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Food Insecurity, Inflation and Government Aid

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Food insecurity has become of increasing concern following the economic downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent sharp rise in inflation, including food price inflation. To better understand the conditions of food insecurity and the impacts of inflation and other drivers of food insecurity in developing Asia, Dina Azhgaliyeva discusses results from a household survey in 2023 in seven countries in Southeast Asia and nine countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Image courtesy of interviewee. September 17, 2024

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The research aimed to investigate how high inflation affects food insecurity in developing Asia. It found that as inflation increases, if incomes do not grow correspondingly, people can afford less food, leading to heightened food insecurity. The study examined both perceived inflation—how individuals perceive price changes based on their personal consumption—and official inflation statistics.

The findings revealed that many common coping strategies employed by families to deal with food insecurity, such as reducing expenses or searching for additional work, did not significantly improve conditions. The only effective strategy was applying for government aid, which showed a statistically significant impact on reducing food insecurity.

The study also compared regional differences between Southeast Asia and Central Asia, noting that Southeast Asia had a greater proportion of households experiencing extreme food insecurity. In conclusion, inflation worsens food insecurity, and targeted government support is crucial for vulnerable populations, such as low-income families and those experiencing declining incomes. The research underscores the need for governments to plan and budget support ahead of anticipated inflationary periods.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Impact of High Inflation on Food Insecurity**: The research aimed to investigate how high inflation affects food insecurity in developing Asia, where rising prices can reduce people's ability to afford necessary food items if their incomes do not keep pace with inflation.

2. **Perceived vs. Official Inflation**: The study differentiated between perceived inflation (how households view the increase in prices based on their consumption patterns) and the official inflation statistics by the government, emphasizing that individuals' experiences of inflation can vary greatly depending on their specific needs and circumstances.

3. **Coping Strategies**: Among the coping strategies examined, the study found that most strategies (such as reducing expenditures or seeking additional employment) did not have a statistically significant impact on alleviating food insecurity. The only effective strategy identified was applying for government aid.

4. **Vulnerable Groups**: The research highlighted the importance of identifying vulnerable populations, such as low-income households and those experiencing a decline in income, as they are more likely to suffer from food insecurity during periods of high inflation.

5. **Policy Recommendations**: The findings suggest that countries facing or anticipating high inflation should proactively plan support systems to assist those vulnerable to food insecurity, ensuring timely assistance is available for affected individuals and families.

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Here are some key quotes from the video concerning the impact of high inflation on food insecurity:

1. **Research Aim**: "The aim of the research was that when high inflation came to developing Asia, we wanted to study what the impact high inflation had on food insecurity."

2. **Inflation and Food Affordability**: "When inflation prices go high, and if income doesn't grow sufficiently, then meaning that people can afford less food than before because of price increase."

3. **Perceived Inflation**: "We studied, uh, perceived inflation, so what people think about inflation and what impact it had on their food insecurity."

4. **Different Perceptions**: "When you ask particular households, uh, what is your perceived inflation? That depends on what they purchase."

5. **Coping Strategies**: "So the objective for research was to study how people... dealt with that and what were effective for dealing with this food insecurity."

6. **Effectiveness of Coping Strategies**: "When we started the impact of the coping strategies on food insecurity, we found that nearly all of them were insignificant impact on food insecurity."

7. **Government Aid**: "Applying for government aid shows statistically significant impact on reducing food insecurity."

8. **Need for Support**: "It looks like, um, for people hard, uh, alone to take care of the food insecurity and they need support."

9. **Comparison of Regions**: "In Southeast Asia, the proportion of households with extreme values of food insecurity is greater than in Central Asian caucus."

10. **Inflation's Direct Impact**: "We found evidence that indeed inflation, uh, makes food insecurity worse."

11. **Vulnerable Groups**: "It's important for, uh, to identify vulnerable groups who are most likely to suffer from food insecurity."

12. **Effectiveness of Strategies**: "We found only one effective coping strategy, which is applying for government aid."

These quotes encapsulate the key findings and themes discussed in the research regarding inflation and food insecurity.

X-TIMESTAMP-MAP:LOCAL=00:00:00.000,MPEGTS=900000

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The aim of research was that when high inflation came

00:03.705 --> 00:07.485
to developing Asia, we wanted to study

00:07.915 --> 00:11.285
what the impact high inflation had on food insecurity.

00:11.665 --> 00:13.685
So when inflation prices goes high,

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and if income doesn't grow sufficiently, then meaning

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that people can afford less food than before

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because of price increase, so that that can, can lead

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to great concern about food insecurity

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when people can afford, less food than they,

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than they they think they need, or, than, than before

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because was, let's say, caused by,

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it could be different reasons, of course,

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but one of the reasons we studied, it was, due

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to high inflation in the recent years

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and then, that could cause, people

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to afford less foodland

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before if income didn't grow sufficiently.

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So we wanted to investigate if it's correct

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or not, how food insecurity was affected by inflation.

01:00.575 --> 01:03.235
We studied, perceived inflation, so

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what people think about inflation

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and what impact it had on their food insecurity.

01:09.295 --> 01:11.275
So for example, when,

01:11.275 --> 01:13.995
government provides official statistics for food, for,

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for consumer price inflation, right?

01:16.335 --> 01:18.915
So, that's what we usually see in the data,

01:19.855 --> 01:21.315
and that already went up.

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Uh, and, when,

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when I mentioned perceived household perceived inflation,

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that's a different thing.

01:28.615 --> 01:31.475
Uh, what does it mean? Because when country calculates,

01:31.755 --> 01:35.635
national statistics of, we calculate like macro,

01:35.635 --> 01:37.355
inflation rate for a whole country.

01:37.665 --> 01:39.315
It's called consumer price index.

01:39.815 --> 01:42.075
So how prices grow for consumer,

01:42.175 --> 01:44.475
but they calculate different source of prices, like

01:44.735 --> 01:48.875
of course, food, education, clothing, all the,

01:48.935 --> 01:51.355
the consumer needs, estimated, right?

01:51.975 --> 01:54.635
But when you ask particular households,

01:54.665 --> 01:56.115
what is your perceived inflation?

01:56.545 --> 01:59.035
That depends on what they purchase.

01:59.335 --> 02:02.755
So for example, if in a family, they don't have children

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who go to school, then they're not aware

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of price inflation on education, for example,

02:07.515 --> 02:09.635
like university prices, right?

02:10.015 --> 02:12.675
Or if they, if they don't have small children,

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then they are not aware of,

02:14.955 --> 02:16.195
clothing price inflation, right?

02:16.195 --> 02:19.355
They only know food inflation and so on.

02:19.455 --> 02:22.275
So that, that depends on what you usually buy.

02:22.615 --> 02:24.515
So this is what your perceived inflation,

02:24.815 --> 02:28.515
and even even food, like some people buy more meat,

02:28.895 --> 02:30.675
and some people buy more vegetables

02:30.775 --> 02:33.635
or some people buy more rice and some people buy more pasta.

02:33.895 --> 02:36.995
So then your perceived inflation, will vary according,

02:37.135 --> 02:38.635
depending on the households.

02:38.895 --> 02:41.995
So that's what we measure the perceived inflation,

02:42.025 --> 02:43.035
from the households.

02:43.455 --> 02:46.835
So the, the, the reasons for food insecurity there various,

02:47.415 --> 02:51.275
starting, from conflicts war,

02:51.455 --> 02:52.595
big events, right?

02:52.815 --> 02:54.515
And, also including for,

02:54.735 --> 02:58.875
and also additional reasons could be inflation. Uh,

02:59.675 --> 03:03.965
Also income decline, expenditure increase,

03:05.145 --> 03:10.125
fa family size increase, right, dependence,

03:10.125 --> 03:11.605
number of dependents increase.

03:12.145 --> 03:14.885
Uh, also, like inability to work.

03:15.625 --> 03:18.205
Uh, so there are very, very many, many, many, many, many,

03:18.465 --> 03:20.565
reasons could be macro reasons,

03:20.695 --> 03:22.485
could be family reasons, right?

03:23.345 --> 03:25.765
And then what's, I was interested more, not

03:25.765 --> 03:27.285
so much focused on the reasons,

03:27.465 --> 03:29.885
but more on the coping strategies.

03:29.905 --> 03:33.845
So the, the, the objective for research was to study

03:34.545 --> 03:36.165
how people, so

03:36.205 --> 03:38.765
what does inflation impact on food insecurity,

03:39.385 --> 03:40.925
how people were dealing with that

03:41.025 --> 03:42.965
and what were effective for dealing

03:42.965 --> 03:45.965
with this food insecurity so that we can provide,

03:45.965 --> 03:47.845
policy recommendations for countries.

03:48.265 --> 03:51.165
So in our results, what's interesting that,

03:51.515 --> 03:54.405
when we started the impact of the coping strategies

03:54.985 --> 03:58.885
on food insecurity, we found that nearly all

03:58.885 --> 04:02.085
of them were insignificant impact on food insecurity.

04:02.225 --> 04:05.525
So they didn't help with coping with food insecurity.

04:06.045 --> 04:08.285
A part of the only one measure which helped,

04:09.065 --> 04:12.925
and you can guess if you can, so that's applying

04:12.945 --> 04:14.205
for the government aid.

04:15.025 --> 04:19.885
Um, so it looks like, strategies of families were trying

04:19.985 --> 04:24.245
to do, like using savings, trying to reduce expenditure,

04:24.545 --> 04:26.885
trying to get additional job and so on.

04:27.305 --> 04:31.125
Uh, look, in our research showed no statistical significant

04:31.225 --> 04:33.645
impact on food, on improving food insecurity,

04:33.905 --> 04:35.325
on reducing food insecurity.

04:36.305 --> 04:38.005
Uh, but, applying

04:38.025 --> 04:41.085
for government aid shows statistically significant,

04:41.225 --> 04:43.165
impact on reducing food insecurity.

04:43.465 --> 04:48.365
So it looks like, for people hard, alone to

04:48.955 --> 04:51.805
take care of the food insecurity

04:52.265 --> 04:53.285
and they need support,

04:53.545 --> 04:56.285
if we compare these two regions on one hand,

04:56.555 --> 05:00.765
Southeast Asia, and on another hand the sample size we ha

05:00.765 --> 05:04.205
sample we had from, central Asian caucuses.

05:04.545 --> 05:07.085
So if we compare these two regions, so the,

05:07.145 --> 05:09.405
the difference I found actually surprised me

05:10.105 --> 05:12.805
in Southeast Asia proportion of there,

05:12.815 --> 05:15.845
there is greater proportion of households,

05:15.905 --> 05:18.845
who has extreme values of food insecurity.

05:19.025 --> 05:21.405
So they, they have extreme insecurity

05:22.065 --> 05:23.845
and also very high security.

05:24.225 --> 05:28.085
So this proportions a lot greater than in

05:28.085 --> 05:29.325
central Asian caucus.

05:30.375 --> 05:35.195
So meaning that Southeast Asia, they have more,

05:35.295 --> 05:38.795
people with extreme food insecurity comparing

05:38.815 --> 05:40.435
to central Asian caucus.

05:40.735 --> 05:43.275
So central Asian cocus, yeah, they have less extremes,

05:43.855 --> 05:46.955
but on another hand, they also have less proportion with

05:47.665 --> 05:48.835
extreme food security.

05:49.255 --> 05:53.035
So we found evidence that indeed inflation,

05:53.725 --> 05:56.875
makes food insecurity worse. And that's why,

05:57.145 --> 05:59.725
Uh, countries which see that they,

06:00.035 --> 06:02.885
they are having right now, let's say, are going to have,

06:02.885 --> 06:06.405
it's forecasted that they'll be in high inflation

06:06.985 --> 06:08.365
or in certain provinces

06:08.365 --> 06:11.925
or in certain countries, in certain regions, then,

06:12.115 --> 06:15.965
they can expect that they'll, they'll be food insecurity

06:16.655 --> 06:21.165
issue and they can plan, support, for such countries

06:21.225 --> 06:25.485
or regions or provinces, such,

06:25.705 --> 06:29.685
so the places where they see, expected fi

06:29.685 --> 06:32.245
to have high inflation, they can budget in

06:32.245 --> 06:33.965
advance, such support.

06:34.705 --> 06:37.765
So people receive timely support, for food.

06:38.825 --> 06:39.885
So that's the first one.

06:39.905 --> 06:43.285
So inflation has a, a strong impact on food insecurity.

06:43.925 --> 06:47.325
Secondly, particularly, there are vulnerable groups.

06:47.385 --> 06:49.005
Of course, it's, like expensive

06:49.005 --> 06:50.445
to provide support to everyone.

06:50.705 --> 06:54.085
So it's important for, to identify vulnerable groups

06:54.225 --> 06:56.805
who are most likely to suffer from food insecurity.

06:57.425 --> 06:59.645
So in our study, we found such groups,

06:59.745 --> 07:01.005
of course, low income groups.

07:01.035 --> 07:02.885
That makes sense also.

07:03.075 --> 07:06.805
Yeah, those who, whose income was in decline, those

07:06.805 --> 07:09.605
who had financial difficulties,

07:10.745 --> 07:13.205
and I think, larger family size.

07:13.775 --> 07:17.885
Third, among the coping strategies, which we studied,

07:18.505 --> 07:20.885
the effectiveness on coping with food insecurity,

07:22.185 --> 07:24.805
we found only one effective coping strategy,

07:24.855 --> 07:26.645
which is applying for government aid.

07:26.945 --> 07:31.325
So this says that, other coping strategies probably not

07:31.325 --> 07:33.445
as effective during food insecurity

07:34.145 --> 07:35.885
and support is really needed.

07:36.185 --> 07:39.565
So countries also can expect, more applications

07:39.565 --> 07:42.845
for government aid during, food, during,

07:42.845 --> 07:43.885
for example, high inflation

07:44.265 --> 07:46.165
or when people face food insecurity.

07:46.545 --> 07:48.165
So government can expect, so

07:48.165 --> 07:49.725
that could be budgeted in advance.

07:50.265 --> 07:52.765
Um, for, for support for ed security.

"The Impact of High Inflation on Food Insecurity in Developing Asia: An Analysis of Perceived Inflation and Coping Strategies"

00:00:00 - The aim of research was that when high inflation came to developing Asia, we wanted to study what the impact high inflation had on food insecurity. So when inflation prices goes high, and if income doesn't grow sufficiently, then meaning that people can afford less food than before because of price increase, so that that can, can lead to great concern about food insecurity when people can afford, less food than they, than they they think they need, or, than, than before because was, let's say, caused by, it could be different reasons, of course, but one of the reasons we studied, it was, due
00:00:47 - and then, that could cause, people to afford less foodland before if income didn't grow sufficiently. So we wanted to investigate if it's correct or not, how food insecurity was affected by inflation. We studied, perceived inflation, so what people think about inflation and what impact it had on their food insecurity. So for example, when, government provides official statistics for food, for, for consumer price inflation, right? So, that's what we usually see in the data, and that already went up. and, when, when I mentioned perceived household perceived inflation,
00:01:28 - what does it mean? Because when country calculates, national statistics of, we calculate like macro, inflation rate for a whole country. It's called consumer price index. So how prices grow for consumer, but they calculate different source of prices, like of course, food, education, clothing, all the, the consumer needs, estimated, right? But when you ask particular households, what is your perceived inflation? That depends on what they purchase. So for example, if in a family, they don't have children who go to school, then they're not aware of price inflation on education, for example,
00:02:10 - Or if they, if they don't have small children, then they are not aware of, clothing price inflation, right? They only know food inflation and so on. So that, that depends on what you usually buy. So this is what your perceived inflation, and even even food, like some people buy more meat, and some people buy more vegetables or some people buy more rice and some people buy more pasta. So then your perceived inflation, will vary according, depending on the households. So that's what we measure the perceived inflation, from the households. So the, the, the reasons for food insecurity there various, starting, from conflicts war,
00:02:52 - And, also including for, and also additional reasons could be inflation. Also income decline, expenditure increase, fa family size increase, right, dependence, number of dependents increase. also, like inability to work. so there are very, very many, many, many, many, many, reasons could be macro reasons, could be family reasons, right? And then what's, I was interested more, not so much focused on the reasons, but more on the coping strategies. So the, the, the objective for research was to study
00:03:36 - what does inflation impact on food insecurity, how people were dealing with that and what were effective for dealing with this food insecurity so that we can provide, policy recommendations for countries. So in our results, what's interesting that, when we started the impact of the coping strategies on food insecurity, we found that nearly all of them were insignificant impact on food insecurity. So they didn't help with coping with food insecurity. A part of the only one measure which helped, and you can guess if you can, so that's applying for the government aid.

"Government Aid as the Key Coping Strategy in Addressing Food Insecurity Amid High Inflation"

00:04:19 - to do, like using savings, trying to reduce expenditure, trying to get additional job and so on. look, in our research showed no statistical significant impact on food, on improving food insecurity, on reducing food insecurity. but, applying for government aid shows statistically significant, impact on reducing food insecurity. So it looks like, for people hard, alone to take care of the food insecurity and they need support, if we compare these two regions on one hand,
00:05:00 - sample we had from, central Asian caucuses. So if we compare these two regions, so the, the difference I found actually surprised me in Southeast Asia proportion of there, there is greater proportion of households, who has extreme values of food insecurity. So they, they have extreme insecurity and also very high security. So this proportions a lot greater than in central Asian caucus. So meaning that Southeast Asia, they have more, people with extreme food insecurity comparing
00:05:40 - So central Asian cocus, yeah, they have less extremes, but on another hand, they also have less proportion with extreme food security. So we found evidence that indeed inflation, makes food insecurity worse. And that's why, countries which see that they, they are having right now, let's say, are going to have, it's forecasted that they'll be in high inflation or in certain provinces or in certain countries, in certain regions, then, they can expect that they'll, they'll be food insecurity issue and they can plan, support, for such countries
00:06:25 - so the places where they see, expected fi to have high inflation, they can budget in advance, such support. So people receive timely support, for food. So that's the first one. So inflation has a, a strong impact on food insecurity. Secondly, particularly, there are vulnerable groups. Of course, it's, like expensive to provide support to everyone. So it's important for, to identify vulnerable groups who are most likely to suffer from food insecurity. So in our study, we found such groups, of course, low income groups. That makes sense also.
00:07:06 - who had financial difficulties, and I think, larger family size. Third, among the coping strategies, which we studied, the effectiveness on coping with food insecurity, we found only one effective coping strategy, which is applying for government aid. So this says that, other coping strategies probably not as effective during food insecurity and support is really needed. So countries also can expect, more applications for government aid during, food, during, for example, high inflation
00:07:50 - So government can expect, so that could be budgeted in advance. for, for support for ed security.

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