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Tolani Britton discusses whether the Great Recession led to changes in two-year and four-year college enrollment patterns for students aged 18–24.

Image courtesy of interviewee. May 17, 2024

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This video video discusses the impact of economic recessions, specifically the Great Recession, on college enrollment rates, particularly for Black and Latina students. It highlights that previous research indicated people are more likely to return to college during recessions due to higher unemployment, which decreases the opportunity cost of education.

The author cites significant increases in unemployment rates among young individuals during the Great Recession and questions whether the trends observed in previous recessions hold true in this context. The analysis focuses on the ability of families of color, especially Black and Latina families, to afford college given the economic hardships they faced—namely, job losses and loss of home assets.

The study uses data from the Current Population Survey to analyze college enrollment patterns between 2002 and 2012, employing a difference-in-difference-in-difference methodology. The findings reveal an overall increase in college enrollment in states with higher unemployment rates and particularly in two-year colleges. This video video suggests that unemployed individuals turned to education to upskill and enhance their employability.

For Black and Latina students, it was found that their enrollment increased by 2 to 4 percentage points during the recession, although structural barriers like credit constraints in high unemployment states may have affected their ability to enroll. The author concludes by emphasizing the importance of providing support and resources, including financial aid and wraparound services, to help students complete their degrees, particularly in light of challenges exacerbated by economic downturns. Future research is suggested to explore better support mechanisms for students facing economic and structural challenges within the educational system.

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X-TIMESTAMP-MAP:LOCAL=00:00:00.000,MPEGTS=900000

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We know that there was clearly the

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great recession that occurred.

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Um, and part of my interest in the work was prior work

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that actually demonstrated that in times of recession,

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and this is people like Betson McFarland in 1995

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and Pennington McGinty and Williams in 2002.

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And part of what they demonstrated was that,

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when there were economic recessions,

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people were actually more likely to return to college,

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in part because unemployment rates were higher.

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And so, the opportunity cost

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or what they were giving up was less, right?

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So if they were more likely

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to be unemployed than they would oftentimes return

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and be more likely to return to college than they would,

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during times of, economic prosperity.

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And so that really sparked my interest in understanding,

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is this true more broadly?

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And is this true during a period, of,

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I would say, you know, sort of greater economic severity.

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This was the finding in past recessions.

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But we know part of what happened with the Great Recession,

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particularly with, you know, people, you know,

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the subprime mortgages, people losing their homes,

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that it was more severe in many ways.

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We had relatively high rates of unemployment.

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Um, you know, one study found that the unemployment rate

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for people under the age

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of 25 increased from 11.5% in the first quarter of 2008.

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So at the beginning of the Great Recession to 18.3%

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by the fourth quarter of 2010.

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So essentially over a two year period,

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we see this increase in the unemployment rate, particularly

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for, persons under the age of 25.

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And so my questions were, well, in the past we saw

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that people were more likely to return to college.

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Is this true now?

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And in particular, given that we know

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that the Great Recession hit families of color.

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And when I say families of color,

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I'm really thinking in this particular study of, black

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and Latina families, on the one hand,

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you have these higher unemployment rates.

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On the other hand, you have families losing

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what in the United States generally tends

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to be the primary asset, which is the home.

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Given this reality, were students even able

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to return to college?

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And why, why do we care about whether

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or not they were returning to college?

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When we think about college,

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there's clearly this whole debate in the US about college.

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Is it worth it? Students are taking on debt.

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And I think those things are true, right?

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I I think it'd be, careless not to name those realities.

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And at the same time, in the absence of college,

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particularly given some of the realities of discrimination

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for black Latina young adults, what are the other options?

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What are the ways that you can build skills?

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What are the ways that you can increase your

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likelihood of employment?

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Absolutely. So there is an extensive amount

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of work that's been done.

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I mean, I will certainly leave some people out.

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Um, but I, you know, I think

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that there's this broad literature,

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and some of the literature is very descriptive, right?

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So we think about people like Snyder

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and Dillo, who, who, named it in 2007, black

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and Latina young adults between 18 to 24 had lower rates

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of college enrollment, in the year following graduation,

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high school graduation, then their white counterparts.

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Um, and so if we think about, for example, black enrollment,

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the enrollment of black young adults, it was about 56%.

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And this is nationally, about 64% for Latin a students,

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and about 70%, right?

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This is the year following high school graduation,

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for white students.

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And so part of

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what we understand is these are not simply individual

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destruct, individual decisions.

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Um, they're about the structures in which they exist.

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We know that students are not attending the

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same types of high school.

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They're not receiving the same types of preparation access

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to, high quality coursework,

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things like advanced courses, AP courses.

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Um, and what's, you know, part of

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what has really sparked my interest is that this recognition

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that college enrollment rates certainly differ by race

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and ethnicity in the United States,

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but work, for example, done by Cameron

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and Heckman in 2001, found that

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after you controlled for family background, so right,

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really thinking about income, black

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and Latina young adults were actually more likely to enroll.

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So when we just look at the statistics, we say,

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they're less likely to enroll.

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But then when we start controlling, for some

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of the factors related to enrollment,

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things like family income, we see that black

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and Latina students are actually more likely to enroll.

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Um, we, there's sort of an extensive body of work that,

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you know, including some work that I've done looking at

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expectations in both middle school and high school.

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And for black and Latina students, they're as likely,

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if not more likely, than their peers to say they want to go

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to college, they intend to go to college.

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And then we have to think about

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what are the circumstances in which they're living

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and learning, and how does that either enable

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or constrain access to college.

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Um, finally, we know that there's certainly the role

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of federal and state financial aid, particularly

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for students who have, you know, sort

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of limited access to college.

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And we, you know, there, once again, BARR

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and Turner in 2013, looked at the role

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of financial aid in, mitigating sort of individual

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and familial credit constraints.

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Um, and demonstrated that if students had more access

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to federal and state aid

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and particularly grants, they were more likely

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to enroll in colleges compared to students

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who had lesser access to these grants.

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Um, and we also know a work by, Musu Gillet,

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for example, in 2016, Santiago

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and Cunningham in 2005, that black students are actually,

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more likely to receive access to grants

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and loans, than students from other groups.

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And so the thought is, if they have access to aid,

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then they may be able to, in some ways,

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I don't wanna say overcome,

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but it may mitigate in some ways some

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of the structural barriers around lower levels of employment

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as well as the loss of familial assets.

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So the dataset was the, current population survey.

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And in particular, I used the education supplements.

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I did it over a 10 year period from 2002 to, 2012.

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Part of the thought is being able to establish pretre,

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which is important given the methodologies that I use,

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which was a difference in difference in differences.

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And the main threats of validity in the difference in

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difference, which is the two differences,

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and I'll get to the three differences in a minute,

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is really thinking about pretre.

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Um, if you have two different groups that you're looking

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to compare, we're looking to compare trends,

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not necessarily the absolute numbers.

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Um, and so the trends actually need to be parallel.

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Um, and so part of the reason I have to establish some time

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before is to have the parallel trends.

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Um, in terms of the actual dataset, it is,

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collected on a monthly basis.

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Um, and it's a random sample

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of the population of the United States.

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At the time that I was collecting

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or using this collected data,

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it was about 60,000 family units.

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Um, and part of what they're trying

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to understand are measures like employment, earnings,

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and then sort of, sort of other general

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characteristics of household.

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Um, it does exclude people who are, institutionalized.

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And in the United States, that's both people

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who might be institutionalized for, health reasons

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as well as incarcerated.

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Um, they usually interview a particular household about four

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times, then they have eight, months where they don't,

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and then they resurvey it for another four months.

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Um, and the education supplement in particular

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is only collected in October.

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So it is an annual supplement,

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and it looks at things like school enrollment,

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educational attainment.

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Um, you know, for me, part of what it does is also look at,

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intensity of enrollment.

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Are students going part-time, full-time?

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Are they going to two year institutions,

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four year institutions?

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Um, you know, some of the other factors

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that I looked at were things like the racial, racial,

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affiliation of, of individuals in the household,

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family composition,

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the financial characteristics of household.

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Um, and part of the reason I did that was it allowed me

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to include a whole set of covariates such as, you know,

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race, ethnicity, gender, whether

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or not families owned their home employment status

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of the heads of households, given the sort

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of analysis that I was doing.

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Um, I also accounted for geographic locale

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because part of the approach, which I'll get

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to once again a little bit later when I start talking about

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the difference and difference in differences,

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was thinking about, what is the role

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of the severity of the reception?

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For example, in states where we had, sort

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of greater increases in, in unemployment rates,

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were we likely to see, more, all right,

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college enrollment.

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So were students more likely to enroll

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because right, the opportunities

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or the access to jobs was lesser or less likely, right?

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Because if your family members aren't working in theory,

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you have time to go to college,

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but you may need to try to find, you know, a part-time gig

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or, you know, some other kind of, unemploy,

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some other kind of employment in order to contribute

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to your household, which is one

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of the things we've actually seen in this most recent,

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you know, covid period where students

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and young people were taking jobs in order

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to help their families.

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Um, the, the final, sort of component that I

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included was, some of the, funding dispersed

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by the federal government,

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for education related purposes in 2009.

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Um, so the, the empirical approach is the difference

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and difference and differences model.

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This is a quasi experimental approach.

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So, you know, one of the, realities

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of education is we often can't run experiments,

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and particularly during, a recession

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and the great recession,

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we can't necessarily assign families to treatment

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and control conditions.

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So part of what we do is we think about

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what are naturally occurring experiments,

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and that's what we think when,

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so that's the approach, right?

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The quasi experimental approach is essentially,

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how do I take this natural experiment,

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and use a methodo methodological approach that uses this,

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natural variation that's occurring.

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Um, and so for the triple difference model,

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the first difference is really to see

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how enrollment changed over the time period in question.

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So really thinking pre great recession.

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And then once we're in the great recession,

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how has enrollment changed?

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The second is the geographic variation intensity.

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Um, and that's looking at state's annual unemployment rate,

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prior to the recession.

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So looking at 2006 and then looking at 2009.

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So from 2006 to 2009,

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what was the change in state's annual unemployment rate?

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And once again, this is the, to understand,

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to measure the severity of the recession.

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Um, and then finally, I am thinking about,

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and my third difference is,

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and how might this be different for,

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separately model separate models for black

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students when compared to other students?

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Um, and how is this different

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for Latina students when compared to other students?

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And the final thing that I did, I'm just recognizing

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that the difference in difference in differences model,

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like all methodological approaches,

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like all empirical approaches, has its limitation.

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I also did, I fit a set of maximum likelihood,

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multinomial logistic models.

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And the reason that I did this is I wanted to look at,

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or compare average probability of college enrollment in two

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and four year institutions, as opposed to what I did

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with the difference and difference

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and differences model, which was really looking at,

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are you enrolled or not enrolled?

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The major finding was that, or ma, the major findings were

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That college enrollment increased

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by about 2.4 percentage points in states

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with higher rates of unemployment.

11:59.425 --> 12:01.445
So this was overall, right?

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So when overall in states

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where the recession in some ways was more severe as measured

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by, state unemployment rates, we actually saw

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that people were more likely to enroll in college.

12:16.005 --> 12:17.305
What's important here is that we,

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we primarily saw the increase in two year colleges.

12:20.865 --> 12:22.865
And what that says to us,

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or what that at least suggests is that one

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of the mechanisms is that people who were unemployed were,

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returning to shorter programs in order

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to upskill, right?

12:33.325 --> 12:34.985
So they were going back,

12:35.725 --> 12:39.665
and saying, okay, how do we for some shorter period of time,

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pot potentially taking a few courses

12:42.885 --> 12:45.265
or taking, a certificate program,

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which would be shorter than the degree program they were

12:48.225 --> 12:50.705
going back to, update their skills,

12:50.735 --> 12:52.665
potentially receive new skills.

12:53.325 --> 12:58.205
Um, and I think that, you know, part of the context here is

12:58.235 --> 13:00.325
that, with the Great Recession,

13:00.325 --> 13:02.725
there were certainly places where we saw,

13:02.745 --> 13:04.405
higher rates of unemployment.

13:04.545 --> 13:09.005
And so if we think about, the construction industry,

13:09.065 --> 13:13.005
for example, we saw, you know, huge reductions in the number

13:13.005 --> 13:15.405
of homes being built, particularly be

13:15.435 --> 13:18.605
because so many people lost their homes,

13:18.605 --> 13:20.525
because of the, the mortgage crisis.

13:21.425 --> 13:24.685
And so, it could be the case that,

13:24.705 --> 13:27.365
in the places we saw higher rates of unemployment,

13:27.365 --> 13:30.165
they were also states like Nevada that,

13:30.945 --> 13:34.805
had large construction industries that were no longer,

13:35.745 --> 13:37.685
you know, sort of vibrant industries.

13:37.705 --> 13:38.765
And so it could have been the case

13:38.765 --> 13:42.325
that people were returning to, receive new skills

13:42.545 --> 13:44.285
to learn new skills potentially.

13:44.865 --> 13:47.285
Um, and, you know, there's not great evidence

13:47.345 --> 13:48.525
to change industries.

13:49.105 --> 13:52.605
Um, but when we think about two year colleges, we know

13:52.605 --> 13:55.565
that the kind of courses that are offered are often,

13:55.985 --> 13:58.885
you know, the, the two year institutions are,

13:58.885 --> 14:00.805
very diverse institutions, right?

14:01.065 --> 14:04.645
Um, so, you know, in many cases they,

14:04.955 --> 14:06.925
they provide GED courses, right?

14:06.925 --> 14:08.245
General education diplomas.

14:08.245 --> 14:11.545
So people who haven't gotten their, their,

14:11.545 --> 14:14.025
their high school diplomas can get their diplomas at these

14:14.025 --> 14:15.105
community colleges.

14:15.485 --> 14:17.465
Um, they have vocational training.

14:18.085 --> 14:20.425
So for example, if you wanted to become,

14:22.575 --> 14:23.575
a welder, many

14:23.635 --> 14:26.295
of the two year colleges have programs in welding

14:26.395 --> 14:27.575
or to become an electrician.

14:27.595 --> 14:29.855
So, they're just, you know, in addition,

14:29.855 --> 14:31.975
they also have programs in sociology, things

14:31.975 --> 14:34.055
that we generally think about for the four year degree.

14:34.475 --> 14:37.415
Uh, so there is certainly evidence that once again,

14:37.415 --> 14:38.695
college enrollment increased.

14:39.435 --> 14:41.375
Um, the second part, so that was sort of the first,

14:41.635 --> 14:42.975
major finding.

14:43.835 --> 14:46.175
The second part was, and does this hold

14:46.175 --> 14:47.575
for Black and Latine students?

14:48.075 --> 14:49.415
And what I found was that black

14:49.415 --> 14:50.895
and Latine students were between two

14:50.895 --> 14:53.845
and four percentage points more likely to enroll in college

14:53.895 --> 14:55.765
after the onset of the great Recession.

14:56.585 --> 15:00.885
Um, however, this was not necessarily this the case

15:01.425 --> 15:03.685
in states with higher rates of unemployment.

15:03.705 --> 15:05.805
So overall they were more likely to enroll in college.

15:06.625 --> 15:11.285
Um, however, part of what this suggests is that, some

15:11.285 --> 15:13.565
of the ways in which families might have been credit

15:13.675 --> 15:16.325
constrained in states with higher rates

15:16.325 --> 15:19.725
of unemployment served as a structural barrier for students.

15:20.345 --> 15:23.085
Um, and so I think earlier in the conversation,

15:23.245 --> 15:26.965
I mentioned, well, I use the word conversation lightly.

15:27.625 --> 15:30.205
Um,

15:30.525 --> 15:34.645
I mentioned earlier in this monologue, I mentioned that,

15:35.185 --> 15:39.445
you know, it could be the case that, black

15:39.445 --> 15:42.125
and Latina students were more likely to take on jobs.

15:42.505 --> 15:44.045
Um, and we know that actually black

15:44.045 --> 15:45.765
and Latina students are more likely

15:45.765 --> 15:48.085
to be both enrolled in college and working.

15:48.465 --> 15:49.725
And this might be one of the reasons

15:49.725 --> 15:51.845
that we didn't necessarily see,

15:52.055 --> 15:54.725
while we saw overall increases in the likelihood

15:54.725 --> 15:57.485
of college enrollment, as I said, on the order of two

15:57.485 --> 15:59.005
to four percentage points for black

15:59.005 --> 16:01.405
and Latin students, it wasn't necessarily in places

16:01.515 --> 16:03.885
that had higher rates of unemployment.

16:04.705 --> 16:09.125
Um, the final thing that I'll say is that, in part

16:09.125 --> 16:12.365
because of methodology, I interpret,

16:12.365 --> 16:15.005
this is a quasi experimental approach, but in part

16:15.005 --> 16:18.605
because, particularly for Latin A students, the,

16:19.025 --> 16:22.485
the prior trends were not, as parallel

16:22.485 --> 16:24.565
that I interpret LA the results

16:24.725 --> 16:26.085
for Latin a students with caution.

16:26.185 --> 16:27.485
So I always add that caveat.

16:27.825 --> 16:30.805
So I would say that part of, and,

16:30.945 --> 16:35.205
and you know, one of, one of the lessons from covid

16:35.345 --> 16:38.645
and some of the current research that's being done,

16:38.785 --> 16:41.965
places like the Community College Research Center at

16:42.125 --> 16:45.845
Columbia University and many other places is trying

16:45.845 --> 16:47.885
to understand,

16:48.355 --> 16:50.405
what happens when government provides an

16:50.405 --> 16:51.525
extensive amount of aid.

16:51.625 --> 16:54.805
So part of what the, context, you,

16:54.825 --> 16:56.125
you may have to switch the order.

16:56.285 --> 16:57.365
'cause I think I've started off a little bit with

16:57.365 --> 16:58.605
implications, not conclusions.

16:58.945 --> 17:02.565
Um, but you know, part of, you know, part of

17:03.195 --> 17:05.605
what we saw during COVID-19 was

17:05.605 --> 17:07.845
that more money was provided.

17:08.105 --> 17:10.525
Um, and, and this is the order of billions of dollars

17:10.745 --> 17:13.005
to both colleges,

17:13.345 --> 17:15.485
and to students in the form of financial aid.

17:15.485 --> 17:17.005
And so some of the work that's actually being done

17:17.585 --> 17:22.085
is we have this, you know, this sort

17:22.085 --> 17:25.325
of severe shock to, the economy,

17:25.665 --> 17:27.405
to families, to people's health.

17:27.595 --> 17:29.005
What happens when government actually

17:29.005 --> 17:30.165
provides additional aid?

17:30.515 --> 17:32.645
Does this mitigate some of those effects?

17:33.225 --> 17:36.525
Um, and in particular, does it actually help keep people

17:37.045 --> 17:39.765
enrolled in college and able to complete?

17:40.505 --> 17:44.165
Um, and so the answer to that question is we don't know.

17:44.225 --> 17:47.205
So I would absolutely say that that is one future direction

17:47.205 --> 17:48.565
for research is

17:48.565 --> 17:50.765
what happens when the government actually does step in

17:50.765 --> 17:51.925
and provide additional aid.

17:51.985 --> 17:53.725
Is it enough? Um,

17:53.725 --> 17:55.405
and one of the reasons that this, these

17:55.925 --> 17:58.245
questions are complex is it's not just money.

17:58.715 --> 18:01.285
It's actually how money is spent, right?

18:01.465 --> 18:03.085
It, you know, and some of the money, for example,

18:03.145 --> 18:05.605
during covid was spent on computers.

18:06.385 --> 18:10.685
Um, it was spent on ensuring students had access to, to wifi

18:11.025 --> 18:13.045
and access to networks.

18:13.185 --> 18:15.805
Um, you know, one of the things that I found as,

18:16.485 --> 18:18.725
a professor at this time was that there were students

18:18.745 --> 18:21.085
who didn't have places particularly, you know, given

18:21.085 --> 18:22.085
that students had gone home,

18:22.405 --> 18:24.365
students didn't have place quiet places

18:24.415 --> 18:26.965
where they could do my three hour class.

18:27.745 --> 18:30.565
Um, and so there were all of these sort of conditions

18:31.185 --> 18:33.485
and right, there were some pretty incredible things

18:33.485 --> 18:36.445
that happened, like setting up wifi centers at some

18:36.445 --> 18:39.245
of the California community college parking lots so

18:39.245 --> 18:41.325
that students could just come and sit in that parking lot

18:41.385 --> 18:43.445
and right, and then do their class.

18:43.665 --> 18:45.685
But at the same time, if a student had a job,

18:45.935 --> 18:47.685
maybe they weren't able to sit and do that class.

18:48.225 --> 18:51.635
So I think that, you know, one of the things

18:51.635 --> 18:54.235
that we've seen, during the Great recession,

18:54.235 --> 18:56.595
we saw increases in the likelihood of college enrollment

18:56.615 --> 18:58.555
for black and Latina students and for all students.

18:59.255 --> 19:03.595
Um, however, we saw declines in this most recent COVID-19,

19:03.595 --> 19:05.915
particularly in the two year college sector,

19:06.035 --> 19:08.595
declines in the likelihood of en enrollment for black

19:08.595 --> 19:10.715
and Latin a students and pretty large declines,

19:10.715 --> 19:12.515
particularly in the community college sector.

19:12.985 --> 19:14.795
Many of the students who are in the community college sector

19:14.825 --> 19:17.395
tend to be students from working class families,

19:17.595 --> 19:18.675
students who are working full-time.

19:19.215 --> 19:20.915
Um, they might be parents themselves.

19:22.005 --> 19:24.745
And so I think one lesson that was learned,

19:25.005 --> 19:27.905
was the importance of providing, aid to students,

19:28.525 --> 19:33.345
the importance of providing aid to institutions,

19:33.365 --> 19:36.025
but also the importance of wraparound services.

19:36.825 --> 19:39.685
Um, some of the work that, you know,

19:39.685 --> 19:43.365
colleagues like Susanna Martinez, at UCSF are doing,

19:43.425 --> 19:46.885
and some work that I've done, in collaboration with her,

19:46.885 --> 19:49.805
is looking at the role of basic needs resources.

19:49.825 --> 19:52.365
And this is when, colleges, for example,

19:52.585 --> 19:56.325
PO provide access to food pantries where they provide small,

19:56.945 --> 20:00.365
grants to students to help them with housing

20:00.785 --> 20:02.845
or to, you know, repair a car.

20:03.985 --> 20:04.995
What is the role

20:05.575 --> 20:10.195
of basic providing wraparound basic needs services in,

20:10.545 --> 20:12.995
keeping students enrolled, particularly during times

20:12.995 --> 20:16.635
of crisis and decreasing the likelihood of students leaving

20:16.655 --> 20:19.235
for a semester or potentially leaving,

20:19.255 --> 20:20.835
the institutions permanently.

20:21.335 --> 20:22.915
Um, which has implications particularly

20:23.115 --> 20:25.355
'cause many students are taking on debt to attend

20:26.105 --> 20:28.395
with the expectation that they will graduate.

20:28.495 --> 20:32.515
And yet our graduation rates, for students,

20:32.515 --> 20:35.035
for four year institutions after about six years

20:35.135 --> 20:36.755
or around 60%.

20:36.975 --> 20:41.315
So, you know, it's over certainly over half of students,

20:41.415 --> 20:42.995
and this is for four year institutions.

20:42.995 --> 20:45.515
Rates are certainly lower for completion rates when I,

20:45.515 --> 20:46.795
completion rates are certainly lower

20:46.855 --> 20:49.125
for students attending two year institutions.

20:49.185 --> 20:52.165
So, the implications are how do we,

20:52.305 --> 20:53.765
how do we support our students?

20:54.265 --> 20:58.725
How do we support our families, with the recognition

20:58.725 --> 21:00.965
and how do we actually re-enroll students

21:01.025 --> 21:03.205
who might have left, particularly given

21:03.205 --> 21:05.005
that many students leave for fiscal reasons?

21:05.155 --> 21:07.045
What are ways to bring students back

21:07.065 --> 21:09.605
to complete their degree so that they actually,

21:10.045 --> 21:12.725
derive the benefits of higher education?

21:15.145 --> 21:17.565
Um, so that's sort of conclusions implications.

21:17.625 --> 21:20.765
And then finally, areas for future research.

21:20.905 --> 21:24.445
So, I think there's so many areas for future research.

21:25.145 --> 21:28.725
Um, I think some of the areas for future research include,

21:29.185 --> 21:32.965
as I said, the role of basic needs, the role

21:33.025 --> 21:37.365
of structural support, the roles of, you know,

21:37.365 --> 21:39.725
when courses are delivered, how they're delivered.

21:40.105 --> 21:43.805
Um, the, you know, some of the, a project that I did

21:43.805 --> 21:46.365
with a collaborator, Dominique Baker last year was looking

21:46.545 --> 21:50.445
at, political and other kinds of conditions.

21:50.445 --> 21:52.765
We looked at the role of hate crimes and whether

21:52.765 --> 21:57.005
or not we saw changes in where students enrolled in places

21:57.005 --> 21:58.725
that high, higher levels of hate crimes.

21:59.225 --> 22:01.045
Um, and so I think that there are all these really

22:01.445 --> 22:03.885
fascinating questions to be asked in higher ed,

22:04.425 --> 22:08.205
but for me it's how do we support students not just to get

22:08.225 --> 22:11.845
to higher ed, but to get through higher ed, to complete,

22:11.905 --> 22:16.605
to get their degree and to, finally, you know, much

22:16.605 --> 22:20.245
of my work has been moving past, students are making,

22:20.465 --> 22:21.605
you know, bad decisions

22:21.665 --> 22:23.885
or students are just choosing not to complete.

22:24.645 --> 22:26.645
Students exist within structures, right?

22:26.705 --> 22:28.925
So there's certainly agency, but there are structures.

22:29.145 --> 22:30.565
How do we explore the structures?

22:30.585 --> 22:32.525
How do we figure out what's working for whom

22:32.545 --> 22:34.165
and what condition under what conditions?

Recession Effects on College Enrollment Trends

00:00:00 - We know that there was clearly the great recession that occurred. and part of my interest in the work was prior work that actually demonstrated that in times of recession, and this is people like Betson McFarland in 1995 and Pennington McGinty and Williams in 2002. And part of what they demonstrated was that, when there were economic recessions, people were actually more likely to return to college, in part because unemployment rates were higher. And so, the opportunity cost
00:00:34 - So if they were more likely to be unemployed than they would oftentimes return and be more likely to return to college than they would, during times of, economic prosperity. And so that really sparked my interest in understanding, is this true more broadly? And is this true during a period, of, I would say, you know, sort of greater economic severity. This was the finding in past recessions. But we know part of what happened with the Great Recession, particularly with, you know, people, you know,
00:01:06 - that it was more severe in many ways. We had relatively high rates of unemployment. you know, one study found that the unemployment rate for people under the age of 25 increased from 11.5% in the first quarter of 2008. So at the beginning of the Great Recession to 18.3% by the fourth quarter of 2010. So essentially over a two year period, we see this increase in the unemployment rate, particularly for, persons under the age of 25.
00:01:40 - that people were more likely to return to college. Is this true now? And in particular, given that we know that the Great Recession hit families of color. And when I say families of color, I'm really thinking in this particular study of, black and Latina families, on the one hand, you have these higher unemployment rates. On the other hand, you have families losing
00:02:08 - to be the primary asset, which is the home. Given this reality, were students even able to return to college? And why, why do we care about whether or not they were returning to college? When we think about college, there's clearly this whole debate in the US about college. Is it worth it? Students are taking on debt. And I think those things are true, right? I I think it'd be, careless not to name those realities. And at the same time, in the absence of college,
00:02:41 - for black Latina young adults, what are the other options? What are the ways that you can build skills? What are the ways that you can increase your likelihood of employment? Absolutely. So there is an extensive amount of work that's been done. I mean, I will certainly leave some people out. but I, you know, I think that there's this broad literature, and some of the literature is very descriptive, right? So we think about people like Snyder and Dillo, who, who, named it in 2007, black

Racial Disparities in College Enrollment Patterns

00:03:12 - of college enrollment, in the year following graduation, high school graduation, then their white counterparts. and so if we think about, for example, black enrollment, the enrollment of black young adults, it was about 56%. And this is nationally, about 64% for Latin a students, and about 70%, right? This is the year following high school graduation, for white students. And so part of what we understand is these are not simply individual
00:03:43 - they're about the structures in which they exist. We know that students are not attending the same types of high school. They're not receiving the same types of preparation access to, high quality coursework, things like advanced courses, AP courses. and what's, you know, part of what has really sparked my interest is that this recognition that college enrollment rates certainly differ by race and ethnicity in the United States, but work, for example, done by Cameron
00:04:15 - after you controlled for family background, so right, really thinking about income, black and Latina young adults were actually more likely to enroll. So when we just look at the statistics, we say, they're less likely to enroll. But then when we start controlling, for some of the factors related to enrollment, things like family income, we see that black and Latina students are actually more likely to enroll. we, there's sort of an extensive body of work that, you know, including some work that I've done looking at
00:04:46 - And for black and Latina students, they're as likely, if not more likely, than their peers to say they want to go to college, they intend to go to college. And then we have to think about what are the circumstances in which they're living and learning, and how does that either enable or constrain access to college. finally, we know that there's certainly the role of federal and state financial aid, particularly for students who have, you know, sort of limited access to college.
00:05:18 - and Turner in 2013, looked at the role of financial aid in, mitigating sort of individual and familial credit constraints. and demonstrated that if students had more access to federal and state aid and particularly grants, they were more likely to enroll in colleges compared to students who had lesser access to these grants. and we also know a work by, Musu Gillet, for example, in 2016, Santiago and Cunningham in 2005, that black students are actually,
00:05:50 - and loans, than students from other groups. And so the thought is, if they have access to aid, then they may be able to, in some ways, I don't wanna say overcome, but it may mitigate in some ways some of the structural barriers around lower levels of employment as well as the loss of familial assets. So the dataset was the, current population survey. And in particular, I used the education supplements.

Understanding Methodologies in College Enrollment Research

00:06:22 - Part of the thought is being able to establish pretre, which is important given the methodologies that I use, which was a difference in difference in differences. And the main threats of validity in the difference in difference, which is the two differences, and I'll get to the three differences in a minute, is really thinking about pretre. if you have two different groups that you're looking to compare, we're looking to compare trends, not necessarily the absolute numbers. and so the trends actually need to be parallel.
00:06:53 - before is to have the parallel trends. in terms of the actual dataset, it is, collected on a monthly basis. and it's a random sample of the population of the United States. At the time that I was collecting or using this collected data, it was about 60,000 family units. and part of what they're trying to understand are measures like employment, earnings, and then sort of, sort of other general characteristics of household. it does exclude people who are, institutionalized.
00:07:26 - who might be institutionalized for, health reasons as well as incarcerated. they usually interview a particular household about four times, then they have eight, months where they don't, and then they resurvey it for another four months. and the education supplement in particular is only collected in October. So it is an annual supplement, and it looks at things like school enrollment, educational attainment. you know, for me, part of what it does is also look at, intensity of enrollment.
00:07:57 - Are they going to two year institutions, four year institutions? you know, some of the other factors that I looked at were things like the racial, racial, affiliation of, of individuals in the household, family composition, the financial characteristics of household. and part of the reason I did that was it allowed me to include a whole set of covariates such as, you know, race, ethnicity, gender, whether or not families owned their home employment status of the heads of households, given the sort of analysis that I was doing.
00:08:30 - because part of the approach, which I'll get to once again a little bit later when I start talking about the difference and difference in differences, was thinking about, what is the role of the severity of the reception? For example, in states where we had, sort of greater increases in, in unemployment rates, were we likely to see, more, all right, college enrollment. So were students more likely to enroll because right, the opportunities
00:09:01 - Because if your family members aren't working in theory, you have time to go to college, but you may need to try to find, you know, a part-time gig or, you know, some other kind of, unemploy, some other kind of employment in order to contribute to your household, which is one of the things we've actually seen in this most recent, you know, covid period where students and young people were taking jobs in order to help their families. the, the final, sort of component that I

Analyzing College Enrollment During Economic Recession

00:09:32 - by the federal government, for education related purposes in 2009. so the, the empirical approach is the difference and difference and differences model. This is a quasi experimental approach. So, you know, one of the, realities of education is we often can't run experiments, and particularly during, a recession and the great recession, we can't necessarily assign families to treatment and control conditions.
00:10:01 - what are naturally occurring experiments, and that's what we think when, so that's the approach, right? The quasi experimental approach is essentially, how do I take this natural experiment, and use a methodo methodological approach that uses this, natural variation that's occurring. and so for the triple difference model, the first difference is really to see how enrollment changed over the time period in question. So really thinking pre great recession. And then once we're in the great recession,
00:10:32 - The second is the geographic variation intensity. and that's looking at state's annual unemployment rate, prior to the recession. So looking at 2006 and then looking at 2009. So from 2006 to 2009, what was the change in state's annual unemployment rate? And once again, this is the, to understand, to measure the severity of the recession. and then finally, I am thinking about,
00:11:04 - and how might this be different for, separately model separate models for black students when compared to other students? and how is this different for Latina students when compared to other students? And the final thing that I did, I'm just recognizing that the difference in difference in differences model, like all methodological approaches, like all empirical approaches, has its limitation. I also did, I fit a set of maximum likelihood, multinomial logistic models.
00:11:36 - or compare average probability of college enrollment in two and four year institutions, as opposed to what I did with the difference and difference and differences model, which was really looking at, are you enrolled or not enrolled? The major finding was that, or ma, the major findings were That college enrollment increased by about 2.4 percentage points in states with higher rates of unemployment. So this was overall, right? So when overall in states
00:12:07 - by, state unemployment rates, we actually saw that people were more likely to enroll in college. What's important here is that we, we primarily saw the increase in two year colleges. And what that says to us, or what that at least suggests is that one of the mechanisms is that people who were unemployed were, returning to shorter programs in order to upskill, right?

Skills Training and Enrollment During Recession

00:12:35 - and saying, okay, how do we for some shorter period of time, pot potentially taking a few courses or taking, a certificate program, which would be shorter than the degree program they were going back to, update their skills, potentially receive new skills. and I think that, you know, part of the context here is that, with the Great Recession, there were certainly places where we saw, higher rates of unemployment.
00:13:09 - for example, we saw, you know, huge reductions in the number of homes being built, particularly be because so many people lost their homes, because of the, the mortgage crisis. And so, it could be the case that, in the places we saw higher rates of unemployment, they were also states like Nevada that, had large construction industries that were no longer,
00:13:37 - And so it could have been the case that people were returning to, receive new skills to learn new skills potentially. and, you know, there's not great evidence to change industries. but when we think about two year colleges, we know that the kind of courses that are offered are often, you know, the, the two year institutions are, very diverse institutions, right? so, you know, in many cases they, they provide GED courses, right?
00:14:08 - So people who haven't gotten their, their, their high school diplomas can get their diplomas at these community colleges. they have vocational training. So for example, if you wanted to become, a welder, many of the two year colleges have programs in welding or to become an electrician. So, they're just, you know, in addition, they also have programs in sociology, things that we generally think about for the four year degree. so there is certainly evidence that once again,
00:14:39 - the second part, so that was sort of the first, major finding. The second part was, and does this hold for Black and Latine students? And what I found was that black and Latine students were between two and four percentage points more likely to enroll in college after the onset of the great Recession. however, this was not necessarily this the case in states with higher rates of unemployment. So overall they were more likely to enroll in college. however, part of what this suggests is that, some
00:15:13 - constrained in states with higher rates of unemployment served as a structural barrier for students. and so I think earlier in the conversation, I mentioned, well, I use the word conversation lightly. I mentioned earlier in this monologue, I mentioned that, you know, it could be the case that, black and Latina students were more likely to take on jobs.

Challenges of College Enrollment During Economic Strain

00:15:44 - and Latina students are more likely to be both enrolled in college and working. And this might be one of the reasons that we didn't necessarily see, while we saw overall increases in the likelihood of college enrollment, as I said, on the order of two to four percentage points for black and Latin students, it wasn't necessarily in places that had higher rates of unemployment. the final thing that I'll say is that, in part because of methodology, I interpret, this is a quasi experimental approach, but in part
00:16:19 - the prior trends were not, as parallel that I interpret LA the results for Latin a students with caution. So I always add that caveat. So I would say that part of, and, and you know, one of, one of the lessons from covid and some of the current research that's being done, places like the Community College Research Center at Columbia University and many other places is trying
00:16:48 - what happens when government provides an extensive amount of aid. So part of what the, context, you, you may have to switch the order. 'cause I think I've started off a little bit with implications, not conclusions. but you know, part of, you know, part of what we saw during COVID-19 was that more money was provided. and, and this is the order of billions of dollars to both colleges, and to students in the form of financial aid. And so some of the work that's actually being done
00:17:22 - of severe shock to, the economy, to families, to people's health. What happens when government actually provides additional aid? Does this mitigate some of those effects? and in particular, does it actually help keep people enrolled in college and able to complete? and so the answer to that question is we don't know. So I would absolutely say that that is one future direction for research is
00:17:50 - and provide additional aid. Is it enough? and one of the reasons that this, these questions are complex is it's not just money. It's actually how money is spent, right? It, you know, and some of the money, for example, during covid was spent on computers. it was spent on ensuring students had access to, to wifi and access to networks. you know, one of the things that I found as, a professor at this time was that there were students
00:18:21 - that students had gone home, students didn't have place quiet places where they could do my three hour class. and so there were all of these sort of conditions and right, there were some pretty incredible things that happened, like setting up wifi centers at some of the California community college parking lots so that students could just come and sit in that parking lot and right, and then do their class. But at the same time, if a student had a job, maybe they weren't able to sit and do that class. So I think that, you know, one of the things

Impact of COVID-19 on College Enrollment Trends

00:18:54 - we saw increases in the likelihood of college enrollment for black and Latina students and for all students. however, we saw declines in this most recent COVID-19, particularly in the two year college sector, declines in the likelihood of en enrollment for black and Latin a students and pretty large declines, particularly in the community college sector. Many of the students who are in the community college sector tend to be students from working class families, students who are working full-time. they might be parents themselves.
00:19:25 - was the importance of providing, aid to students, the importance of providing aid to institutions, but also the importance of wraparound services. some of the work that, you know, colleagues like Susanna Martinez, at UCSF are doing, and some work that I've done, in collaboration with her, is looking at the role of basic needs resources. And this is when, colleges, for example,
00:19:56 - grants to students to help them with housing or to, you know, repair a car. What is the role of basic providing wraparound basic needs services in, keeping students enrolled, particularly during times of crisis and decreasing the likelihood of students leaving for a semester or potentially leaving, the institutions permanently. which has implications particularly
00:20:26 - with the expectation that they will graduate. And yet our graduation rates, for students, for four year institutions after about six years or around 60%. So, you know, it's over certainly over half of students, and this is for four year institutions. Rates are certainly lower for completion rates when I, completion rates are certainly lower for students attending two year institutions. So, the implications are how do we, how do we support our students?
00:20:58 - and how do we actually re-enroll students who might have left, particularly given that many students leave for fiscal reasons? What are ways to bring students back to complete their degree so that they actually, derive the benefits of higher education? so that's sort of conclusions implications. And then finally, areas for future research. So, I think there's so many areas for future research.
00:21:29 - as I said, the role of basic needs, the role of structural support, the roles of, you know, when courses are delivered, how they're delivered. the, you know, some of the, a project that I did with a collaborator, Dominique Baker last year was looking at, political and other kinds of conditions. We looked at the role of hate crimes and whether or not we saw changes in where students enrolled in places

Supporting Student Success in Higher Education

00:21:59 - and so I think that there are all these really fascinating questions to be asked in higher ed, but for me it's how do we support students not just to get to higher ed, but to get through higher ed, to complete, to get their degree and to, finally, you know, much of my work has been moving past, students are making, you know, bad decisions or students are just choosing not to complete. Students exist within structures, right? So there's certainly agency, but there are structures.
00:22:32 - How do we figure out what's working for whom and what condition under what conditions?

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