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Regime resilience in Malaysia and Singapore

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Prominent scholars across the political divide and academic disciplines analyse how the dominant political parties in Malaysia and Singapore, United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and the People’s Action Party (PAP), have stayed in power. Greg Lopez discusses.

Image courtesy of interviewee. March 28, 2024

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The speaker discusses the developments regarding regime resilience in Malaysia and Singapore since the publication of the book they co-edited in 2018, which focused on the political dynamics in both countries.

In Singapore, the People's Action Party (PAP) continues to hold dominance as a one-party state, maintaining control despite a leadership transition. The PAP's ability to manage this transition reflects its strong grip on power, with little expectation of significant change in governance or political structure.

Conversely, Malaysia's political landscape has shifted significantly. The Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, previously believed to be in control, lost power in the 2018 elections, marking a historic shift. Although BN regained influence through a coalition government, it operates in a minority status, indicating a decline in its formerly unassailable position. Despite this change, the structural authoritarian features of Malaysia's governance remain, even under new leadership.

The speaker emphasizes that both countries exhibit authoritarian characteristics with democratic features, suggesting a complexity in their political evolution. In Malaysia, while civil society once flourished, it has been weakened, particularly after the coalition government absorbed its leaders. Concurrently, conservative Islamic civil society is gaining influence, steering the country towards greater conservatism.

Overall, while the PAP in Singapore remains consistent and predictable, Malaysia's political environment is characterized by greater messiness and change, navigating various internal and external challenges as it evolves towards potential democratization. The speaker concludes with a cautiously optimistic view of Malaysia's ability to manage these transitions despite the conservatism that increasingly defines its identity.

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Here are five key points summarizing the video regarding regime resilience in Malaysia and Singapore:

1. **Regime Stability and Control**:
- Singapore's People's Action Party (PAP) remains dominant and fully in control as a one-party state, showcasing stability in its governance. In contrast, Malaysia's United Malays National Organization (UMNO) has faced significant changes, losing its traditional control after the 2018 elections and later returning to power through non-electoral means, illustrating a shift in the country's political landscape.

2. **Authoritarian Features Persist**:
- Both countries exhibit characteristics of authoritarianism despite claims of quasi-democracy or democratic features. Malaysia's political landscape continues to be influenced by its historical governance structure, while Singapore's PAP maintains strict control over political dynamics, highlighting the limited impact of opposition parties.

3. **Leadership Changes and Expectations**:
- Singapore is undergoing its third leadership transition, indicating a managed and curated approach to political leadership selection. The transition from current leadership to the fourth generation involves challenges amid global pressures, but the PAP continues to project stability and predictability in governance.

4. **Civil Society Dynamics**:
- In Malaysia, civil society has been weakened following political transitions, with many leaders being absorbed into the government, resulting in a vacuum of independent civil activism. Conversely, conservative Islamic civil society movements are increasingly becoming more influential. In Singapore, the civil society landscape is dominated by the PAP, with limited space for genuine opposition or challenge to the regime.

5. **Islamic Identity and Governance in Malaysia**:
- The Malaysian regime emphasizes Islam's primacy in governance, shaping the nation's identity and affecting the rights of non-Muslim citizens. There is a growing tension in defining the rights of minorities within the convideo of a conservative Islamic state, leading to pessimism among non-Muslim Malaysians about their future rights and governance.

These points encapsulate the overarching themes of regime resilience, governance dynamics, civil society's role, and the interplay of Islam within Malaysia's political landscape compared to Singapore's managed authoritarianism.

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Here are some key quotes from the video:

1. **On the co-editing of a book**:
- "Bridget Welsh, uh, and myself, um, we co-edited this book... on regime resilience in Malaysia and Singapore."

2. **On regime resilience**:
- "looking at the resilience of both these regimes, uh, represented by AM No in Malaysia and PAP in Singapore."

3. **On the political landscape in Singapore**:
- "PAP remains dominant... PAP remains the regime... PAP Singapore is a one party state with PAP, uh, still fully in control."

4. **On Malaysia's political situation**:
- "the story has, is very different... AM No has lost... It is now part of a coalition government, uh, uh, in our minority status, uh, powerful, but not in control."

5. **On democracy and authoritarianism**:
- "Both these countries, um, undermine the idea that with economic development, democracy would follow suit."
- "they remain authoritarian or, or... democracy with adjectives. So quasi democracy, semi democracy."

6. **On Malaysia's electoral changes**:
- "some have argued that... Malaysia has transitioned towards democracy... However, others... have written that that is not the case."

7. **On the nature of civil society in Singapore**:
- "there is, other than a semblance of opposition in Parliament, there is nothing outside of pa this effectively notice civil society."

8. **On the impact of current leaders**:
- "the leaders that take control... in Malaysia... are no different from AM No."

9. **On the global challenges faced by Singapore and Malaysia**:
- "the global challenges are there, but Malaysia is messy... Singapore is more curated."

10. **On the authoritarian nature of leadership transitions**:
- "it only lends to this idea that this is indeed an authoritarian regime that is determining who will become the leader, not the people of Singapore."

These quotes reflect critical themes in the video regarding political resilience, democracy vs. authoritarianism, and the implications of leadership in both Malaysia and Singapore.

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP:LOCAL=00:00:00.000,MPEGTS=900000

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Bridget Welsh,

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and myself, we co-edited this book,

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on regime resilience in, in Malaysia and Singapore.

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Um, it was a collection of, articles

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or, you know, intellectual, effort by various

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experts in the region.

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Uh, looking at the, resilience of, of both these

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regimes, represented by AM No in Malaysia

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and PAP in Singapore.

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Uh, we published the book in 2018.

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Um, lots of lots of things have changed then.

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Uh, lots remain the same.

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Now in, in Singapore, PAP remains dominant.

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Uh, PAP remains the regime.

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Uh, you know, PAP Singapore is a one party state

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with PAP, still fully in control.

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Uh, there are some issues that I'll talk about, in, in,

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in relation to its leadership transition.

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Uh, but PAP remains fully in control of, Singapore,

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in Malaysia.

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The story has, is very different.

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Um, I know

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which we thought was the regime, in Malaysia

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has proven to be not the case.

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Uh, despite being, like PAP the party

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that has been in control of Malaysia since its independence.

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Uh, ANU is no longer, in control of Malaysia.

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It is, it, it lost, the, the historic, election,

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and then came back to power through backdoor,

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not through an election.

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Um, and then it is now part

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of a coalition government, with,

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in our minority status, powerful, but not in control.

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So, so this is, in short an overview

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of the developments,

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since 2018 when we published the book

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Malaysia and Singapore.

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Um, would you

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and I, if you look at it from sort of a democratization,

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perspective, it much has been written about it,

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because both these, both these con countries,

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sort of, undermine, the idea that

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with, with economic development,

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democracy would, would follow suit.

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Um, they, they remain authoritarian or, or,

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or what, Meredith, we will, will say,

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democracy with adjectives.

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So quasi democracy, semi democracy,

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so essentially, not,

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you would say not, not solid, not solid democracy, as in

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where, where both parties

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or competing parties, accept,

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that elections are the, the, the, the way to, to determine,

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government, both Malaysia

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and Singapore fall into, yeah, what,

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what would be called authoritarian regimes with fe

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with Democratic features.

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Um, now, some have argued that, with am nos loss,

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in the 2018 general election, that, that there,

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that Malaysia has transitioned towards democracy

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because the incumbent, has,

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has been removed from government through an election.

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However, others, Bridget Welsh,

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Gary Rodden,

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Kai Oswald, many others have written that

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that is not the case,

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because the, the authoritarian features of, of Malaysia,

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remains.

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So, although, AB no has been removed from government,

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but the, but what makes Malaysia authoritarian,

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its system of, government governance, remains,

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intact with just new players, filling in the seat.

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Um, so yeah, this would fit into the, the, the,

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the literature of understanding Democratic transition,

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understanding authoritarian governments,

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especially in this Southeast Asian region, which is full of,

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authoritarian regimes

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in regards to Singapore.

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Um, as I mentioned, nothing much has, has really changed.

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Um, PAP, the, people's action parties

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is still firmly in control of the state.

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And a, it is such a dominant party that,

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even when they lose a few seats,

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or a GRC, just of a loss

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of one GRC is considered a shock,

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an unexpected outcome.

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So that's how strong the, the, you know, PAP is,

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that even a slight fall from popularity,

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you know, from 65% to 60% popular,

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what is considered a major problem for,

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For, for the regime.

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Um, so nothing has really changed,

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in PAP,

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what they are facing now is the third leadership transition.

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So, the first generation LI one U,

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to the second generation, go Choong,

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and then go choong to, to Le Lung,

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and now from, so Leashing Lu to, Lawrence,

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Lawrence, so the four, the four, the 4G.

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So, but it's such a, a curated affair.

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Uh, it only lends to this, this idea

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that this is indeed in an authoritarian regime that is

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determining who will become the leader, not the people of

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Singapore, who, who, who chooses,

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who they want to lead.

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It's here is the leader,

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and you have to, you know, accept it.

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Um, so the, and, and,

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and the, the challenge is whether the,

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the 4G can can live up to the expectations,

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of the previous, leadership.

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Um, although times have certainly

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changed, the increasing interconnectedness,

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Singapore as part of a, of a global system,

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the impact of this global system, as we've witnessed

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to COVID-19,

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but also the subprime crisis, the, the, the, the war,

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the Russia, Ukraine War, how all of this

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remote issues can very quickly impact,

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an open economy like Singapore.

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So the challenges that, the,

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the four generation leaders will have

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to face are certainly far more complex, the rise of chin

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or the, the reemergence of China as a,

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potentially a new superpower,

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that is taking on the us.

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Um, and Singapore's position, both Singapore

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and malicious position in this region, and,

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and how they navigate in some ways, all challenges.

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And we, we had the Cold War, which, you know,

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one U had to, the first generation had to navigate,

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increase, after World War, post-colonial,

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issues after World War ii,

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several decades of peace and stability,

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and then now potentially,

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major issues.

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Uh, so the 4G will have to deal with this,

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same case in Malaysia.

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Uh, the, the global challenges are there,

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but Malaysia is, is messy, in that sense.

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Uh, Singapore is more curated

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or it, it, it's able to hide the messiness,

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which, which, which just proves how dominant,

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the regime is that it's able to hide the, it's

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all the underbelly of, the issues that they,

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they are facing Malaysia, not so,

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so it's, so the regime in Malaysia is not a political party.

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It's, it's, I I conceptualized this as a way

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that Malaysia is supposed to be, so primacy

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of Islam, a particular understanding

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of the social contract.

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Uh, and therefore it is not necessary

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to have a political party to represent it like Singapore.

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Um, Singapore is essentially news project,

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whereas Malaysia, it's an understanding of an establishment

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of what Malaysia should be,

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and that establishment is the regime

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and that establishment, which includes the,

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the royal houses, the Islamic,

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leadership has an idea of what Malaysia should be,

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and whoever wins government, must

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accept this including, the Democratic action Party,

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secular based, one could say modern,

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sort of intellectuals, professionals.

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Uh, they too, they are the strongest party in this.

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They have been the strongest party since 2018

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in the coalition government.

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Yet their views mean nothing

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because they represent, essentially,

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non-Muslims.

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Uh, and, and, and,

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and sort of, sort of the modern Malaysia, which

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doesn't really have any say in the way Malaysia

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is conceptualized.

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So, so the leaders that take control, so in Malaysia,

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currently Anai ihi, whose whole,

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20 year attempt

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to become Prime Minister was premised on this

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reform sea movement.

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Now that he is in power, he is no different

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from Amna.

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No. Um, and he may talk the talk about,

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liberal trying to, to navigate liberal

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liberal ideas or, or liberal values.

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But at the core, the, you know, it's still

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that idea that Malaysia is a conservative,

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Islamic country that provides,

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some rights to non-Muslims.

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And its authoritarian features remain.

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Um, in fact, some of the, reforms that,

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prime Minister Abra Annu Ibrahim has made just replicates

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or strengthens the, the authoritarian nature of the state.

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Okay? With, with Singapore, nothing has really changed.

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The, the Workers party appeared

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to be, appeared to have gained some,

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some mileage, especially during the, the,

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when the, the Singaporean economy was,

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was under a certain challenge, but,

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but it's essentially been neutralized.

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Um, you know, its effectiveness is,

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is like no different than in previous decades.

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Um, you know, Mr.

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JB Jna is, was probably just as effective

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as the Workers party.

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So, although they may be, they have won more seats,

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the GRC and so forth,

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but the effect is, is, is almost,

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is negligent.

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Uh, the government, the PAP still dictates

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the nature of, of Singapore.

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Um, so that a bit more louder, or,

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or the Parliament is a bit more boisterous,

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but the, the net effect is, there,

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there is no changes.

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Malaysia, interestingly, and,

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and civil society in, in Singapore, you know,

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philanthropic works.

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Yes, there are certainly individuals who challenged,

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the, the system or the regime,

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but, they're very quickly shut down.

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And, and the dominance of PAP is

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best reflected in that there is, other than

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a semblance of opposition in Parliament, there is nothing

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outside of pa this effectively notice civil society,

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Malaysia is, is, it, for Malaysia, it is ironic,

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it is really ironic.

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So the civil society that, that grew,

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with strength since, opera along 1987,

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where, you know, many politicians

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and civil society leaders were,

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were arrested under the Internal Security Act,

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and which grew strength to strength,

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underpinning the reform movement that,

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prime Minister Abra set on as soon as,

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gave the, the alternative,

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paan Harapan one government, they absorbed many

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of the civil society leaders into government

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and effectively, effectively neutralized, civil society.

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Uh, so that, so that when Paan Harapan first was,

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there was an internal coup, that led

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to the demise of, paan Harapan, let's say 1.0,

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which brought back, am no, into power.

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Uh, this civil society leaders

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did not have a place to go, they couldn't go back to,

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to their organizations.

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Um, and, and hence now with Paan Harapan 2.0,

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an Abraham's, coalition winning the election again,

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what we've seen over the past five years, five

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to seven years, is that there is a vacuum in, in,

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in civil society, per se, which was one of the strongest

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civil society movement,

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is no longer the f it is, per se, the,

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the electoral reform movement.

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Uh, it's no longer a force that it is, let,

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it was, many other civil society, human rights,

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lost its leaders, no longer.

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Now, what's interesting is Islamic Civil Society is becoming

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increasingly powerful.

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Uh, and these are conservative Islamic civil society,

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movements, becoming more,

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more demanding in, in, in what the state should do,

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and the state, the political parties are responding to them,

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and, and moving Malaysia further towards,

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Islamic conservatism.

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So liberal democratic or,

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or groups that pro promoted,

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lib progressive politics.

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Uh, ironically when,

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the Opposition Coalition won government,

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it undermined, civil society, in Malaysia.

17:34.145 --> 17:36.445
So this is an interesting question, which

17:36.965 --> 17:38.565
I get asked often.

17:39.975 --> 17:43.195
Now, if you, if you are interested in a,

17:43.935 --> 17:47.515
in a well-managed state, where if,

17:48.425 --> 17:52.805
whether it's predictability, and,

17:52.825 --> 17:56.365
and if you worked hard, you could have a better future.

17:57.575 --> 17:58.745
Yeah, I think Singapore

17:58.765 --> 18:01.065
and Malaysia are all right in that sense.

18:01.245 --> 18:03.345
Um,

18:06.025 --> 18:09.335
Singapore's, whole narrative,

18:09.625 --> 18:13.495
especially in this leadership transition transition is that

18:15.015 --> 18:16.195
the people of Singapore

18:16.575 --> 18:20.755
and the international community will see more of the same.

18:21.575 --> 18:25.075
Um, since last November,

18:25.145 --> 18:29.155
when Premier Prime Minister Ung said

18:29.155 --> 18:33.755
that he would hand over the leadership of Singapore to,

18:34.055 --> 18:37.435
the 4G, Mr. Lawrence Chong,

18:37.855 --> 18:39.915
by November, 2024 this year.

18:40.215 --> 18:44.225
Um, so it could be that he

18:44.805 --> 18:49.305
allows the 4G to lead PAP into the next election,

18:49.725 --> 18:53.025
or it could be that he leads the, PAP to an election

18:53.025 --> 18:54.145
and then hands it over.

18:55.165 --> 18:59.995
But the fact that that, political party can say

19:01.455 --> 19:05.155
how we are going to make this transition, it's, that's

19:05.155 --> 19:06.755
how strong the regime is.

19:07.295 --> 19:10.785
Um, but it's also,

19:12.605 --> 19:15.145
it, it shows or it's telling everyone, look,

19:16.095 --> 19:17.555
you can expect the same.

19:17.935 --> 19:21.555
So if you, if you think Singapore is a great country,

19:22.135 --> 19:23.475
you can be optimistic.

19:24.575 --> 19:26.435
Um, and I'm sure many,

19:26.865 --> 19:30.355
many people think Singapore is a great country,

19:32.125 --> 19:35.305
but if for some reason you're pessimistic about Singapore,

19:35.605 --> 19:39.545
then you will continue to remain pessimistic

19:39.545 --> 19:43.265
because there is unlikely to be any changes,

19:43.445 --> 19:47.465
and we can't, I can't see anything coming out of left field

19:47.605 --> 19:51.735
to that could bring about a change now with,

19:52.555 --> 19:54.095
so, so that's the Singapore case.

19:54.155 --> 19:56.335
Now from Malaysia, it's a bit more interesting.

19:56.395 --> 19:58.495
Uh, it's messiness also makes it

19:58.495 --> 20:00.055
more interesting than Singapore.

20:01.775 --> 20:05.455
Singapore is, you know, like a good Swiss clock.

20:05.675 --> 20:08.415
Uh, you, you, you know what to expect.

20:09.965 --> 20:14.625
So Malaysia is, yeah, it's, I guess it's trying to,

20:16.125 --> 20:18.625
it was always a conservative,

20:20.375 --> 20:22.155
Muslim majority country.

20:22.935 --> 20:26.395
Um, there was an idea of

20:26.935 --> 20:30.435
how this would work out with, with non-Muslims

20:30.745 --> 20:32.755
that were also citizens of Malaysia.

20:33.855 --> 20:37.715
Um, so increasingly, I mean, we've seen over the years,

20:37.965 --> 20:42.755
increasing conservatism, that has led to a,

20:42.855 --> 20:47.285
a more stringent definition of the idea of Malaysia,

20:47.355 --> 20:52.225
that this is indeed, an Islamic state,

20:53.565 --> 20:56.185
an Islamic state that takes care of the rights

20:56.285 --> 20:57.705
of, minorities.

20:58.565 --> 21:01.505
Um, and what Malaysians are, tr Malaysians are,

21:01.505 --> 21:04.425
especially non-Muslims are trying to figure out is, is

21:04.425 --> 21:06.585
what are those rights that you will protect?

21:07.405 --> 21:09.105
Um,

21:09.325 --> 21:12.915
and yeah, the general view

21:13.095 --> 21:15.755
for non-Muslims are, is pessimistic.

21:16.455 --> 21:19.915
Um, but,

21:20.175 --> 21:23.195
but if, if you are an, an observer,

21:25.005 --> 21:29.515
just looking at Malaysia, I think,

21:30.375 --> 21:33.825
it, it is managing transition,

21:34.645 --> 21:39.575
the challenges, of trans transitioning,

21:40.005 --> 21:44.655
from a, a middle income country to a high income country,

21:45.635 --> 21:48.615
the challenges

21:48.635 --> 21:52.895
of an increasingly conservative, Islamic group.

21:53.815 --> 21:55.295
I think it's managing it well.

21:56.295 --> 22:00.495
Um, it, you know, the judiciary still

22:01.545 --> 22:04.855
interprets the Constitution,

22:06.005 --> 22:07.125
I would say in its origin.

22:07.305 --> 22:12.165
So the basic structure of the, the constitution of,

22:12.265 --> 22:13.285
you know, the rights

22:13.305 --> 22:16.245
and responsibilities of all citizens, it,

22:16.265 --> 22:17.525
it still protects it.

22:18.865 --> 22:23.845
So, so I'm optimistic, in that sense that,

22:25.995 --> 22:29.755
Malaysia will not become a basket case, as, as

22:29.935 --> 22:32.675
as many predict, it,

22:32.865 --> 22:37.235
it's just a developing country trying to figure out,

22:38.345 --> 22:42.635
competing interests both domestically and internationally.

22:43.375 --> 22:46.435
Uh, and I think given that,

22:47.055 --> 22:50.835
and the messiness that is involved, it, it is still managing

22:50.865 --> 22:51.875
that transition.

22:52.585 --> 22:52.875
Well.

Regime Resilience in Malaysia and Singapore

00:00:00 - Bridget Welsh, and myself, we co-edited this book, on regime resilience in, in Malaysia and Singapore. it was a collection of, articles or, you know, intellectual, effort by various experts in the region. looking at the, resilience of, of both these regimes, represented by AM No in Malaysia
00:00:33 - we published the book in 2018. lots of lots of things have changed then. lots remain the same. Now in, in Singapore, PAP remains dominant. PAP remains the regime. you know, PAP Singapore is a one party state with PAP, still fully in control.
00:01:07 - in relation to its leadership transition. but PAP remains fully in control of, Singapore, in Malaysia. The story has, is very different. I know which we thought was the regime, in Malaysia has proven to be not the case. despite being, like PAP the party
00:01:39 - ANU is no longer, in control of Malaysia. It is, it, it lost, the, the historic, election, and then came back to power through backdoor, not through an election. and then it is now part of a coalition government, with,
00:02:11 - So, so this is, in short an overview of the developments, since 2018 when we published the book Malaysia and Singapore. would you and I, if you look at it from sort of a democratization, perspective, it much has been written about it, because both these, both these con countries,
00:02:44 - with, with economic development, democracy would, would follow suit. they, they remain authoritarian or, or, or what, Meredith, we will, will say, democracy with adjectives. So quasi democracy, semi democracy, so essentially, not,

Democratic Features in Authoritarian Regimes

00:03:18 - where, where both parties or competing parties, accept, that elections are the, the, the, the way to, to determine, government, both Malaysia and Singapore fall into, yeah, what, what would be called authoritarian regimes with fe with Democratic features. now, some have argued that, with am nos loss,
00:03:52 - that Malaysia has transitioned towards democracy because the incumbent, has, has been removed from government through an election. However, others, Bridget Welsh, Gary Rodden, Kai Oswald, many others have written that that is not the case,
00:04:24 - remains. So, although, AB no has been removed from government, but the, but what makes Malaysia authoritarian, its system of, government governance, remains, intact with just new players, filling in the seat. so yeah, this would fit into the, the, the, the literature of understanding Democratic transition,
00:04:55 - especially in this Southeast Asian region, which is full of, authoritarian regimes in regards to Singapore. as I mentioned, nothing much has, has really changed. PAP, the, people's action parties is still firmly in control of the state. And a, it is such a dominant party that,
00:05:29 - or a GRC, just of a loss of one GRC is considered a shock, an unexpected outcome. So that's how strong the, the, you know, PAP is, that even a slight fall from popularity, you know, from 65% to 60% popular, what is considered a major problem for,
00:05:58 - so nothing has really changed, in PAP, what they are facing now is the third leadership transition. So, the first generation LI one U, to the second generation, go Choong, and then go choong to, to Le Lung, and now from, so Leashing Lu to, Lawrence,

Leadership Challenges in Authoritarian Regimes

00:06:34 - So, but it's such a, a curated affair. it only lends to this, this idea that this is indeed in an authoritarian regime that is determining who will become the leader, not the people of Singapore, who, who, who chooses, who they want to lead. It's here is the leader,
00:07:04 - so the, and, and, and the, the challenge is whether the, the 4G can can live up to the expectations, of the previous, leadership. although times have certainly changed, the increasing interconnectedness, Singapore as part of a, of a global system,
00:07:39 - to COVID-19, but also the subprime crisis, the, the, the, the war, the Russia, Ukraine War, how all of this remote issues can very quickly impact, an open economy like Singapore. So the challenges that, the, the four generation leaders will have to face are certainly far more complex, the rise of chin
00:08:10 - potentially a new superpower, that is taking on the us. and Singapore's position, both Singapore and malicious position in this region, and, and how they navigate in some ways, all challenges. And we, we had the Cold War, which, you know, one U had to, the first generation had to navigate,
00:08:41 - issues after World War ii, several decades of peace and stability, and then now potentially, major issues. so the 4G will have to deal with this, same case in Malaysia. the, the global challenges are there, but Malaysia is, is messy, in that sense.
00:09:10 - or it, it, it's able to hide the messiness, which, which, which just proves how dominant, the regime is that it's able to hide the, it's all the underbelly of, the issues that they, they are facing Malaysia, not so, so it's, so the regime in Malaysia is not a political party. It's, it's, I I conceptualized this as a way

Exploring Malaysia's Political and Social Dynamics

00:09:48 - of Islam, a particular understanding of the social contract. and therefore it is not necessary to have a political party to represent it like Singapore. Singapore is essentially news project, whereas Malaysia, it's an understanding of an establishment of what Malaysia should be,
00:10:17 - and that establishment, which includes the, the royal houses, the Islamic, leadership has an idea of what Malaysia should be, and whoever wins government, must accept this including, the Democratic action Party, secular based, one could say modern, sort of intellectuals, professionals.
00:10:52 - They have been the strongest party since 2018 in the coalition government. Yet their views mean nothing because they represent, essentially, non-Muslims. and, and, and, and sort of, sort of the modern Malaysia, which doesn't really have any say in the way Malaysia
00:11:21 - So, so the leaders that take control, so in Malaysia, currently Anai ihi, whose whole, 20 year attempt to become Prime Minister was premised on this reform sea movement. Now that he is in power, he is no different from Amna. No. and he may talk the talk about, liberal trying to, to navigate liberal
00:11:57 - But at the core, the, you know, it's still that idea that Malaysia is a conservative, Islamic country that provides, some rights to non-Muslims. And its authoritarian features remain. in fact, some of the, reforms that, prime Minister Abra Annu Ibrahim has made just replicates
00:12:30 - Okay? With, with Singapore, nothing has really changed. The, the Workers party appeared to be, appeared to have gained some, some mileage, especially during the, the, when the, the Singaporean economy was, was under a certain challenge, but, but it's essentially been neutralized.

Continued Dominance and Civil Society Challenges

00:13:02 - is like no different than in previous decades. you know, Mr. JB Jna is, was probably just as effective as the Workers party. So, although they may be, they have won more seats, the GRC and so forth, but the effect is, is, is almost, is negligent. the government, the PAP still dictates
00:13:34 - so that a bit more louder, or, or the Parliament is a bit more boisterous, but the, the net effect is, there, there is no changes. Malaysia, interestingly, and, and civil society in, in Singapore, you know, philanthropic works. Yes, there are certainly individuals who challenged,
00:14:06 - but, they're very quickly shut down. And, and the dominance of PAP is best reflected in that there is, other than a semblance of opposition in Parliament, there is nothing outside of pa this effectively notice civil society, Malaysia is, is, it, for Malaysia, it is ironic,
00:14:35 - So the civil society that, that grew, with strength since, opera along 1987, where, you know, many politicians and civil society leaders were, were arrested under the Internal Security Act, and which grew strength to strength, underpinning the reform movement that, prime Minister Abra set on as soon as,
00:15:11 - paan Harapan one government, they absorbed many of the civil society leaders into government and effectively, effectively neutralized, civil society. so that, so that when Paan Harapan first was, there was an internal coup, that led to the demise of, paan Harapan, let's say 1.0,
00:15:43 - this civil society leaders did not have a place to go, they couldn't go back to, to their organizations. and, and hence now with Paan Harapan 2.0, an Abraham's, coalition winning the election again, what we've seen over the past five years, five to seven years, is that there is a vacuum in, in,

Shifts in Civil Society and Governance Dynamics

00:16:15 - civil society movement, is no longer the f it is, per se, the, the electoral reform movement. it's no longer a force that it is, let, it was, many other civil society, human rights, lost its leaders, no longer. Now, what's interesting is Islamic Civil Society is becoming
00:16:44 - and these are conservative Islamic civil society, movements, becoming more, more demanding in, in, in what the state should do, and the state, the political parties are responding to them, and, and moving Malaysia further towards, Islamic conservatism. So liberal democratic or, or groups that pro promoted,
00:17:18 - ironically when, the Opposition Coalition won government, it undermined, civil society, in Malaysia. So this is an interesting question, which I get asked often. Now, if you, if you are interested in a, in a well-managed state, where if,
00:17:52 - and if you worked hard, you could have a better future. Yeah, I think Singapore and Malaysia are all right in that sense. Singapore's, whole narrative, especially in this leadership transition transition is that the people of Singapore and the international community will see more of the same.
00:18:25 - when Premier Prime Minister Ung said that he would hand over the leadership of Singapore to, the 4G, Mr. Lawrence Chong, by November, 2024 this year. so it could be that he allows the 4G to lead PAP into the next election, or it could be that he leads the, PAP to an election
00:18:55 - But the fact that that, political party can say how we are going to make this transition, it's, that's how strong the regime is. but it's also, it, it shows or it's telling everyone, look, you can expect the same. So if you, if you think Singapore is a great country, you can be optimistic.

Contrasting Political Futures in Singapore and Malaysia

00:19:26 - many people think Singapore is a great country, but if for some reason you're pessimistic about Singapore, then you will continue to remain pessimistic because there is unlikely to be any changes, and we can't, I can't see anything coming out of left field to that could bring about a change now with, so, so that's the Singapore case. Now from Malaysia, it's a bit more interesting.
00:19:58 - more interesting than Singapore. Singapore is, you know, like a good Swiss clock. you, you, you know what to expect. So Malaysia is, yeah, it's, I guess it's trying to, it was always a conservative, Muslim majority country. there was an idea of
00:20:30 - that were also citizens of Malaysia. so increasingly, I mean, we've seen over the years, increasing conservatism, that has led to a, a more stringent definition of the idea of Malaysia, that this is indeed, an Islamic state, an Islamic state that takes care of the rights of, minorities.
00:21:01 - especially non-Muslims are trying to figure out is, is what are those rights that you will protect? and yeah, the general view for non-Muslims are, is pessimistic. but, but if, if you are an, an observer, just looking at Malaysia, I think,
00:21:34 - the challenges, of trans transitioning, from a, a middle income country to a high income country, the challenges of an increasingly conservative, Islamic group. I think it's managing it well. it, you know, the judiciary still
00:22:06 - I would say in its origin. So the basic structure of the, the constitution of, you know, the rights and responsibilities of all citizens, it, it still protects it. So, so I'm optimistic, in that sense that, Malaysia will not become a basket case, as, as as many predict, it,

Managing Domestic and International Transitions

00:22:52 - competing interests both domestically and internationally. and I think given that, and the messiness that is involved, it, it is still managing that transition. Well.

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