Macroeconomics

How Well Do Consumers Forecast Inflation?

How proficient are consumers at forecasting the inflation rate one year ahead? Michael Owyang compares consumers’ median inflation expectations and the year-over-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation

Antonio Diez de los Rios discusses the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model where agents allocate their time to market and home production and social and home leisure

Bank of Canada

Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally

Thomas Nitschka discusses whether the global fall in inflation expectations together with increased fear of recession help to explain the downward trajectory in government bond yields and stock price dynamics

Swiss National Bank

Central Bank Communication: One Size Does Not Fit All

High-quality central bank communication can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. John Simon discusses three important aspects of central bank communication; audience, readability and degree of reasoning

Reserve Bank of Australia

Investigating the U.S. Reliance on Foreign Suppliers

Ana Maria Santacreu discusses whether the heavy reliance on a few foreign suppliers in some industries could make the U.S. economy more susceptible to foreign economic shocks

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Does the National Debt Matter?

The U.S national debt has increased 400% in 12 years, while over the same period, national income has grown by only 30%. David Andolfatto discusses whether this fiscal situation is sustainable

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis