Syria Crisis: Al-Jolani’s Leadership

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Syria Crisis: Power Dynamics, Justice, and Reconstruction in Post-Assad Syria

Rainbow Murray | Queen Mary University of London

How could Al-Jolani’s leadership shape Syria’s future, and what challenges might HTS face in gaining broader governance support and international recognition?

Image courtesy of interviewee. December 9, 2024

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This video discusses the shifting balance of power in Syria, particularly following Israeli airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah forces, which had previously maintained significant military influence in the region. The weakening of these forces has allowed Turkey to attempt to negotiate with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who refuses to engage, believing he will receive full support from his allies.

Turkey's inaction and possible oversight concerning rebel plans in northern Syria contributed to unexpected advances by rebel forces, especially in Aleppo. This video also notes the deteriorating morale and capabilities of Syrian regime forces due to prolonged conflict and sanctions, which left them unable to effectively respond to rebel offensives.

As the Syrian regime sought assistance from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah amidst its struggles, those parties were preoccupied elsewhere, leading to a significant shift favoring Turkey in the regional dynamics.

The narrative also touches upon Abbu Mohamed Joi, a Syrian figure involved in the insurgency post-2003, highlighting his journey from joining Syrian rebels against U.S. forces to later conflicts involving groups like ISIS and the current situation in Idlib. This video outlines internal divisions among rebel factions and the importance of pragmatism in dealing with both local and international actors, given the complex political landscape and ongoing Western sanctions.

Overall, the summary reveals the intricate power dynamics in Syria, the implications of external and internal conflicts, and the challenges of rebuilding and negotiating peace in a fractured region.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Shift in Balance of Power**: The video discusses a shift in the balance of power in Syria following Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Hezbollah, which reduced their military influence in the region and allowed Turkey to expand its presence and seek negotiations with Assad.

2. **Turkey's Role and Rebel Operations**: Turkey is portrayed as having turned a blind eye to the plans of Syrian rebels in the north, indicating that they were aware of military operations but may have underestimated the rebels’ capabilities and goals. The weak state of the Syrian regime's forces led to unexpected rebel successes.

3. **Weakness of the Syrian Regime**: The Syrian regime has shown a decline in morale and effectiveness due to years of conflict, leading to a fragmentation of their loyal base and diminishing support from allies like Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran, which were preoccupied with other commitments.

4. **Emergence of Abbu Mohamed Jolani**: The video mentions Abbu Mohamed Jolani, his background, and his evolution as a military figure in Syria after having fought in Iraq. He has navigated complex relationships with various factions, including a refusal to merge with ISIS due to ideological differences.

5. **Challenges of Governance in Idlib**: Jolani has established a stronghold in Idlib with Jabhat al-Nusra. However, there are questions about whether the governance model he has created in this small region can be expanded to the rest of Syria, particularly given the presence of other rebel factions and the political landscape of the country.

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Here are some key quotes from the video you :

1. **On the Balance of Power:**
- "Obviously, there was a balance of power, that changed. It changed as a result of the Israeli airstrikes against Iran and against Hezbollah."

2. **Turkey's Role:**
- "Turkey... tried to put up the vacuum, and he tried to start negotiating with Assad, and Assad refused that."
- "As a result of that... Turkey has kept a blind eye to what the rebels were planning to do in northern Syria."

3. **Syrian Regime's Weakness:**
- "The Syrian regime forces like just appeared so weak, their morale was so low."
- "...the core loyal base of the Syrian regime has been actually fatigued as a result of many years of war."

4. **Surprise at Rebel Success:**
- "Everyone was surprised, mainly the rebels actually, how the regime forces collapsed in, in Aleppo and how the progress continued."

5. **External Support for the Regime:**
- "When the regime was asking... for assistance from the countries and the parties like Hezbollah... it all fell on deaf ears."
- "Russia is occupied with the war in Ukraine. Iran military presence has been diminished as a result of the Israeli air strikes."

6. **Historical Convideo:**
- "After the Americans invaded Iraq in 2003, the Syrian opposition groups that time that were actually more or less organized by the Syrian regime."
- "The regime... facilitated the crossing of hundred and probably thousands of Syrian fighters from Syria to Iraq in 2003."

7. **Jolani and ISIS Conflict:**
- "There was as well, like, obviously kind of a difference about the conservative ideology."
- "The Islamic state of Iraq and Syria, ISIS... adopted a very brutal approach with the citizens, with the local people of their reserve."

8. **Future of Governance in Idlib:**
- "The model that he built in Idlib... we are not sure whether it can be replicated elsewhere in Syria or not."
- "All these factors would... require him to become more pragmatic in how he deals."

These quotes encapsulate the main themes of the video, including shifts in military power, the dynamics of negotiation in the Syrian conflict, and the historical convideo affecting current events.

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Obviously, there was a balance of power,

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that changed.

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Uh, it changed as a result of the Israeli,

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airstrikes against Iran and against Hezbollah.

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Uh, these two forces had major military influence in Syria,

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and their,

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military influence in Syria has been diminished.

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And as a result of that, Turkey, more

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or less tried to put up the vacuum,

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and he tried to start negotiating with Assad,

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and Assad refused that.

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He thought that he's gonna get the full pack up from the

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Iranians, from Hezbollah, from the Russians.

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Um, and he refused basically, to sit at the table

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of negotiations with the Turkish,

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and have a deal with them about the future of Syria.

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And as a result of that,

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and this is kind of my own argument, is that,

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Turkey has kept a blind eye to what the rebels were planning

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to do in, in northern Syria.

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Uh, they were aware, obviously, of,

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of their military operation.

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Uh, I would, I would doubt

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that Turkey would not have information about them preparing

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for this offensive, but obviously it wasn't expected.

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I don't think Turkey expected that they will be able

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to take over all of Syria.

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I think, the target was probably, some parts of,

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of the countryside of Adlib, some parts

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of the countryside of El Lippo.

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But then, the Syrian regime forces like just appeared

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so weak, their morale was so low.

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Um, and obviously, I conducted some research recently

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that explains how the core, loyal base

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of the Syrian regime has been actually fatigued as a result

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of many years of war.

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And the sanctions that have been imposed in the country

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as well, like over the past few years, that have more

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or less kind of weakened them, impoverished them,

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and they were not really willing to fight,

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again, for the regime.

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Um, so everyone was surprised,

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mainly the rebels actually, how

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the regime forces collapsed in, in a lippo

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and how the progress continued.

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And when the regime was asking, obviously

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for all the assistance, from the countries and,

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and the parties like Hezbollah that held them at some point

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of time, it all fell on deaf ears.

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All these parties were not able really

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to get involved in the conflict.

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Russia, Russia is occupied with the war in Ukraine.

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Uh, Iran military presence has been diminished as a result

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of the Israeli airstrike.

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And Hezbollah wouldn't be able to send the troops to Syria

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because it was already consumed by the conflict in Lebanon.

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And that's what we see the balance of power changed

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to the favor of Turkey, more or less.

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Abbu Mohamed Joi is, originally from, Syria,

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from the countryside of Damascus.

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Uh, after the Americans, invaded Iraq in 2003,

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he joined, the Syrian, rebels,

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or the Syrian opposition groups that time

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that were actually more

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or less organized by the Syrian regime.

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Funnily enough,

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after 2003, the Syrian regime itself was organizing camps,

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for people to go and,

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and join the fight against the, what the

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Regime described at that time, the American occupation

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and invasion of Iraq.

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And obviously the Syria regime was concerned about its own

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fate and about its own destiny, that it'll be next if,

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after the fall of Sadan Hussein's regime.

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So I'm not saying necessarily

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that he had like direct connections to the regime,

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but the regime, more

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or less facilitated the crossing of hundred

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and probably thousands of Syrian fighters from Syria

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to Iraq in 2003.

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And Muhammad Jordani was among them.

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So he joined, the insurgency,

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the Iraqi insurgency against the Americans.

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He was later captured by, the Americans.

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Uh, he was in prison actually,

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there for, for a few years.

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He was, later on released by the Americans.

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And then the Syrian Civil War, more

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or less, has created that vacuum

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of power in the eastern part of Syria,

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which is just close to Iraq.

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So the leader of the Islamic state of Iraq,

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which sent him from Iraq to Syria to establish a branch,

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in de resort, particularly in the town of Hai in,

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in the countryside of de Resort.

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Um, and then at a later stage,

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obviously there was a clash between, Jolani

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and between Albert daddy.

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Um, and it was, it had to do with the fact actually that,

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Albert daddy wanted, a Nostra to become part

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of the Islamic state of Iraq and Syria,

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and he refused that merge.

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There was as well, like, obviously kind

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of a difference about, the conservative ideology.

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The way, the Islamic state, of Iraq

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and Syria had dealt with the local population.

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As we all know, the Islamic state of Iraq

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and Syria, isis, which existed in their resort to start

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with, adopted a very brutal approach with the citizens,

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with the local people of, of their reserve.

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And SRA did not want to adopt that.

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So there was a clash between them.

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And the two grow groups have been engaged actually

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for a long war that lasted for a few months, which led to

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that death of thousands of people.

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Uh, eventually Jamat Nora was,

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displaced from their resort

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and had to leave, their resort

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and moved to Adlib, where established itself as kind of a,

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a stronghold, for the group, which,

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obviously developed to what we see now.

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Um, at a later stage, jab Nostra started

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to basically disassociate itself, more

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or so from Al-Qaida, change its name.

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And even as we know, like in a recent interview, the leader

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of the group, itself said that he, kind

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of changed himself and obviously,

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I guess identities changed when he went there.

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Uh, he was a very young person.

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Uh, he could have probably been brainwashed at that time

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by kind of the clerics that had connections with the regime.

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Um, so he still obviously had that kind

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of Islamic ideology there.

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Uh, kind of particularly believing

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that Sharia should be kind of,

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Uh, the dominant low in, in the future state of Syria.

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I'm, I'm sure he still has these, kind of points

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of view when it comes to the relationship between Islam

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and the state, but he doesn't have the same,

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conservative points of view, about the relationship

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between the state and society that ISIS had,

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which alienated isis,

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and basically, made,

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made the local population revolt against it as well.

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I think he's, he's open to working with,

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with external actors.

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Obviously there, there are a lot of things to be seen about.

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Um, what is he going to do,

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because the model that he built in Idlib,

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which is a small place,

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we are not sure whether it can be replicated

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elsewhere in Syria or not.

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Like Idlib is so small in comparison to the rest of Syria.

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There are other rebel factions now

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that are involved in the conflict.

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We have factions that are more from the south, from,

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from southern Syria, from Dara towards, Damascus.

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Uh, there is a Syrian national army as well, which is backed

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by Turkey in, the north of Syria.

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So it's not that he is now ruling a small contained,

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geographical area, like Adlib.

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There are so many other things that he would need

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to take into consideration.

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I would say probably that all these factors would need

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would, would make him more pragmatic, would require him

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to become more pragmatic in how he deals

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with internal actors and external actors.

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Because in the end, Syria is, still under

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sanctions from Western states.

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Uh, if the country want, like, wants kind of

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to rebuild again, then he needs to improve relationship

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with the West in order to, to start the process

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of rebuilding.

Shifts in Syrian Power Dynamics and Turkey's Role

00:00:00 - Obviously, there was a balance of power, that changed. it changed as a result of the Israeli, airstrikes against Iran and against Hezbollah. these two forces had major military influence in Syria, and their, military influence in Syria has been diminished. And as a result of that, Turkey, more or less tried to put up the vacuum, and he tried to start negotiating with Assad, and Assad refused that. He thought that he's gonna get the full pack up from the Iranians, from Hezbollah, from the Russians.

00:00:34 - of negotiations with the Turkish, and have a deal with them about the future of Syria. And as a result of that, and this is kind of my own argument, is that, Turkey has kept a blind eye to what the rebels were planning to do in, in northern Syria. they were aware, obviously, of, of their military operation. I would, I would doubt that Turkey would not have information about them preparing for this offensive, but obviously it wasn't expected.

00:01:07 - to take over all of Syria. I think, the target was probably, some parts of, of the countryside of Adlib, some parts of the countryside of El Lippo. But then, the Syrian regime forces like just appeared so weak, their morale was so low. and obviously, I conducted some research recently that explains how the core, loyal base of the Syrian regime has been actually fatigued as a result of many years of war.

Shifting Alliances in the Syrian Conflict

00:01:38 - as well, like over the past few years, that have more or less kind of weakened them, impoverished them, and they were not really willing to fight, again, for the regime. so everyone was surprised, mainly the rebels actually, how the regime forces collapsed in, in a lippo and how the progress continued. And when the regime was asking, obviously for all the assistance, from the countries and, and the parties like Hezbollah that held them at some point of time, it all fell on deaf ears.

00:02:09 - to get involved in the conflict. Russia, Russia is occupied with the war in Ukraine. Iran military presence has been diminished as a result of the Israeli airstrike. And Hezbollah wouldn't be able to send the troops to Syria because it was already consumed by the conflict in Lebanon. And that's what we see the balance of power changed to the favor of Turkey, more or less. Abbu Mohamed Joi is, originally from, Syria, from the countryside of Damascus. after the Americans, invaded Iraq in 2003,

00:02:43 - or the Syrian opposition groups that time that were actually more or less organized by the Syrian regime. Funnily enough, after 2003, the Syrian regime itself was organizing camps, for people to go and, and join the fight against the, what the Regime described at that time, the American occupation and invasion of Iraq. And obviously the Syria regime was concerned about its own fate and about its own destiny, that it'll be next if, after the fall of Sadan Hussein's regime.

From Insurgency to Ideological Clash: The Journey of Muhammad Jordani

00:03:13 - that he had like direct connections to the regime, but the regime, more or less facilitated the crossing of hundred and probably thousands of Syrian fighters from Syria to Iraq in 2003. And Muhammad Jordani was among them. So he joined, the insurgency, the Iraqi insurgency against the Americans. He was later captured by, the Americans. he was in prison actually, there for, for a few years. He was, later on released by the Americans. And then the Syrian Civil War, more

00:03:45 - of power in the eastern part of Syria, which is just close to Iraq. So the leader of the Islamic state of Iraq, which sent him from Iraq to Syria to establish a branch, in de resort, particularly in the town of Hai in, in the countryside of de Resort. and then at a later stage, obviously there was a clash between, Jolani and between Albert daddy. and it was, it had to do with the fact actually that,

00:04:19 - of the Islamic state of Iraq and Syria, and he refused that merge. There was as well, like, obviously kind of a difference about, the conservative ideology. The way, the Islamic state, of Iraq and Syria had dealt with the local population. As we all know, the Islamic state of Iraq and Syria, isis, which existed in their resort to start with, adopted a very brutal approach with the citizens, with the local people of, of their reserve. And SRA did not want to adopt that.

Factional Struggles and Shifting Ideologies in Syrian Conflict

00:04:50 - And the two grow groups have been engaged actually for a long war that lasted for a few months, which led to that death of thousands of people. eventually Jamat Nora was, displaced from their resort and had to leave, their resort and moved to Adlib, where established itself as kind of a, a stronghold, for the group, which, obviously developed to what we see now. at a later stage, jab Nostra started

00:05:23 - or so from Al-Qaida, change its name. And even as we know, like in a recent interview, the leader of the group, itself said that he, kind of changed himself and obviously, I guess identities changed when he went there. he was a very young person. he could have probably been brainwashed at that time by kind of the clerics that had connections with the regime. so he still obviously had that kind

00:05:52 - kind of particularly believing that Sharia should be kind of, the dominant low in, in the future state of Syria. I'm, I'm sure he still has these, kind of points of view when it comes to the relationship between Islam and the state, but he doesn't have the same, conservative points of view, about the relationship between the state and society that ISIS had, which alienated isis, and basically, made,

Challenges and Pragmatism in Rebuilding Syria

00:06:25 - I think he's, he's open to working with, with external actors. Obviously there, there are a lot of things to be seen about. what is he going to do, because the model that he built in Idlib, which is a small place, we are not sure whether it can be replicated elsewhere in Syria or not. Like Idlib is so small in comparison to the rest of Syria. There are other rebel factions now that are involved in the conflict. We have factions that are more from the south, from,

00:06:56 - there is a Syrian national army as well, which is backed by Turkey in, the north of Syria. So it's not that he is now ruling a small contained, geographical area, like Adlib. There are so many other things that he would need to take into consideration. I would say probably that all these factors would need would, would make him more pragmatic, would require him to become more pragmatic in how he deals

00:07:41 - Because in the end, Syria is, still under sanctions from Western states. if the country want, like, wants kind of to rebuild again, then he needs to improve relationship with the West in order to, to start the process of rebuilding.

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