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Food Insecurity, Inflation and Government Aid

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Food insecurity has become of increasing concern following the economic downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent sharp rise in inflation, including food price inflation. To better understand the conditions of food insecurity and the impacts of inflation and other drivers of food insecurity in developing Asia, Dina Azhgaliyeva discusses results from a household survey in 2023 in seven countries in Southeast Asia and nine countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Image courtesy of interviewee. September 17, 2024

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The research aimed to investigate how high inflation affects food insecurity in developing Asia. It found that as inflation increases, if incomes do not grow correspondingly, people can afford less food, leading to heightened food insecurity. The study examined both perceived inflation—how individuals perceive price changes based on their personal consumption—and official inflation statistics.

The findings revealed that many common coping strategies employed by families to deal with food insecurity, such as reducing expenses or searching for additional work, did not significantly improve conditions. The only effective strategy was applying for government aid, which showed a statistically significant impact on reducing food insecurity.

The study also compared regional differences between Southeast Asia and Central Asia, noting that Southeast Asia had a greater proportion of households experiencing extreme food insecurity. In conclusion, inflation worsens food insecurity, and targeted government support is crucial for vulnerable populations, such as low-income families and those experiencing declining incomes. The research underscores the need for governments to plan and budget support ahead of anticipated inflationary periods.

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Here are five key points from the video:

1. **Impact of High Inflation on Food Insecurity**: The research aimed to investigate how high inflation affects food insecurity in developing Asia, where rising prices can reduce people's ability to afford necessary food items if their incomes do not keep pace with inflation.

2. **Perceived vs. Official Inflation**: The study differentiated between perceived inflation (how households view the increase in prices based on their consumption patterns) and the official inflation statistics by the government, emphasizing that individuals' experiences of inflation can vary greatly depending on their specific needs and circumstances.

3. **Coping Strategies**: Among the coping strategies examined, the study found that most strategies (such as reducing expenditures or seeking additional employment) did not have a statistically significant impact on alleviating food insecurity. The only effective strategy identified was applying for government aid.

4. **Vulnerable Groups**: The research highlighted the importance of identifying vulnerable populations, such as low-income households and those experiencing a decline in income, as they are more likely to suffer from food insecurity during periods of high inflation.

5. **Policy Recommendations**: The findings suggest that countries facing or anticipating high inflation should proactively plan support systems to assist those vulnerable to food insecurity, ensuring timely assistance is available for affected individuals and families.

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Here are some key quotes from the video concerning the impact of high inflation on food insecurity:

1. **Research Aim**: "The aim of the research was that when high inflation came to developing Asia, we wanted to study what the impact high inflation had on food insecurity."

2. **Inflation and Food Affordability**: "When inflation prices go high, and if income doesn't grow sufficiently, then meaning that people can afford less food than before because of price increase."

3. **Perceived Inflation**: "We studied, uh, perceived inflation, so what people think about inflation and what impact it had on their food insecurity."

4. **Different Perceptions**: "When you ask particular households, uh, what is your perceived inflation? That depends on what they purchase."

5. **Coping Strategies**: "So the objective for research was to study how people... dealt with that and what were effective for dealing with this food insecurity."

6. **Effectiveness of Coping Strategies**: "When we started the impact of the coping strategies on food insecurity, we found that nearly all of them were insignificant impact on food insecurity."

7. **Government Aid**: "Applying for government aid shows statistically significant impact on reducing food insecurity."

8. **Need for Support**: "It looks like, um, for people hard, uh, alone to take care of the food insecurity and they need support."

9. **Comparison of Regions**: "In Southeast Asia, the proportion of households with extreme values of food insecurity is greater than in Central Asian caucus."

10. **Inflation's Direct Impact**: "We found evidence that indeed inflation, uh, makes food insecurity worse."

11. **Vulnerable Groups**: "It's important for, uh, to identify vulnerable groups who are most likely to suffer from food insecurity."

12. **Effectiveness of Strategies**: "We found only one effective coping strategy, which is applying for government aid."

These quotes encapsulate the key findings and themes discussed in the research regarding inflation and food insecurity.

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Here are some similar articles based on the themes of your video, which focuses on high inflation, food insecurity, coping strategies, and the need for governmental support:

1. **The Relationship between Inflation and Food Insecurity**:
This article would explore how rising inflation rates directly impact food prices, creating barriers for low-income families in accessing sufficient nutrition. It might analyze data trends in various regions and the socio-economic factors contributing to food insecurity.

2. **Coping Strategies in Times of Economic Crisis**:
An article discussing various coping mechanisms employed by households facing economic difficulties, particularly during periods of high inflation. It could highlight successful strategies, including government aid applications, community support programs, and family budgeting adjustments.

3. **Food Security in Developing Countries: Challenges and Solutions**:
This piece would investigate the state of food security in developing Asian countries, examining how regional conflicts, economic instability, and inflation exacerbate food insecurity and proposing potential policy interventions.

4. **Understanding Perceived vs. Actual Inflation**:
An exploration of how individuals perceive inflation differently than official statistics reflect, and the impact of this perception on purchasing behaviors and food security, particularly in varying socio-economic conditions.

5. **Government Assistance Programs: Their Role in Mitigating Food Insecurity**:
This article would discuss the effectiveness of government assistance programs in alleviating food insecurity during economic downturns, particularly emphasizing the importance of timely interventions during periods of high inflation.

6. **Regional Variances in Food Insecurity Across Asia**:
A comparative study analyzing food insecurity rates between Southeast Asia and Central Asia, focusing on the differing extents of poverty, economic stability, and effectiveness of local mitigation strategies.

7. **Impact of Income Decline on Food Security**:
This piece might delve into how income losses during economic crises correlate with increases in food insecurity, detailing specific demographics that are most affected and how they cope.

8. **Inflation-Induced Food Insecurity: Global Perspectives**:
A broad overview of how inflation affects food security in different parts of the world, discussing socio-economic trends, governmental responses, and community-based solutions that have been effective in mitigating these issues.

These ideas could serve as starting points for articles that address the multifaceted relationship between inflation and food security, greatly extending upon the themes presented in your video.

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The aim of research was that when high inflation came

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to developing Asia, we wanted to study

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what the impact high inflation had on food insecurity.

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So when inflation prices goes high,

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and if income doesn't grow sufficiently, then meaning

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that people can afford less food than before

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because of price increase, so that that can, can lead

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to great concern about food insecurity

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when people can afford, less food than they,

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than they they think they need, or, than, than before

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because was, let's say, caused by,

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it could be different reasons, of course,

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but one of the reasons we studied, it was, due

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to high inflation in the recent years

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and then, that could cause, people

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to afford less foodland

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before if income didn't grow sufficiently.

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So we wanted to investigate if it's correct

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or not, how food insecurity was affected by inflation.

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We studied, perceived inflation, so

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what people think about inflation

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and what impact it had on their food insecurity.

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So for example, when,

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government provides official statistics for food, for,

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for consumer price inflation, right?

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So, that's what we usually see in the data,

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and that already went up.

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Uh, and, when,

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when I mentioned perceived household perceived inflation,

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that's a different thing.

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Uh, what does it mean? Because when country calculates,

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national statistics of, we calculate like macro,

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inflation rate for a whole country.

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It's called consumer price index.

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So how prices grow for consumer,

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but they calculate different source of prices, like

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of course, food, education, clothing, all the,

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the consumer needs, estimated, right?

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But when you ask particular households,

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what is your perceived inflation?

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That depends on what they purchase.

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So for example, if in a family, they don't have children

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who go to school, then they're not aware

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of price inflation on education, for example,

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like university prices, right?

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Or if they, if they don't have small children,

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then they are not aware of,

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clothing price inflation, right?

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They only know food inflation and so on.

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So that, that depends on what you usually buy.

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So this is what your perceived inflation,

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and even even food, like some people buy more meat,

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and some people buy more vegetables

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or some people buy more rice and some people buy more pasta.

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So then your perceived inflation, will vary according,

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depending on the households.

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So that's what we measure the perceived inflation,

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from the households.

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So the, the, the reasons for food insecurity there various,

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starting, from conflicts war,

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big events, right?

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And, also including for,

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and also additional reasons could be inflation. Uh,

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Also income decline, expenditure increase,

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fa family size increase, right, dependence,

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number of dependents increase.

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Uh, also, like inability to work.

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Uh, so there are very, very many, many, many, many, many,

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reasons could be macro reasons,

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could be family reasons, right?

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And then what's, I was interested more, not

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so much focused on the reasons,

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but more on the coping strategies.

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So the, the, the objective for research was to study

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how people, so

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what does inflation impact on food insecurity,

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how people were dealing with that

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and what were effective for dealing

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with this food insecurity so that we can provide,

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policy recommendations for countries.

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So in our results, what's interesting that,

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when we started the impact of the coping strategies

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on food insecurity, we found that nearly all

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of them were insignificant impact on food insecurity.

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So they didn't help with coping with food insecurity.

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A part of the only one measure which helped,

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and you can guess if you can, so that's applying

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for the government aid.

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Um, so it looks like, strategies of families were trying

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to do, like using savings, trying to reduce expenditure,

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trying to get additional job and so on.

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Uh, look, in our research showed no statistical significant

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impact on food, on improving food insecurity,

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on reducing food insecurity.

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Uh, but, applying

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for government aid shows statistically significant,

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impact on reducing food insecurity.

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So it looks like, for people hard, alone to

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take care of the food insecurity

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and they need support,

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if we compare these two regions on one hand,

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Southeast Asia, and on another hand the sample size we ha

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sample we had from, central Asian caucuses.

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So if we compare these two regions, so the,

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the difference I found actually surprised me

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in Southeast Asia proportion of there,

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there is greater proportion of households,

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who has extreme values of food insecurity.

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So they, they have extreme insecurity

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and also very high security.

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So this proportions a lot greater than in

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central Asian caucus.

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So meaning that Southeast Asia, they have more,

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people with extreme food insecurity comparing

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to central Asian caucus.

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So central Asian cocus, yeah, they have less extremes,

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but on another hand, they also have less proportion with

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extreme food security.

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So we found evidence that indeed inflation,

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makes food insecurity worse. And that's why,

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Uh, countries which see that they,

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they are having right now, let's say, are going to have,

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it's forecasted that they'll be in high inflation

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or in certain provinces

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or in certain countries, in certain regions, then,

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they can expect that they'll, they'll be food insecurity

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issue and they can plan, support, for such countries

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or regions or provinces, such,

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so the places where they see, expected fi

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to have high inflation, they can budget in

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advance, such support.

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So people receive timely support, for food.

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So that's the first one.

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So inflation has a, a strong impact on food insecurity.

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Secondly, particularly, there are vulnerable groups.

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Of course, it's, like expensive

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to provide support to everyone.

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So it's important for, to identify vulnerable groups

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who are most likely to suffer from food insecurity.

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So in our study, we found such groups,

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of course, low income groups.

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That makes sense also.

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Yeah, those who, whose income was in decline, those

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who had financial difficulties,

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and I think, larger family size.

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Third, among the coping strategies, which we studied,

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the effectiveness on coping with food insecurity,

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we found only one effective coping strategy,

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which is applying for government aid.

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So this says that, other coping strategies probably not

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as effective during food insecurity

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and support is really needed.

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So countries also can expect, more applications

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for government aid during, food, during,

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for example, high inflation

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or when people face food insecurity.

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So government can expect, so

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that could be budgeted in advance.

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Um, for, for support for ed security.

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