --> 00:24:11.585
dilemma for India.

473
00:24:12.275 --> 00:24:16.855
If you look at the latest CPR reports about countries,

474
00:24:16.995 --> 00:24:19.055
you know, which countries bought how many weapons,

475
00:24:19.845 --> 00:24:21.415
then India is still one

476
00:24:21.415 --> 00:24:23.975
of the biggest importers of, of weapons.

477
00:24:24.995 --> 00:24:27.135
And Mr. Modi's argument has been

478
00:24:27.205 --> 00:24:29.575
that this is unsustainable in the long run,

479
00:24:30.005 --> 00:24:32.855
because when you look at the Indian defense budget of,

480
00:24:32.855 --> 00:24:37.145
let's say about $70 billion a year, a major portion of

481
00:24:37.145 --> 00:24:41.865
that budget goes in paying salaries, pensions, to a large,

482
00:24:42.085 --> 00:24:43.225
you know, standing military.

483
00:24:43.845 --> 00:24:46.985
So that leaves already a small amount

484
00:24:47.525 --> 00:24:50.345
for capital expenditure, which is, you know, to buy weapons

485
00:24:50.565 --> 00:24:52.385
to modernize the force, et cetera.

486
00:24:52.925 --> 00:24:56.585
So, Mr. Modi's argument is that instead of buying

487
00:24:57.965 --> 00:25:02.535
expensive products from outside and importing them to India,

488
00:25:03.275 --> 00:25:07.135
and then also becoming dependent on the supplier

489
00:25:07.355 --> 00:25:09.695
for supplies in the event of a war,

490
00:25:10.555 --> 00:25:13.175
we must develop our own defense industry in India.

491
00:25:13.635 --> 00:25:18.215
So the, the indigenous content, the indigenous, you know,

492
00:25:18.825 --> 00:25:22.935
percentage, in India's defense acquisition must grow up,

493
00:25:23.325 --> 00:25:25.935
must go forward or, or, or become larger.

494
00:25:26.995 --> 00:25:30.175
So by contrast, if you look at China, you know, almost 90%

495
00:25:30.195 --> 00:25:32.055
of the Chinese military hardware

496
00:25:32.055 --> 00:25:33.215
comes from indigenous sources.

497
00:25:33.825 --> 00:25:35.895
China buys very little from outside,

498
00:25:36.035 --> 00:25:37.775
it produces whatever it needs.

499
00:25:38.515 --> 00:25:41.575
So does the United States, so does Russia. So Mr.

500
00:25:41.795 --> 00:25:45.855
Modi's argument is, we need to open the defense industry

501
00:25:45.955 --> 00:25:46.975
to the private sector,

502
00:25:47.185 --> 00:25:49.455
which previously was not done in India

503
00:25:49.565 --> 00:25:52.055
because of government monopoly, you know, that

504
00:25:52.375 --> 00:25:54.575
provided whatever little defense,

505
00:25:54.635 --> 00:25:56.695
or armaments, you know, you had in India.

506
00:25:56.955 --> 00:25:59.135
So now the field has been totally made open.

507
00:25:59.325 --> 00:26:02.535
Private players can come in, big defense, you know,

508
00:26:02.775 --> 00:26:04.615
contracts are being given to private companies.

509
00:26:05.035 --> 00:26:07.775
And Mr. Modi's aim is that over the next 20 years,

510
00:26:08.575 --> 00:26:13.495
I would love to see 70, 75% of India's defense acquisitions

511
00:26:14.035 --> 00:26:15.975
coming from indigenous sources.

512
00:26:16.835 --> 00:26:19.935
And these private players, even government players,

513
00:26:20.595 --> 00:26:25.075
can enter into, you know, negotiations

514
00:26:25.105 --> 00:26:26.835
with foreign foreign partners

515
00:26:27.295 --> 00:26:31.995
to produce defense equipments in India under a joint license

516
00:26:32.255 --> 00:26:35.795
or under, you know, particular agreements, et cetera,

517
00:26:35.855 --> 00:26:38.995
et cetera, technology transfer and, and so on and so forth.

518
00:26:39.535 --> 00:26:43.155
So my, my take is that going forward

519
00:26:43.745 --> 00:26:46.485
by 2047, we will see

520
00:26:47.195 --> 00:26:50.845
that India's defense acquisition, a large percentage of it

521
00:26:51.455 --> 00:26:53.685
maybe not as high as 75%,

522
00:26:53.705 --> 00:26:57.525
but close to 50% will come from domestic sources

523
00:26:58.185 --> 00:27:02.605
and India's import of defense, items,

524
00:27:03.465 --> 00:27:05.285
gradually will come down

525
00:27:05.705 --> 00:27:09.885
and India will be producing this closely associated with,

526
00:27:09.885 --> 00:27:11.605
this is the other aspect, which is,

527
00:27:11.945 --> 00:27:15.525
as the Indian arms manufacturing industries grow,

528
00:27:16.095 --> 00:27:19.445
India will also be selling arms to other countries,

529
00:27:19.445 --> 00:27:21.405
particularly in the global south.

530
00:27:21.865 --> 00:27:25.605
So the Indian OSE cruise missile, for example,

531
00:27:25.615 --> 00:27:28.165
which is manufactured jointly with Russia.

532
00:27:28.905 --> 00:27:32.525
Uh, India has agreed to sell the Bramos cruise missile

533
00:27:32.545 --> 00:27:35.365
to the Vietnam and also to the Philippines.

534
00:27:35.905 --> 00:27:40.125
Uh, the Indian manufactured fighter aircraft,

535
00:27:40.845 --> 00:27:44.045
I believe, very advanced, talks are going on

536
00:27:44.045 --> 00:27:47.725
with the Philippines, with Egypt, for the sale of

537
00:27:47.725 --> 00:27:49.205
that fighter jet,

538
00:27:49.205 --> 00:27:51.685
particularly the next generation fighter jet.

539
00:27:52.185 --> 00:27:55.205
Uh, so on the defense side, I think

540
00:27:55.755 --> 00:27:59.085
what we are witnessing is a transformation, the growth

541
00:27:59.085 --> 00:28:00.645
of India's defense industry.

542
00:28:01.065 --> 00:28:04.405
Uh, and, and all of this has been made possible

543
00:28:04.715 --> 00:28:07.445
because of changes in the global landscape.

544
00:28:08.115 --> 00:28:12.255
As I said, I think India's foreign policy reflects a growing

545
00:28:12.905 --> 00:28:14.215
sense of realism.

546
00:28:15.155 --> 00:28:18.935
Um, it, it reflects India's,

547
00:28:20.045 --> 00:28:22.945
you know, almost the emergence

548
00:28:22.945 --> 00:28:24.865
of India's civilizational identity.

549
00:28:25.845 --> 00:28:29.185
Uh, India, India has a civilizational state like China,

550
00:28:29.255 --> 00:28:31.265
like Russia, wants

551
00:28:31.265 --> 00:28:33.865
to play a big role in global politics.

552
00:28:34.045 --> 00:28:37.465
And, and through foreign policy, you can see India beginning

553
00:28:37.565 --> 00:28:41.945
to assert itself, in global politics, particularly

554
00:28:42.485 --> 00:28:47.425
in multilateral for, particularly representing

555
00:28:47.445 --> 00:28:50.225
or talking about some of the big challenges

556
00:28:50.295 --> 00:28:53.705
that the global south as a whole actually faces.

557
00:28:55.075 --> 00:28:58.935
And India has been one of the big, you know, countries

558
00:28:59.035 --> 00:29:03.455
or one of the big voices demanding, for example,

559
00:29:03.875 --> 00:29:07.575
UN reforms that the UN Security Council should be reformed

560
00:29:07.845 --> 00:29:12.375
because the way the UN Security Council exists right now,

561
00:29:12.725 --> 00:29:15.175
India's argument is this is anachronistic.

562
00:29:15.805 --> 00:29:19.055
This does not reflect the power equation of today's world.

563
00:29:20.145 --> 00:29:23.405
And countries like India need to become a permanent member

564
00:29:23.425 --> 00:29:24.765
of the UN Security Council,

565
00:29:25.425 --> 00:29:28.605
or the UN will basically lose its relevance

566
00:29:28.605 --> 00:29:32.365
because, you know, nobody will accept the legitimacy

567
00:29:32.465 --> 00:29:35.765
of any decision made by the un, if,

568
00:29:35.865 --> 00:29:37.845
if it is not reformed urgently.

569
00:29:38.265 --> 00:29:40.165
So India's demand for un reform

570
00:29:41.425 --> 00:29:43.435
India's participation in bricks,

571
00:29:43.735 --> 00:29:47.355
and in the G 20, you know, India was instrumental.

572
00:29:47.405 --> 00:29:51.115
India, and diplomacy was very, very successful in,

573
00:29:51.265 --> 00:29:55.675
last year in the Delhi Delhi Summit, to actually create,

574
00:29:56.335 --> 00:29:58.915
a consensus,

575
00:29:59.015 --> 00:30:01.555
and pass a final resolution of the summit,

576
00:30:01.565 --> 00:30:03.075
which everybody could agree to.

577
00:30:03.775 --> 00:30:06.435
Now, go back one, one year, I mean,

578
00:30:06.435 --> 00:30:09.955
in 2022 at the Bali Summit in Indonesia,

579
00:30:10.025 --> 00:30:12.675
that consensus was, was not possible to achieve.

580
00:30:13.355 --> 00:30:17.015
Uh, but within one year in Delhi, India was able to achieve

581
00:30:17.015 --> 00:30:19.015
that consensus, and, and,

582
00:30:19.115 --> 00:30:21.255
and the summit was able to pass a resolution.

583
00:30:21.835 --> 00:30:25.255
So many countries after that, many diplomats

584
00:30:25.255 --> 00:30:27.665
after that made the argument

585
00:30:27.695 --> 00:30:29.905
that India is basically like a bridge

586
00:30:29.905 --> 00:30:31.345
between different worlds.

587
00:30:31.895 --> 00:30:33.545
It's, it could play a role of a bridge

588
00:30:33.545 --> 00:30:37.625
between the western world, Russia, China, and,

589
00:30:37.685 --> 00:30:41.025
and the global south as a, as a responsible

590
00:30:41.635 --> 00:30:43.425
voice in global politics.

591
00:30:43.525 --> 00:30:45.705
And, and that voice is increasingly very, very,

592
00:30:46.245 --> 00:30:47.305
confident.

593
00:30:47.685 --> 00:30:51.625
It is very, clear in terms of how it sees the world.

594
00:30:52.555 --> 00:30:56.615
And India has always made one argument consistently

595
00:30:56.715 --> 00:30:59.335
for the last 75 years, which is,

596
00:31:00.705 --> 00:31:02.445
we are a sovereign country.

597
00:31:03.265 --> 00:31:07.725
We will, at any cost preserve our strategic autonomy.

598
00:31:08.225 --> 00:31:10.965
We will not sacrifice our strategic autonomy.

599
00:31:11.505 --> 00:31:15.495
So India, therefore always has looked at

600
00:31:15.975 --> 00:31:17.175
alliances with suspicion.

601
00:31:17.705 --> 00:31:19.895
India doesn't want to join alliances

602
00:31:19.895 --> 00:31:22.215
because when you join alliances, you know, you have

603
00:31:22.215 --> 00:31:24.295
to follow the dict of others.

604
00:31:24.515 --> 00:31:25.855
So India regions,

605
00:31:26.405 --> 00:31:29.735
therefore for itself, the right to make decisions

606
00:31:29.735 --> 00:31:31.015
for itself, to speak

607
00:31:31.115 --> 00:31:34.375
for the world in a very autonomous kind of way.

608
00:31:35.195 --> 00:31:39.855
Uh, and even in a grouping like the Quad, for example,

609
00:31:41.065 --> 00:31:42.205
you know, if you look at the quad,

610
00:31:42.205 --> 00:31:43.445
many people have asked me, you know,

611
00:31:43.445 --> 00:31:44.845
is the quad a military alliance?

612
00:31:44.905 --> 00:31:46.285
And my answer is no.

613
00:31:46.285 --> 00:31:49.325
If you ask the Indians, it's basically a platform

614
00:31:49.325 --> 00:31:52.405
where we can sit and we can discuss, you know, almost like,

615
00:31:52.665 --> 00:31:55.325
you know, four democracies coming together to,

616
00:31:55.385 --> 00:31:56.405
to talk about issues.

617
00:31:56.945 --> 00:31:58.805
Uh, but it is not an alliance.

618
00:31:59.505 --> 00:32:02.325
And, and India would be loads to join an alliance.

619
00:32:02.465 --> 00:32:04.885
So if the quad ever became an alliance,

620
00:32:05.485 --> 00:32:07.925
I think the Indians would have a problem with that,

621
00:32:08.165 --> 00:32:10.445
particularly with respect to this concept

622
00:32:10.705 --> 00:32:11.805
of strategic autonomy.

623
00:32:12.765 --> 00:32:15.705
Uh, and, and I think this is something that

624
00:32:16.405 --> 00:32:19.025
you can see actually being played out in the context

625
00:32:19.165 --> 00:32:23.465
of the Ukraine war, where India has consistently refused

626
00:32:23.525 --> 00:32:26.505
to criticize and condemn Russia in spite

627
00:32:26.505 --> 00:32:29.425
of tremendous pressure from the US and from Europe,

628
00:32:29.605 --> 00:32:32.385
and from nato and from the west in general.

629
00:32:33.045 --> 00:32:36.265
Uh, and Prime Minister Modi, foreign Minister Shankar,

630
00:32:37.385 --> 00:32:39.765
repeatedly have said that, you know,

631
00:32:39.785 --> 00:32:42.085
we make judgements based on our interest.

632
00:32:42.665 --> 00:32:45.125
Uh, we, we don't, we don't succumb to pressure.

633
00:32:45.265 --> 00:32:46.725
We don't, we don't fall into,

634
00:32:46.905 --> 00:32:48.805
we don't have this binary vision of the world.

635
00:32:48.835 --> 00:32:51.005
That may be your narrative, that may be your vision,

636
00:32:51.585 --> 00:32:55.005
but we choose to define where we stand based on

637
00:32:55.145 --> 00:32:56.765
how we analyze the situation.

638
00:32:56.945 --> 00:32:59.285
So this is a reflection of that strategic autonomy.

639
00:33:00.145 --> 00:33:02.925
And, and this, you know, Indi Indigenization

640
00:33:03.065 --> 00:33:07.525
of Defense manufacturing is, is also, a sign of this

641
00:33:08.165 --> 00:33:11.005
strategic autonomy that if we don't import from outside,

642
00:33:11.595 --> 00:33:14.645
that means we have others will have less control over

643
00:33:14.645 --> 00:33:16.325
what we can do with those weapons

644
00:33:17.105 --> 00:33:20.565
or in times of crisis, you know, they can restrict supplies

645
00:33:20.665 --> 00:33:22.205
or spare parts and, and,

646
00:33:22.585 --> 00:33:24.725
and force us to do things that they want.

647
00:33:25.035 --> 00:33:28.285
Whereas if we make those weapons ourselves, if we, you know,

648
00:33:28.285 --> 00:33:32.735
produce everything in India, then we have, you know,

649
00:33:32.745 --> 00:33:36.295
total autonomy over how much we make, how we use them,

650
00:33:36.955 --> 00:33:40.655
you know, in the event of a war, you know, you know,

651
00:33:40.655 --> 00:33:42.575
to ensure supplies, et cetera, et cetera.

652
00:33:43.195 --> 00:33:46.375
Uh, so, so I think what you will see is

653
00:33:46.445 --> 00:33:50.775
that Indian foreign policy will always be grounded

654
00:33:51.315 --> 00:33:55.735
or, or, or anchored by this tremendous consensus in India

655
00:33:55.735 --> 00:33:58.695
that we must not sacrifice this concept called

656
00:33:59.455 --> 00:33:59.975
strategy autonomy.

Indian Politics: Diversity and Identity Conflicts

00:00:00 - The chapter's main, purpose was to talk about, Indian politics as it has emerged, particularly since Mr. Modi came to power in 2014. some of the, you know, some of the, major achievements of the government, both in his first term and in his second term, but also to highlight certain problems, within, Indian politics. Then, to also talk about the orientation
00:00:37 - since, since the 1990s. You know, one can go back even before Mr. Modi, because, because this is a, this is a continuation of a trend that started around 91, 92, but certainly accelerated under Mr. Modi after 2014. so this was, this was generally the, you know, the, the purpose of the chapter. So there's a lot to unpack there.
00:01:08 - the first thing that strikes anybody is, you know, how ethnically diverse India is. It is a, it is a big country. It has multiple ethnic groups, you know, major groups, and if you include minor groups, you are looking at, you know, at least over hundreds of ethnic groups. you are talking about, a country with multiple,
00:01:36 - You know, Hindi is the official language, but there are also, you know, co official languages, at least 18 or 19, languages, over 300 dialects country that is, religiously in incredibly diverse. You know, all the religions of the world are in India, the majority being the Hindus, but then there are significant, numbers of Muslims, Sikhs and Christians, and Buddhists, and Janes
00:02:10 - So it's a mind bogglingly, complicated, ethnically diverse country. And ever since India became independent in 1947, ethnic violence in some form or the other has been with India, India is still grappling in some senses, with, with identity politics and, and, you know, political agitations, sometimes violent agitations based on identity,
00:02:41 - of ethnicity, et cetera. So, my take on this is that there are broadly four categories of identity conflicts in India, which, you know, one may broadly call ethnic conflict. The first one is what we call secessionist Ethnic conflicts. These are mostly ethnic groups, which are located in the border areas of India, either in the India,

Ethnic Conflicts and Secessionist Movements in India

00:03:13 - state like Jamo and Kashmir, or in the west state, like Punjab, where from time to time you see agitations movements by ethnic groups, tribal groups, you know, groups that focus on their, their identity distinction, from, from the majority Hindus in a sense, who have demanded to separate from India
00:03:45 - or to join with a neighboring country. So in, in, in the case of Jamu and Kashmir, there was a movement throughout the 1990s and and beyond, you know, into the, into the century where people started talking about Jammu and Kashmir's Islamic identity, and that the, you know, that the valley part of Jammu and Kashmir should break away from India and join, with Pakistan, or at the very least, become, you know,
00:04:17 - Indian state of Punjab. Throughout the 1980s, we saw secessionist type of violence demand for Stan, et cetera, which again, is being revived as we speak. now there is some, you know, some, some, developments happening in that space. And the India Northeast has always been, very turbulent from the point of view of secessionist ethnic conflict.
00:04:47 - of these conflicts, particularly in Assam, have been now resolved, have been now tamed, have been, have been addressed. So, so that's one category of ethnic conflict. Then you have a second category of ethnic conflict where there are ethnic agitations within the country in certain areas. And the aim of these agitations is not actually to break away from India, but to seek actually a different status within the Indian Union.
00:05:18 - are seen in India as movements for the creation of smaller states. So you have bigger administrative entities, which are multi-ethnic. So some of the minorities within these bigger entities may want to break away, not from the country, but to break away from the bigger entity, and, and create a state of their own. So, for example, in the northern part of West Bengal State,
00:05:49 - and ethnic, you know, Bhutanese lectures, et cetera. And there has been a long history of, of agitation and struggle in the, in the northern part of West Bengal, that they want to create. They wanna break away from West Bengal. They wanna create a separate province or state called Go Kalan. and, and there are, you know, there are certain, there's a, there's, there's an argument which says that, you know, if we are able to create gold kalan,

Regionalism and Ethnic Conflicts in India

00:06:20 - of West Bal state. So you have these statehood agitations in many parts of India. oftentimes these, these agitation take the form of, this demand for, for, for regionalism. In other words, basically saying that the local suns of the soil, the local people should get preferential benefits, preferential treatment, compared to outsiders
00:06:48 - So oftentimes it, it acquires that sort of flavor, saying that, you know, that this is about the sons of the soil kind of movement. Thirdly, in my opinion, you have a type of ethnic conflict in India, which can be called communal violence, communal conflict. It's mostly between Hindus and Muslims, but it can have alternative character as well. There is a, there is, you know, a little bit of sectarian violence within the Muslim community as well.
00:07:22 - or, or, or communal violence between Hindus and Sikhs, particularly in, you know, in the mid 1980s, with the assassination of Indian Prime Minister in the rhi. there was, there was campaign of violence against the Sikhs, et cetera. So communal violence is a category of ethnic conflict that one needs to study, probably very systematically in India. And finally, in my opinion, there is a kind of identity
00:07:52 - as nationalism in India, which is extreme, you know, hardcore, communist movement, and with communist ideology, what you have here is a base which is essentially peasant tribal, and sometimes, you know, people who are outside, you know, within the Hindu community and outside the cost system that the so-called the elites, or the, or even untouchables. So it's a, it's a, it's, it's a platform of many
00:08:25 - who are at the bottom of the ladder socioeconomic ladder. and this is about, you know, revolt against the state, because they see the state as essentially exploitative, many of these, alite agitation, you know, their objective is, to, to, to, to protest against the development activities that take place. Their argument is that, you know, whatever development takes place, for example,
00:08:58 - or whatever, this is against the tribal people. This is against forest dwellers. This actually creates more problems for them. it enriches the upper class, it enriches the mainstream, but, but doesn't do much for them. So some of that is going into this alite movement where, they're, they're actually carrying out an armed rebellion of some sorts directed against the state and, and, and the representatives of the state. In terms of foreign policy.

India's Shift from Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment

00:09:31 - India probably didn't have a choice because the Cold War came to an end. And what I would call is that Indian foreign policy had a bit of a reorientation from the old days of non-alignment to a more real realism based foreign policy where India was now, you know, reorienting itself from non-alignment to what might be called multi alignment or poly alignment.
00:10:03 - You know, for, for example, with the big powers of the world, India wants to establish cordial relations with all the major powers, whether it's the United States, Russia, even China, because, you know, India's bilateral trade with China is very high. so even though there is a border problem and, and relations are not that good with China, nonetheless, on the economic side, you know, India I think sees advantage of, of doing business with China.
00:10:36 - with the United States, with Europe, particularly with France, Germany, et cetera. And, and of course, Russia, which has been a traditional friend of India. so one, one big change was this multi aligned, that Indian foreign policy adopted, gave up on that non-alignment posture, and this reflected the growing sense of realism in Indian foreign policy.
00:11:08 - itself in many different ways over the years, and particularly under Mr. Modi as a leading voice, maybe even as a leader of the global south. So India is increasingly talking on behalf of the global south. And one of the big achievements in, in this space was the G 20 summit that was held in Delhi last year, when India was instrumental in getting the African Union
00:11:38 - And if you look at also India's role in, in, in, in a platform like Brix, for example, you know, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Brix is now emerging as a major contributor to the global economy. if my data is correct, BrickX probably now contributes almost 30, 35% of the global economy, which is higher than even the G seven countries.
00:12:09 - because already bricks has been expanded to include, Ethiopia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, et cetera. and, and there are many other countries waking in the wings to be admitted into bricks. So bricks could become a, a really brick big platform, and India would play a major role in Brix. As you know, one of the leading voices of the global south, India's engagement with Africa,

India's Strategic Shift in Asia-Pacific Relations

00:12:41 - And the other thing that has happened is big push by Mr. Modi in terms of India's relationship with the Asia Pacific. You know, what, what India calls the act, east policy, you know, very cordial ties with asean, you know, big bilaterals with, with many Southeast Asian countries. and India is emerging now even as a defense supplier, to Southeast Asian countries, particularly the Philippines, Vietnam
00:13:12 - Other thing that has happened, two big developments in its own neighborhood. You know, in South Asia, India has rolled out under Mr. Modi, a neighborhood first policy, you know, very friendly, cordial approach to India's neighbors except for Pakistan. So Pakistan is the odd country out, but with all the other neighbors, India has engaged, and India has done, you know, taken a lead in helping these countries,
00:13:42 - then, you know, during Sri Lanka's economic crisis, it was India that stepped in and, and played a big role. And the other big initiative is saga, which is in the Indian Ocean, you know, security and growth, for all in the region, as Mr. Modi calls it. So, India plays in the maritime space, a big role now in the India notion, in the, Arabia and c not only as a net security provider, but also to ensure that, that the literal states
00:14:14 - of this economic linkage that Mr. Modi talks about, you know, trade, business, et cetera. And all of this, I think, is fundamentally connected with Mr. Modi's big approach, which is to make India a developed country by 2047. he talks about this, he, he talks about India becoming a manufacturing hub. and, and, and, you know, this would ensure the stability
00:14:46 - the instability that comes with, you know, China being the manufacturing hub. So India is now, you know, giving competition to China and, and many people like that, that, that India is a much more of a, of a safer bet compared to China. And, and Mr. Modi's plan is that all of this should lead to by 2047, when India celebrates a hundred years of its independence, to India becoming not only the third largest economy
00:15:17 - but also, a developed country, with a per capita income, close to 10,000 US dollars. so, so this is what is happening on the foreign policy side. Look, I mean, there are two ways of looking at it. You know, one is, to look at it as, I mean Mr. Modi's popularity, you know, the fact that he's won two, back to back terms, five year terms.

Modi's Dominance in Indian Politics

00:15:49 - to win handsomely in the elections that are coming in in April, may. so it'll be third, third term for Mr. Modi. And the only other prime minister in India who's actually done that, is the first prime minister, Nero, who, who had three terms, you know, three back to back terms. But in those days, Nero did not have any opposition. There was hardly, you know, any opposition in the Indian Parliament. and Mr.
00:16:20 - India's opposition parties are becoming practically, you know, very marginal players. I mean, the, the biggest challenge to the BJP, Mr. Modi's BJP, is the Indian Congress, and, and it is, it is a, you know, most people are saying that it'll be tough for Congress to even win 50 seats in the, in the next election. So Congress would be reduced to almost, you know, to the periphery of Indian politics, national politics,
00:16:50 - are no match for Mr. Modi and the BJP. And, and, and it is this, which many analysts look at and, and think that this is, in a way the undermining of democracy in India. I mean, I particularly don't see it that way. I think Mr. Modi's performance over the last 10 years has been fantastic, and he has been able to connect with a younger generation of Indian voters. India is a country where 70% of people are below the age of 30.
00:17:22 - Modi has this unique magic of connecting with them, you know, of, of, of touching their aspirations. So in a sense, Mr. Modi's, a very aspirational politician. he talks about this big vision for India, et cetera, which, which resonates with the people. The second point I thought would be interesting in this context is to say that over the last 10 years, Mr. Modi has run what can be called actually a,
00:17:51 - which is very unlike India, because in the past we have seen Indian governments, you know, mayad in corruption, all kinds of scams, you know, ministers being involved, et cetera, from 2014 until 2024, you could not actually even think of a small scam that was done under Mr. Modi, no matter what the opposition leaders talk about. It is the opposition parties, you know, which are under the scanner now,
00:18:22 - Modi and Mr. Modi in, in terms of this anti-corruption drive, is very much like the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, you know, who's, who's basically, you know, going after people who are corrupt within the party, within the military, et cetera. So, Mr. Modi is like that, and his argument always has been that if we need to clean up corruption in India, it needs to start at the, at the very top, not at the bottom. So we have to, we have to go after the political leadership.

Modi's Leadership: Perception vs. Reality

00:18:54 - he's targeting only opposition party leaders, not people within his own party. But I think most Indians believe that Mr. Modi's core team, the main people around him are generally honest. They're not corrupt, like the, the people in the opposition. And, and therefore, it must, it may appear that Mr. Modi is being, you know, like a, like a dictator like authoritarian cracking down on these leaders when the public perception is
00:19:24 - for India, going forward. so my view is that this authoritarianism narrative, you need to look at it from these two angles. You know, one is, you know, Mr. The, the, the, the complete collapse of the, of the Indian Congress and, and the regional parties, in the, in, in the competition for votes against the VJP, and the other is Mr. Modi's, you know, uncompromising attitude towards
00:19:56 - which is putting them under the scanner. What happened was that during the Cold War, particularly from the nine, late 1960s, early seventies onwards, India had to lean more towards the Soviet Union, particularly when it came to defense. So most of the India's military hardware were Soviet made. Soviet Union was a loyal ally. it, it, it stood by India during moments
00:20:26 - And India was heavily dependent on the Soviet Union for, for military supplies, for political support, et cetera. So when the Soviet Union collapsed, and during the first decade, or or throughout the 1990s, you know, when Russia was, a very weak economy, things were going, you know, going from back to worse in Russia, the Soviet supply chains collapsed. this was a big problem for India, that
00:21:00 - supplier and, and some of the other parts of the Soviet Union. So, for example, you know, certain things were made in Ukraine, you know, which the Indians were interested in buying, even countries like Ukraine, where suddenly, you know, not in a very strong position, to give India this sense that, you know, they would be able to meet India's defense needs. So what happened in a sense was that, you know, and,
00:21:30 - that we should not put all our eggs in one basket. We should try and build up relationship with other countries. And defense played a big role in that. So, India's relationship with the US as it started growing America started producing, you know, providing India with defense supplies. And the Indian military was very keen to buy American weapons. Now, because there was this perception that these were the latest technology weapons.

India's Evolving Defense Partnerships and Challenges

00:22:00 - India also started buying heavily weapons from France, both in submarine development, you know, fighter jets like the Rafa, fighter jets, et cetera. And India also started buying weapons from Israel, for example, so, so defense cooperation to offset the unreliability of Russia. after the collapse of the Soviet Union, saw India
00:22:31 - Now, which fitted into the concept that, you know, we need to develop our partnership with all players and not just focus on, on, on Russia. Now, with Russia's, you know, the growing stability that came after President Putin came to power in 2000, and, and gradually, you know, when Russia stabilized, it picked up its economy. The old relationship between Russia and India picked up again.
00:23:05 - However, because Russia, for the last two years have been involved in the Ukraine war, and it has, you know, increased its defense production, but most of the increased capacity is now going towards the war in Ukraine. India, all of a sudden, again, is facing a scenario where, let's say hypothetically, I mean, if India were to be in a war with China and needed rapid reinforcements of, of weapons, you know,
00:23:36 - and shells and, and whatnot, how, how ready would Russia be to provide those, those supplies to India, if India were to get into a serious conflict with China, or with Pakistan? And it is this, I think, which is now once again, you know, putting pressure on India and the Indian government to buy weapons from multiple sources, you know, America primarily,
00:24:07 - But this also raises another very interesting dilemma for India. If you look at the latest CPR reports about countries, you know, which countries bought how many weapons, then India is still one of the biggest importers of, of weapons. And Mr. Modi's argument has been that this is unsustainable in the long run, because when you look at the Indian defense budget of, let's say about $70 billion a year, a major portion of
00:24:42 - you know, standing military. So that leaves already a small amount for capital expenditure, which is, you know, to buy weapons to modernize the force, et cetera. So, Mr. Modi's argument is that instead of buying expensive products from outside and importing them to India, and then also becoming dependent on the supplier

Transforming India's Defense Industry for Self-Reliance

00:25:10 - we must develop our own defense industry in India. So the, the indigenous content, the indigenous, you know, percentage, in India's defense acquisition must grow up, must go forward or, or, or become larger. So by contrast, if you look at China, you know, almost 90% of the Chinese military hardware comes from indigenous sources. China buys very little from outside, it produces whatever it needs.
00:25:41 - Modi's argument is, we need to open the defense industry to the private sector, which previously was not done in India because of government monopoly, you know, that provided whatever little defense, or armaments, you know, you had in India. So now the field has been totally made open. Private players can come in, big defense, you know, contracts are being given to private companies. And Mr. Modi's aim is that over the next 20 years,
00:26:14 - coming from indigenous sources. And these private players, even government players, can enter into, you know, negotiations with foreign foreign partners to produce defense equipments in India under a joint license or under, you know, particular agreements, et cetera, et cetera, technology transfer and, and so on and so forth.
00:26:43 - by 2047, we will see that India's defense acquisition, a large percentage of it maybe not as high as 75%, but close to 50% will come from domestic sources and India's import of defense, items, gradually will come down and India will be producing this closely associated with,
00:27:11 - as the Indian arms manufacturing industries grow, India will also be selling arms to other countries, particularly in the global south. So the Indian OSE cruise missile, for example, which is manufactured jointly with Russia. India has agreed to sell the Bramos cruise missile to the Vietnam and also to the Philippines. the Indian manufactured fighter aircraft,
00:27:44 - with the Philippines, with Egypt, for the sale of that fighter jet, particularly the next generation fighter jet. so on the defense side, I think what we are witnessing is a transformation, the growth of India's defense industry. and, and all of this has been made possible because of changes in the global landscape. As I said, I think India's foreign policy reflects a growing

India's Emergence as a Global Diplomatic Power

00:28:15 - it, it reflects India's, you know, almost the emergence of India's civilizational identity. India, India has a civilizational state like China, like Russia, wants to play a big role in global politics. And, and through foreign policy, you can see India beginning to assert itself, in global politics, particularly in multilateral for, particularly representing
00:28:50 - that the global south as a whole actually faces. And India has been one of the big, you know, countries or one of the big voices demanding, for example, UN reforms that the UN Security Council should be reformed because the way the UN Security Council exists right now, India's argument is this is anachronistic. This does not reflect the power equation of today's world.
00:29:23 - of the UN Security Council, or the UN will basically lose its relevance because, you know, nobody will accept the legitimacy of any decision made by the un, if, if it is not reformed urgently. So India's demand for un reform India's participation in bricks, and in the G 20, you know, India was instrumental. India, and diplomacy was very, very successful in,
00:29:56 - a consensus, and pass a final resolution of the summit, which everybody could agree to. Now, go back one, one year, I mean, in 2022 at the Bali Summit in Indonesia, that consensus was, was not possible to achieve. but within one year in Delhi, India was able to achieve that consensus, and, and, and the summit was able to pass a resolution.
00:30:25 - after that made the argument that India is basically like a bridge between different worlds. It's, it could play a role of a bridge between the western world, Russia, China, and, and the global south as a, as a responsible voice in global politics. And, and that voice is increasingly very, very, confident. It is very, clear in terms of how it sees the world.
00:30:56 - for the last 75 years, which is, we are a sovereign country. We will, at any cost preserve our strategic autonomy. We will not sacrifice our strategic autonomy. So India, therefore always has looked at alliances with suspicion. India doesn't want to join alliances because when you join alliances, you know, you have to follow the dict of others.

India's Strategic Autonomy in Global Alliances

00:31:26 - therefore for itself, the right to make decisions for itself, to speak for the world in a very autonomous kind of way. and even in a grouping like the Quad, for example, you know, if you look at the quad, many people have asked me, you know, is the quad a military alliance? And my answer is no. If you ask the Indians, it's basically a platform where we can sit and we can discuss, you know, almost like, you know, four democracies coming together to,
00:31:56 - but it is not an alliance. And, and India would be loads to join an alliance. So if the quad ever became an alliance, I think the Indians would have a problem with that, particularly with respect to this concept of strategic autonomy. and, and I think this is something that you can see actually being played out in the context of the Ukraine war, where India has consistently refused to criticize and condemn Russia in spite
00:32:29 - and from nato and from the west in general. and Prime Minister Modi, foreign Minister Shankar, repeatedly have said that, you know, we make judgements based on our interest. we, we don't, we don't succumb to pressure. We don't, we don't fall into, we don't have this binary vision of the world. That may be your narrative, that may be your vision, but we choose to define where we stand based on how we analyze the situation.
00:33:00 - And, and this, you know, Indi Indigenization of Defense manufacturing is, is also, a sign of this strategic autonomy that if we don't import from outside, that means we have others will have less control over what we can do with those weapons or in times of crisis, you know, they can restrict supplies or spare parts and, and, and force us to do things that they want. Whereas if we make those weapons ourselves, if we, you know,
00:33:32 - total autonomy over how much we make, how we use them, you know, in the event of a war, you know, you know, to ensure supplies, et cetera, et cetera. so, so I think what you will see is that Indian foreign policy will always be grounded or, or, or anchored by this tremendous consensus in India that we must not sacrifice this concept called
00:33:59 -

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